Near Term Trend: ↓ Down
Market update: Nifty opened flat today and crashed to day low of 10620. There were some recovery efforts from oversold zone and Nifty bounced to 10730 ( almost 100 points up from day low) before closing down 20 points at 10724 ( almost flat)
10690-10730 was the last support area we were expecting Nifty to hold on to but even that was broken with a swift action today. At one stage Nifty was even threatening to go below 10583 ( previous swing low) however some late value buying brought some relief. Overall today Nifty witnessed good momentum on the downside and the way crucial support levels were breached today has made it clear that Nifty is in a downtrend only hence inspite of Nifty recovering 100 points from day low and closing flat (above our critical levels), we have changed the near term trend to 'down' now. However that doesn't mean that nifty cannot bounce back. Surely Nifty can still try to make a comeback and rise further 150-200 from these levels but will it be able to sustain it? we doubt that now.
Nifty has been falling in one straight line since last 7 days and fact that the initial fall was devoid of much momentum is also pointing to 1-2 bounces in near future but it remains to be seen how far it can reach and for how long markets can sustain it.
let us take couple of minutes to explain why, inspite of markets falling daily, we were keeping the trend 'up' till now. Last rally that we saw ( from 10583 to 11118) was indeed an impulsive move or a strong thrust and looked like a breakout from trading range market was trapped into for last 2 months. Now as a basic rule no impulsive move should be retraced much below 61.8% ( which was 10787 in this case) now the logic behind this rule is that after a breakout there are will be some traders who are left behind and who couldn't participate in rally so such traders always jumps in after seeing correction and take prices to new highs. Breaking below 61.8% means markets are not seeing buying support which ideally it should have seen. But that still doesn't mean that market is ready for shorting, the thrust or power of previous rally is still very strong and its not possible to negate or overturn it so easily so there are still chances of a meaningful bounce from 75%-80% retracement level ( that bounce may not make a new high but still can go substantially high). But once even that level is breached convincingly (10730-10690 in this case) then there is very little hope of seeing a sustainable recovery. However keep in mind the impact of previous thrust or rally is still pretty strong and is still present, so markets may not go down in immediate term and can still see some bit of bounce and can still see some more time trading around these levels ( just to digest the previous strong thrust) but sooner or later it will give up (unless of course another strong thrust or breakout is witnessed which is pretty rare and usually happens when a pattern has just started developing and not when its about to finish).
Overall from a medium term we were always bearish on markets ( as mentioned in our medium term update) but were expecting this corrective up move to continue for a bit more especially after seeing the rally from10583 to 11100. Previously we kept on projecting levels of 11k+ when everyone was bearish on markets and wasn't expecting Nifty to cross above 10985. Nifty eventually did cross 10985 and achieved 11118 but didn't last for long. However now it looks like the overall corrective pattern ("B" leg from 10K low) is about to finish and a new leg ("C") on the downside is about to begin pretty soon. Still that doesn't mean we are recommending shorts, its just that probability of markets going down and touching new lower levels has increased now ( but dont rule out 100-200 points intraday/short term bounce in the immediate term. When we mark trend "UP" that simply means looking out for trading opportunities on the long side similarly 'down' means now we should be focusing on trading opportunities on short side.
We keep guiding and advising our subscribers through regular intraday whatsapp updates as to what needs to be done during trading hours. If you wish to subscribe to our live whatsapp Nifty calls/trading recommendation then you may subscribe using below link:
http://niftywaveindia.blogspot.com/2019/02/join-us-on-whatsapp-how-to-subscribe.html
You may follow us on Twitter: Nifty Trend @Niftytarget
Happy Trading!!
Market update: Nifty opened flat today and crashed to day low of 10620. There were some recovery efforts from oversold zone and Nifty bounced to 10730 ( almost 100 points up from day low) before closing down 20 points at 10724 ( almost flat)
10690-10730 was the last support area we were expecting Nifty to hold on to but even that was broken with a swift action today. At one stage Nifty was even threatening to go below 10583 ( previous swing low) however some late value buying brought some relief. Overall today Nifty witnessed good momentum on the downside and the way crucial support levels were breached today has made it clear that Nifty is in a downtrend only hence inspite of Nifty recovering 100 points from day low and closing flat (above our critical levels), we have changed the near term trend to 'down' now. However that doesn't mean that nifty cannot bounce back. Surely Nifty can still try to make a comeback and rise further 150-200 from these levels but will it be able to sustain it? we doubt that now.
Nifty has been falling in one straight line since last 7 days and fact that the initial fall was devoid of much momentum is also pointing to 1-2 bounces in near future but it remains to be seen how far it can reach and for how long markets can sustain it.
let us take couple of minutes to explain why, inspite of markets falling daily, we were keeping the trend 'up' till now. Last rally that we saw ( from 10583 to 11118) was indeed an impulsive move or a strong thrust and looked like a breakout from trading range market was trapped into for last 2 months. Now as a basic rule no impulsive move should be retraced much below 61.8% ( which was 10787 in this case) now the logic behind this rule is that after a breakout there are will be some traders who are left behind and who couldn't participate in rally so such traders always jumps in after seeing correction and take prices to new highs. Breaking below 61.8% means markets are not seeing buying support which ideally it should have seen. But that still doesn't mean that market is ready for shorting, the thrust or power of previous rally is still very strong and its not possible to negate or overturn it so easily so there are still chances of a meaningful bounce from 75%-80% retracement level ( that bounce may not make a new high but still can go substantially high). But once even that level is breached convincingly (10730-10690 in this case) then there is very little hope of seeing a sustainable recovery. However keep in mind the impact of previous thrust or rally is still pretty strong and is still present, so markets may not go down in immediate term and can still see some bit of bounce and can still see some more time trading around these levels ( just to digest the previous strong thrust) but sooner or later it will give up (unless of course another strong thrust or breakout is witnessed which is pretty rare and usually happens when a pattern has just started developing and not when its about to finish).
Overall from a medium term we were always bearish on markets ( as mentioned in our medium term update) but were expecting this corrective up move to continue for a bit more especially after seeing the rally from10583 to 11100. Previously we kept on projecting levels of 11k+ when everyone was bearish on markets and wasn't expecting Nifty to cross above 10985. Nifty eventually did cross 10985 and achieved 11118 but didn't last for long. However now it looks like the overall corrective pattern ("B" leg from 10K low) is about to finish and a new leg ("C") on the downside is about to begin pretty soon. Still that doesn't mean we are recommending shorts, its just that probability of markets going down and touching new lower levels has increased now ( but dont rule out 100-200 points intraday/short term bounce in the immediate term. When we mark trend "UP" that simply means looking out for trading opportunities on the long side similarly 'down' means now we should be focusing on trading opportunities on short side.
We keep guiding and advising our subscribers through regular intraday whatsapp updates as to what needs to be done during trading hours. If you wish to subscribe to our live whatsapp Nifty calls/trading recommendation then you may subscribe using below link:
http://niftywaveindia.blogspot.com/2019/02/join-us-on-whatsapp-how-to-subscribe.html
You may follow us on Twitter: Nifty Trend @Niftytarget
Happy Trading!!
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