Monday, February 18, 2019

Nifty View: Update for 19th Feb 2019

Near Term Trend: Down 

Market update: Nifty opened on a positive ground today on the back of positive global cues, however familiar scenario played out yet again and Nifty quickly dropped around 100 points from day high. It closed at 10740 down 85 points.

It was 7th consecutive day fall for Nifty ( 8th for Sensex) and even though Nifty has taken 7 days it still hasn't been able to break below 10583 which was the previous swing low. However that doesn't change anything. Nifty remains in a bear grip and unless it can close above 10900 levels in next 2-3 days, our views will not change.

For short term, since markets are continuously falling, its possible that markets try to make a temp bottom around this area and attempt to make a recovery. How far that recovery can go and for how long it can sustain is something which remains to be seen.

Nifty was continuously making close below previous day low and as a result weakness continued too, but now since last 2 days Nifty has somehow managed a close above previous day low. Today it didn't even make a new day low.

Technically speaking, we are still holding the same view and continue to believe that some more time is possible before Nifty start a new leg on the downside. As mentioned in my short term view (pls ref to below link)
http://niftywaveindia.blogspot.com/2019/02/nifty-update-short-termnear-term-wave.html   

We feel a new corrective  has opened after 'X' wave ( so the overall B leg from the lows of 10K continues for now) and the move we are seeing now is probably the B/C leg of second corrective and larger leg on the down side can begin only when this corrective gets over. As the pattern progresses we will get more clarity on the overall scenario. 

In nutshell, markets remain weak but are oversold so some sharp pull backs in short term can not be ruled out but like I said earlier, its very difficult to comment till where this upmove can stretch (anywhere from 10750-10900 is a possibility).Traders may wait for this upmove to play out and take a short position when it starts fizzling out ( only when it start fizzling out, not before). 

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