Nifty View: Outlook and Trend for 1st Mar 2019

Near Term Trend: ↓ Down 

Market update: Nifty Opened strong around 10850 levels but couldn't break free inspite of trying whole day and finally closed at 10790 levels, down 15 points.

A relatively calm expiry day was witnessed today ( especially considering the volatility we have been accustomed to seeing since last few days). Markets are looking a bit tired and 10850-10900 levels continue to pose a considerate amount of resistance to Nifty. It had taken 8 Days for Nifty to fall from 11118 levels to 10585 levels and now after 7 days we are still sitting at 10800 levels which is not even 50% retracement level. So unless Nifty makes a sharp comeback in next 2 days, there is a likelihood of Nifty testing 10600-650 levels again and try building a fresh up leg from there.

We have been saying that Nifty fall from 11118 levels to 10585 levels was slow and it didn't even have any momentum so theres a likelihood of a strong bounce ( sustainability and reach of the bounce was put under question). Now the rise are seeing from 10600 levels, seems to be even slower and erratic ( directionless) hence there is always a risk of market dropping (a bit)again  from here and probably try to start an up leg from there.

If you refer to  our wave counts ( posted couple of days back), we had mentioned that a triangle seems to be in progress, which was based on the fact that previous fall (marked as B leg) and the current upmove ( marked as C leg) are carrying same characteristics. Now it seems (probably) that C leg has matured and we are into D leg. It remains to be seen for how much time and how far D leg can continue. As per our past experience we have seen that D & E leg can sometimes finish very quickly (even intraday).

In nutshell, it seems markets are tired of moving in this small range of 10500-11000 and breakout seems imminent now. So traders who have been buying nifty at every 200 point dip and selling at every 200 point rise need to be a bit careful. There is no harm in doing such trades however now one needs to be extremely careful. If a trend breaks out on either side one is likely to be trapped. We would like to observe markets carefully for next 2-3 days and if its indeed moving like a triangle like we have been anticipating then there is a possibility of seeing lower levels from here.

Happy Trading!

Nifty View: Update for 28th Feb 2019

Near Term Trend: ↓ Down 

Market update: Nifty Opened strong and traded strong above 10900 however slipped suddenly and fell more than 150 points from days high and dropped to10760 levels. It finally closed with a small loss of around 30 points at 10800 levels.

Todays Opening was crucial, the way nifty opened and traded strong gave a signal that probably yesterdays sharp fall was just a bear trap & now Nifty once again ready to move up. Initial 1st hour of trade was pretty strong and usually (9/10 times) such trades results in very strong moves by market however today was an exception and the initial up move turned out to be a bull trap actually.

Once Nifty broke below 10840-10850 levels it became clear ( almost) that markets are not ready to move up and probably has opened a new leg on the downside. When we say downside we mean there is a real risk of testing 10600-10640 levels once again in near term and if 10600 gets broken this time then we are looking at much lower levels (10200-10300 or even lower).

Technically speaking, it seems C leg was done on the upside and D leg has started on the downside. Now it remains when and where this D leg ends and final E leg begins. (for wave counts ref my previous posts).

In terms of trading dynamics Diametric patterns are most difficult to trade and after diametric comes triangles. What we are seeing in this move after 10K levels ( from Oct lows) is a combination of Diametric and Triangle. Both these patterns combining together are giving an extremely tough time to traders. Reason they are tough to trade is because they are erratic and as per neo wave  they are virtually exception to every rule in the books.

Having said this, there is no reason to despise or hate triangles/Diametrics in spite of the fact that they are tough to trade and can cause a string of bad trades for one simple reason- The trend which follows once these patterns are complete is directional & pretty straight forward and if one has patience to remain invested he can easily reap the rewards later.
 

Nifty View: Update for 27th Feb 2019

Near Term Trend: ↓ Down 

Market update: Nifty Opened with a gap down of 50 odd points which stretched to 150 points due to geopolitical tensions but an immediate buying spree erased all the losses & even pushed Nifty in green momentarily. Nifty finally closed a loss of 45 points at 10835.

