Wednesday, February 6, 2019

Nifty View: Update for 7th Feb 2019

Near Term Trend:  (UP)

Market update: Nifty opened with a gap up around 10980 levels and after that there was no looking back for Nifty & it closed strongly at 11062  levels up 130 points.


It was a strong day for bulls which is totally in line with our view, prediction and expectations. We have been mentioning since last few days that market is carrying lots of momentum this time around and in spite of wide spread skepticism it is capable of breaking above 10985 levels and seeing higher levels from here ( above 11k+) and that's what precisely happened today. We had changed the trend to 'UP'  on budget day when Nifty was around 10840 levels and we continue to maintain the same status even today.
 
Going forward we feel Nifty is likely to maintain the upward momentum for now but that doesn't mean we can not see a fall from these levels of course we can see a fall of 100-150 point anytime (that's totally normal) but that doesn't change the overall trend. To exhibit weakness Nifty has to start closing below previous days low consistently, till the time it start happening we can assume that the up trend will remain intact.

There were lots of apprehensions around 10980 levels and we had also mentioned that whenever any support/resistance level become so obvious, its usually taken out by a gap up/down opening and that is what we witnessed today (even though gap up was not that strong but Nifty was trading at 11020 levels after 10 mins of opening). Many technical indicators have also been pointing out that market trend has now changed to up ( I mentioned MACD which gave a bullish cross over yesterday) which is encouraging sign for bulls.

This consolidation or range bound movement we were witnessing for last 2 months had run its course and there was a strong probability of a breakout pretty soon. Today we got to see the breakout. Also, today was the 6th day of rise from low of 10583 and markets are currently following 4-6 days of alternate bull/bear cycle (i.e. it rises for 4-6 days and then fall for 4-6 days). However the price range ( which was 10600-10980) has been broken which raises the question if the time cycle ( 4-6 days) will be broken as well. After 6 days of rise Nifty has  nearly put on a healthy 450+ points, so one cannot rule out some days of sideways movement/consolidation around these levels  Its important and possible that Nifty digest these gains first before moving further up from here.

One negative thing we can see is that Bank Nifty is giving negative divergence and is still below its previous high. However there are 2 ways to see it, one is that its a weak sign definitely and that movement we are seeing in Nifty is not comprehensive and second contra view is that Nifty has been able to put on all these gains without any help from Bank Nifty and if Bank Nifty also start moving up/catching up then Nifty can easily move much higher from here. Just a food for thought.

We had recommended going long above 10840 levels and if you did then you are already sitting on a profit of 200+ points ( we and our subscribers surely did, we had entered long and have made a decent profit in last 3 days). If you are still holding longs then you are advised to book partial profit and trail the balance longs with strict stop losses. Journey for Nifty going forward is not going to be easy as Nifty has plenty of resistance all the way from 11100 to 11450 levels.


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Happy Trading!!





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