Wednesday, February 20, 2019

Nifty View: Update for 21st Feb 2019

Near Term Trend: Down 

Market update: Nifty opened strong at 10650 levels today and kept trading between 650-700 levels before short covering propelled it to 10750 levels in last hour and it closed at 10635 up 130 points.

We had mentioned yesterday that Markets are continuously falling since last 8-9 days and it has come dangerously close to giving a strong bounce and today we saw that. There was no rocket science technical analysis involved there and any one could have made out that markets are oversold and one sharp bounce can come anytime. So no surprises here.

Now that we have seen the expected bounce, what next? the real test begins now for the market. It will be interesting to see if markets have it in them to continue the momentum going forward. What is heartening to see is the broad based rally we got to see today. Advance : Decline ratio stood at 44:6 today and we are not sure after how many days market have seen such a good participation across board. Volumes were good too today (higher than last 2 days). As per our analysis market has strong resistance at 10800-10850 zone and this rally may continue till 10800 atleast. But keep in mind if its driven by short covering then it wont last long and soon the downtrend will begin.

For now we will keep the trend as 'down' only. Like we usually say, one day rally in a downtrend doesn't mean anything and doesn't change much. However if markets keep building on strength from here and keep exhibiting strength even over 10850-10900 levels then once again it can touch higher levels ( 11k+).

We mentioned yesterday that even though the trend remains down its not a right market to create shorts. One should wait for the bounce to come and create shorts only when it start fizzling out. Now that the bounce has come one should watch it for some more time and once it starts weakening or fizzling out then only create shorts. But keep in mind if it start spending too much time over 10800 levels then probably its getting ready to test higher levels ( in which case only longs are recommended).

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