Thursday, February 21, 2019

Nifty View: Update for 22nd Feb 2019

Near Term Trend: Down 

Market update: Nifty opened cautiously almost at par and kept rising steadily up. It even crossed 10800 levels momentarily and then dipped slightly but again recovered and closed at 10790 levels (up 60 points).

Today was the second consecutive day where Nifty closed above its a previous day high and not only the previous day, market even closed above the high of last 3 days. Last 3 days fall has been retraced in 75% of time which is very fast indeed & is a strong bullish indications. However it still can not be concluded that Nifty has started a new leg on the upside But yes chances have increased that markets can open a new leg on the upside ( but we still need to know for sure).

Nifty has crucial resistance and very critical resistance sitting at 10790-10830 range and today markets closed bang at this critical level. 10790-10830 ( give or take 20-25 points) is a every key pivot point and will probably decide the near term trend for the markets. If markets can overcome and sustain these levels then chances of markets moving up and testing 11K+ levels will increase further.

We mentioned yesterday that the current pull back can continue till 10800 at least, that was the logical target of this pullback, and if its indeed a pullback then we should see a sharp reversal from this zone and on the other hand continuous up move above these levels might indicate that bottom is done for near term. Advance decline ratio continue to be positive at 36:14 for second day in a row.

We had also mentioned that even though near term remains down, it is not a market to create fresh shorts and one should wait for pullback to come first and short only when the pullback start fizzling out. Till today there is no sign that this pull pack is losing any steam and markets are rock steady but of course things can change tomorrow and we see weakness tomorrow then it might indicate that the down trend is continuing in the market for now.

In summary, watch the next couple of trading session carefully, weakness from here will indicate that markets are probably going to test lower levels again  and further strength will probably indicate that bottom is done for time being ( in which case it will be a double bottom at 10585). So one may plan his trading strategies keeping these things in mind.

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