Monday, February 11, 2019

Nifty View: Update for 12th Feb 2019

Near Term Trend:  (UP)

Market update: Nifty again opened down at 10900 levels and even touched a low of 10860 in the first hour itself. However lack of follow up selling and lackluster trading saw index closing around 10890 levels ( down50 points).

Even though Nifty witnessed another weak session, the momentum on downside was missing today. Nifty made day low within first hour of trading and managed to protect that low throughout the day. We had mentioned in our last post that even though Nifty has weakened considerably, its still in a uptrend and its too early to conclude that a new down trend has started. Same view stands even today as well. Nifty has a strong support at 10800-10850 level and unless same is taken out by force and momentum, it wont be wise to assume that Nifty is done with the uptrend.

Looking only at 'prices' Nifty definitely is under pressure and even broke 10900 levels today. Resistance of 10900-10985 was broken by market after a long consolidation and prices have slipped again in the same range which definitely goes against bulls. However prices movement is just one of the factor and there are other factors too which are suggesting that Nifty can still move up from here. there are many traders who just trade looking at prices (i.e. if Nifty is 11100 go short & if nifty 10500 buy) which is not the right way to trade as there are plenty of things which changes over the time at same price band ( so same price which is  good shorting opportunity, becomes a good buying opportunity later).

Daily oscillators and technical indicators remains in the ' buy mode' and positive divergence with Bank Nifty continues. VIX remains low at 15 so overall its still a mixed bag out there. We have not seen conclusive evidence yet to confirm if a downtrend has started so we are keeping the near term trend as 'up' for now. However since today was second consecutive day where Nifty closed below its previous day low, one should continue to be watchful,observant and cautious for some more time. As per our analysis time for consolidation is already over and we are about to see a trending move pretty soon.

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