We had mentioned yesterday that even though Nifty has put on 4 days of gain & has crossed 10850 levels, the entire rise or up move is appearing slow and we need to wait for one more day to see if markets can add any gain over and above yesterdays close. Today market just crumpled in initial hours which of course is being attributed to geopolitical tensions however technicals were already pointing to another leg down ( ref to the wave counts posted in yesterdays post).

So what next? The fact that Nifty erased most of the losses today and closed just 40 odd points down will be seen as positive by many. However we are seeing it as failure by markets to close above previous day high and add any significant gains. In other words market remains in 'down trend' and need another strong push. Merely recovering from day low is not good enough, markets need to add point above previous day close.

Both Sensex & Nifty made a Doji candle today, Doji signifies indecisiveness. When markets crashed 150 points bulls knew they needed to support and pushed markets back up but once it reached yesterdays close point and started trading flat, they were clueless and lacked the strength to carry it forward. If it was a strong market then it should have  made a strong close today above 10900 levels.

Technically speaking, wave count remains same as posted yesterday and it remains to be seen if C leg has ended or still ongoing.

 In summary, todays recovery action by bulls is marked as an indecisive act by bulls where they managed to pull back from day lows but lacked the strength to take it forward (It can still be done tomorrow).Bulls needs to reassert themselves very strongly from here, they might have succeeded in pulling markets from disaster zone but that is not enough. They need to deliver more and deliver fast else wont be surprised to see bears taking control of the markets once again.


Jai Hind,Bravo to Indian armed forces & happy Trading to you!!



 

Nifty View: Update for 26th Feb 2019

Near Term Trend: ↓ Down 

Market update: Nifty opened almost flat (inspite of an overnight rally in US stocks and strong Asian markets) but recovered later and finally closed strong at 10880, up almost 90 points.

We had mentioned that 10800-10850 is a very key resistance zone for Nifty and if Nifty is able to cross it with momentum then probably we can see higher levels in Nifty. Nifty did cross it however the momentum was not very convincing (inspite of 90 points rally today). Ideally Nifty should have broken 10850 on Friday itself or in the first hour of trading today. So even though 10850 has been broken its not done convincingly ( as we would have liked to see) hence we are keeping the near term trend as down only, we need to see further strength in market tomorrow above these levels to change the trend to 'UP'.

At the time of writing this post, Dow future is up 160 points and SGX Nifty is trading strong, however its looking difficult that Nifty will be able to add any significant gain immediately from current levels simply because markets have turned overbought on short term charts so little bit of cooling off is expected.

The fall we saw from 11018 to 10585 though it was in one single line it was not very convincing now this rise which we are seeing from 10585 is carrying the same characteristics too and again is not very convincing ( specially the last 2 days). This could be on account of short covering, when Nifty had broken 10600 levels few days back many traders and brokerage houses had gone short but market reversed the very next day forcing traders to cover those short position. It will be interesting to see if market can see some followup buying once the short covering is out of way.

Having said this, the advance decline ratio continues to be positive running 4th day in a row which is a positive sign and PCR continue to be in favour of bulls.



Nifty

Technically speaking, Like we mentioned above that this rise is also carrying the same characteristics which we got to see in the previous fall. Such similarity is symptomatic and indicative of triangular movement. Tt seems since hitting the low of 10583 earlier this month ( which is marked as wave 'X') markets are making a triangle which is currently in 'C' leg & this pattern can continue till the pending 2 more legs D & E finishes too  (but keep in mind D& E leg can be pretty small and finish quickly).

B leg retraced almost 100% of the A leg and now C leg has retraced almost 50% of the B leg. We need to see if this C leg ends here and D legs open up again.

 Happy Trading!

