Tuesday, February 12, 2019

Nifty View: Update for 13th Feb 2019

Near Term Trend:  (UP)

Market update: Nifty continued with the weak trend and after spending most of its day trading flat, broke down in last hour and closed down 60 points at 10830 levels. 

As the days are passing by, the chorus on the street is growing towards bearish trend in Nifty and that Nifty has started a new leg on the downside. It could be true however till now ( inspite of last 3 continuous days of weakness) the overall structure remain intact by just a slim margin (though its weakening by the hour). Bulls have their back to the wall and one more nudge probably on the downside will actually push it in the bearish zone.

Last 3 days market has given a close below previous days which is actually a big bearish sign. Nifty has very good support at 10800-10830 zone and today Nifty has closed right at the support band. On some occasions its observed that when market closes exactly at the support band, a gap down or gap up opening is seen next day (not always but sometimes so wont be surprised if we see that tomorrow as well).

Major oscillators and indicators on daily charts continue to be in 'buy' mode ( by just a very slim margin) however shorter term indicators have slipped into sell zone which is keeping Nifty under pressure.

If Nifty is in uptrend then it shouldn't be spending too much time below 10900 levels now and it need to give a strong push on the upside pretty soon.Nifty needs to start closing above its previous day high and then go on to make a new high over 11100 levels. Failing to do so could mean that uptrend seems to have gotten over for now.

Even though Nifty has been falling consistently since last 3 days, the momentum shown in the last couple of days is not very convincing and we continue to see positive divergences which makes one question if its just a corrective fall. However please keep in mind that Nifty can still build momentum on the downside ( its not too late for that).

Like we said previously too, for now just be cautious and observant. Nifty looks ready to move in a strong trend and if you trade and get trapped on the wrong side then it will be very difficult to come out of it without suffering a big loss. So if you must trade then do it with small and strict stop losses.


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Happy Trading!!


















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