Tuesday, February 5, 2019

Nifty View: Update for 6th Feb 2019

Near Term Trend:  (UP)

Market update: Nifty opened slightly positive and quickly dropped below 10900 levels however it pulled itself from there and even touched 10960 levels but familiar resistance in 10950-10980 range didn't allow Nifty to move any further. It finally closed at 10930 levels up 20 points.


Overall it was a fairly stable kind of day and even though Nifty didn't give any breakout above the resistance zone, it didn't give any break down either though it threatened to fall in the morning session when it dropped below 10900 levels.

Movement today in Nifty remained more or less in line with the trend we had predicted though we would have liked to see a breakout above 10980 levels however we still have time for that (breakout today was good to have and not must to have).

Markets are slowly but surely inching up as there is lot of skepticism at 10900 levels and buyers are not willing to commit fully at current levels. However everything will change once we have a breakout above 10980 levels. Those who follow MACD they may note it has given a bullish crossover today and it has come after a series of false breakouts and whipsaws  so it will be intresting to see if it turns out to be a false breakout once again.

Its often observed that once a resistance or support becomes too obvious its usually taken out by a gap up or gap down opening. Now I am not saying that is what going to happen tomorrow, but it remains a possibility. On the downside if we start trading below 10890 levels consistently then probably we would need a rethink. Since budget is out of way, VIX has fallen drastically from 18-19 levels to around 15 now and lower VIX  along with positive advance decline ratio should encourage bulls further (Advance decline ratio was 30:19 today).

In nutshell, nothing much changed today. Nifty has been showing sign of strengths ever since it touched 10600 levels 5 days back and slowly but surely inching its way up. Having said this 10900-10980 range remains a critical level to watch and most traders are probably waiting for a breakout above this level. Nifty has been moving up since last 4-5 days and it remains to be seen if Nifty can stretch this up-trend beyond 6 days ( which has been the upper limit since last 2 months).
This rangebound market has more or less run its course and we don't expect it to stretch it much beyond current levels so a breakout (or breakdown) is expected soon now.


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