Nifty View: Update for 25th Feb 2019

Near Term Trend: ↓ Down 

Market update: Nifty opened flat , traded flat and closed flat.

Even thought market didn't move much ( infact didn't move at all) but the fact that it held the gains of previous days, continue to point in the direction that probably the down move is done for the time being. However not all is lost for Bears yet. Markets have still closed below the extremely crucial zone of 10800-10850 which should keep the bears morale high going into the weekend.

For bearish trend to resume we need a strong fall below 10700 levels now and on the contrary if bulls manage to push markets a little more from here and sustain it then probably we can see this upmove stretching a bit more from here.

What is heartening  to see is the consistent positive breadth of the markets. 3rd day running the advance decline ratio was positive (34:16). Participation across the board has been good which is something missing from the markets for quite a while. However it will take just 1 bad day to put things back where they started from.

So for now we will keep the trend as 'Down' only but we are probably one just one more nudge away from changing it to "UP" but no point in anticipating it and we will believe it when we see it. For now refrain from taking positions at current prices and like we have been saying, let markets show signs of weakness ( if you want to create shorts) which are still not visible or wait for 10800-850 to be taken out if you want to go long. Current level is basically a no-mans land and such flat trading today indicates only one thing. Markets are creating a base/pad to launch its next move.

Technically we continue to be inside this complex corrective however like we said in previous post, there are plenty of indications which are telling that not much time remaining for it to be over.

We keep guiding and advising our subscribers through regular intraday whatsapp updates as to what needs to be done during trading hours. If you wish to subscribe to our live whatsapp Nifty calls/trading recommendation then you may subscribe using below link:

http://niftywaveindia.blogspot.com/2019/02/join-us-on-whatsapp-how-to-subscribe.html


You may follow us on Twitter: Nifty Trend @Niftytarget 



 

Nifty View: Update for 22nd Feb 2019

Near Term Trend: ↓ Down 

Market update: Nifty opened cautiously almost at par and kept rising steadily up. It even crossed 10800 levels momentarily and then dipped slightly but again recovered and closed at 10790 levels (up 60 points).

Today was the second consecutive day where Nifty closed above its a previous day high and not only the previous day, market even closed above the high of last 3 days. Last 3 days fall has been retraced in 75% of time which is very fast indeed & is a strong bullish indications. However it still can not be concluded that Nifty has started a new leg on the upside But yes chances have increased that markets can open a new leg on the upside ( but we still need to know for sure).

Nifty has crucial resistance and very critical resistance sitting at 10790-10830 range and today markets closed bang at this critical level. 10790-10830 ( give or take 20-25 points) is a every key pivot point and will probably decide the near term trend for the markets. If markets can overcome and sustain these levels then chances of markets moving up and testing 11K+ levels will increase further.

We mentioned yesterday that the current pull back can continue till 10800 at least, that was the logical target of this pullback, and if its indeed a pullback then we should see a sharp reversal from this zone and on the other hand continuous up move above these levels might indicate that bottom is done for near term. Advance decline ratio continue to be positive at 36:14 for second day in a row.

We had also mentioned that even though near term remains down, it is not a market to create fresh shorts and one should wait for pullback to come first and short only when the pullback start fizzling out. Till today there is no sign that this pull pack is losing any steam and markets are rock steady but of course things can change tomorrow and we see weakness tomorrow then it might indicate that the down trend is continuing in the market for now.

In summary, watch the next couple of trading session carefully, weakness from here will indicate that markets are probably going to test lower levels again  and further strength will probably indicate that bottom is done for time being ( in which case it will be a double bottom at 10585). So one may plan his trading strategies keeping these things in mind.

We keep guiding and advising our subscribers through regular intraday whatsapp updates as to what needs to be done during trading hours. If you wish to subscribe to our live whatsapp Nifty calls/trading recommendation then you may subscribe using below link:

http://niftywaveindia.blogspot.com/2019/02/join-us-on-whatsapp-how-to-subscribe.html


You may follow us on Twitter: Nifty Trend @Niftytarget  

Nifty View: Update for 21st Feb 2019

Near Term Trend: ↓ Down 

Market update: Nifty opened strong at 10650 levels today and kept trading between 650-700 levels before short covering propelled it to 10750 levels in last hour and it closed at 10635 up 130 points.

