Near Term Trend: ↓ Down
Market update: Nifty opened cautiously at 10650 10 points up and slowly & steadily made its way to 10720 levels. However the last hour selling frenzy knocked markets down and it again closed in red at 10604 ( down 35 points).
Today even though Nifty protected previous swing long of 10583 by just couple of points, the equivalent level on Sensex was broken so we have a new low on Sensex charts. But keep in mind in order to break the previous swing low market has taken 8 days while the previous rise from 105853 to 11118 had taken 7 days so its clearly a corrective move. So this break of crucial levels has come one day too late.Also this entire fall ( for most part) was devoid of any strong momentum anyways which we have been mentioning in our posts almost everyday.
Overall market trend remains down as we continue to close below previous day low but this is not a market where one can go and short. Today was the 9th day in a row (for sensex) where it has closed in red. Now this is something very very rare (historically max we have seen markets trending in one direction is around 9-10 days). So markets may be in downtrend for now but they are dangerously close to giving a strong bounce (may be just technical or a deadcat but bounce is a bounce). There are lots of traders banking on 10583 support but since market has already taken so much time the relevance of 10583 is no more there. So there could be a likelihood of a false breakout below 10583 and a sharp recovery from there so please keep that in mind.
Like we have been saying if you want to short then wait for a bounce,let it play out and then only short. Markets are never one sided and they cant keep on falling in a straight line. Inspite of a weak close today the advance decline ratio was positive ( though marginally but this shows that actual force is still missing). Even the bank nifty closed in positive.
In nutshell even though Market remains weak, its not indicating a sharp sell from these levels on the contrary a bounce is very much on the cards (which may or may not sustain). If we do see a bounce then we need to see the nature & momentum of bounce before we conclude further. On the downside even if Nifty break 10583 don't be tempted to short it ( agreed it might just keep on falling for entire session but chances of getting trapped on the wrong side are far greater).
Happy Trading to you!!
Market update: Nifty opened cautiously at 10650 10 points up and slowly & steadily made its way to 10720 levels. However the last hour selling frenzy knocked markets down and it again closed in red at 10604 ( down 35 points).
Today even though Nifty protected previous swing long of 10583 by just couple of points, the equivalent level on Sensex was broken so we have a new low on Sensex charts. But keep in mind in order to break the previous swing low market has taken 8 days while the previous rise from 105853 to 11118 had taken 7 days so its clearly a corrective move. So this break of crucial levels has come one day too late.Also this entire fall ( for most part) was devoid of any strong momentum anyways which we have been mentioning in our posts almost everyday.
Overall market trend remains down as we continue to close below previous day low but this is not a market where one can go and short. Today was the 9th day in a row (for sensex) where it has closed in red. Now this is something very very rare (historically max we have seen markets trending in one direction is around 9-10 days). So markets may be in downtrend for now but they are dangerously close to giving a strong bounce (may be just technical or a deadcat but bounce is a bounce). There are lots of traders banking on 10583 support but since market has already taken so much time the relevance of 10583 is no more there. So there could be a likelihood of a false breakout below 10583 and a sharp recovery from there so please keep that in mind.
Like we have been saying if you want to short then wait for a bounce,let it play out and then only short. Markets are never one sided and they cant keep on falling in a straight line. Inspite of a weak close today the advance decline ratio was positive ( though marginally but this shows that actual force is still missing). Even the bank nifty closed in positive.
In nutshell even though Market remains weak, its not indicating a sharp sell from these levels on the contrary a bounce is very much on the cards (which may or may not sustain). If we do see a bounce then we need to see the nature & momentum of bounce before we conclude further. On the downside even if Nifty break 10583 don't be tempted to short it ( agreed it might just keep on falling for entire session but chances of getting trapped on the wrong side are far greater).
Happy Trading to you!!
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