Near Term Trend: ↓ Down
Market update: Nifty Opened strong around 10850 levels but couldn't break free inspite of trying whole day and finally closed at 10790 levels, down 15 points.
A relatively calm expiry day was witnessed today ( especially considering the volatility we have been accustomed to seeing since last few days). Markets are looking a bit tired and 10850-10900 levels continue to pose a considerate amount of resistance to Nifty. It had taken 8 Days for Nifty to fall from 11118 levels to 10585 levels and now after 7 days we are still sitting at 10800 levels which is not even 50% retracement level. So unless Nifty makes a sharp comeback in next 2 days, there is a likelihood of Nifty testing 10600-650 levels again and try building a fresh up leg from there.
We have been saying that Nifty fall from 11118 levels to 10585 levels was slow and it didn't even have any momentum so theres a likelihood of a strong bounce ( sustainability and reach of the bounce was put under question). Now the rise are seeing from 10600 levels, seems to be even slower and erratic ( directionless) hence there is always a risk of market dropping (a bit)again from here and probably try to start an up leg from there.
If you refer to our wave counts ( posted couple of days back), we had mentioned that a triangle seems to be in progress, which was based on the fact that previous fall (marked as B leg) and the current upmove ( marked as C leg) are carrying same characteristics. Now it seems (probably) that C leg has matured and we are into D leg. It remains to be seen for how much time and how far D leg can continue. As per our past experience we have seen that D & E leg can sometimes finish very quickly (even intraday).
In nutshell, it seems markets are tired of moving in this small range of 10500-11000 and breakout seems imminent now. So traders who have been buying nifty at every 200 point dip and selling at every 200 point rise need to be a bit careful. There is no harm in doing such trades however now one needs to be extremely careful. If a trend breaks out on either side one is likely to be trapped. We would like to observe markets carefully for next 2-3 days and if its indeed moving like a triangle like we have been anticipating then there is a possibility of seeing lower levels from here.
Happy Trading!
Market update: Nifty Opened strong around 10850 levels but couldn't break free inspite of trying whole day and finally closed at 10790 levels, down 15 points.
A relatively calm expiry day was witnessed today ( especially considering the volatility we have been accustomed to seeing since last few days). Markets are looking a bit tired and 10850-10900 levels continue to pose a considerate amount of resistance to Nifty. It had taken 8 Days for Nifty to fall from 11118 levels to 10585 levels and now after 7 days we are still sitting at 10800 levels which is not even 50% retracement level. So unless Nifty makes a sharp comeback in next 2 days, there is a likelihood of Nifty testing 10600-650 levels again and try building a fresh up leg from there.
We have been saying that Nifty fall from 11118 levels to 10585 levels was slow and it didn't even have any momentum so theres a likelihood of a strong bounce ( sustainability and reach of the bounce was put under question). Now the rise are seeing from 10600 levels, seems to be even slower and erratic ( directionless) hence there is always a risk of market dropping (a bit)again from here and probably try to start an up leg from there.
If you refer to our wave counts ( posted couple of days back), we had mentioned that a triangle seems to be in progress, which was based on the fact that previous fall (marked as B leg) and the current upmove ( marked as C leg) are carrying same characteristics. Now it seems (probably) that C leg has matured and we are into D leg. It remains to be seen for how much time and how far D leg can continue. As per our past experience we have seen that D & E leg can sometimes finish very quickly (even intraday).
In nutshell, it seems markets are tired of moving in this small range of 10500-11000 and breakout seems imminent now. So traders who have been buying nifty at every 200 point dip and selling at every 200 point rise need to be a bit careful. There is no harm in doing such trades however now one needs to be extremely careful. If a trend breaks out on either side one is likely to be trapped. We would like to observe markets carefully for next 2-3 days and if its indeed moving like a triangle like we have been anticipating then there is a possibility of seeing lower levels from here.
Happy Trading!
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