We had mentioned yesterday that Markets are continuously falling since last 8-9 days and it has come dangerously close to giving a strong bounce and today we saw that. There was no rocket science technical analysis involved there and any one could have made out that markets are oversold and one sharp bounce can come anytime. So no surprises here.

Now that we have seen the expected bounce, what next? the real test begins now for the market. It will be interesting to see if markets have it in them to continue the momentum going forward. What is heartening to see is the broad based rally we got to see today. Advance : Decline ratio stood at 44:6 today and we are not sure after how many days market have seen such a good participation across board. Volumes were good too today (higher than last 2 days). As per our analysis market has strong resistance at 10800-10850 zone and this rally may continue till 10800 atleast. But keep in mind if its driven by short covering then it wont last long and soon the downtrend will begin.

For now we will keep the trend as 'down' only. Like we usually say, one day rally in a downtrend doesn't mean anything and doesn't change much. However if markets keep building on strength from here and keep exhibiting strength even over 10850-10900 levels then once again it can touch higher levels ( 11k+).

We mentioned yesterday that even though the trend remains down its not a right market to create shorts. One should wait for the bounce to come and create shorts only when it start fizzling out. Now that the bounce has come one should watch it for some more time and once it starts weakening or fizzling out then only create shorts. But keep in mind if it start spending too much time over 10800 levels then probably its getting ready to test higher levels ( in which case only longs are recommended).

We keep guiding and advising our subscribers through regular intraday whatsapp updates as to what needs to be done during trading hours. If you wish to subscribe to our live whatsapp Nifty calls/trading recommendation then you may subscribe using below link:

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You may follow us on Twitter: Nifty Trend @Niftytarget 



Happy Trading!


 

Nifty View: Update for 20th Feb 2019

Near Term Trend: ↓ Down 

Market update: Nifty opened cautiously at 10650 10 points up and slowly & steadily made its way to 10720 levels. However the last hour selling frenzy knocked markets down and it again closed in red at 10604 ( down 35 points).

Today even though Nifty protected previous swing long of 10583 by just couple of points, the equivalent level on Sensex was broken so we have a new low on Sensex charts. But keep in mind in order to break the previous swing low market has taken 8 days while the previous rise from 105853 to 11118 had taken 7 days so its clearly a corrective move. So this break of crucial levels has come one day too late.Also this entire fall ( for most part) was devoid of any strong momentum anyways which we have been mentioning in our posts almost everyday.

Overall market trend remains down as we continue to close below previous day low but this is not a market where one can go and short. Today was the 9th day in a row (for sensex) where it has closed in red. Now this is something very very rare (historically max we have seen markets trending in one direction is around 9-10 days). So markets may be in downtrend for now but they are dangerously close to giving a strong bounce (may be just technical or a deadcat but bounce is a bounce). There are lots of traders banking on 10583 support but since market has already taken so much time the relevance of 10583 is no more there. So there could be a likelihood of a false breakout below 10583 and a sharp recovery from there so please keep that in mind.

Like we have been saying if you want to short then wait for a bounce,let it play out and then only short. Markets are never one sided and they cant keep on falling in a straight line. Inspite of a weak close today the advance decline ratio was positive ( though marginally but this shows that actual force is still missing). Even the bank nifty closed in positive.

In nutshell even though Market remains weak, its not indicating a sharp sell from these levels on the contrary a bounce is very much on the cards (which may or may not sustain). If we do see a bounce then we need to see the nature & momentum of bounce before we conclude further. On the downside even if Nifty break 10583 don't be tempted to short it ( agreed it might just keep on falling for entire session but chances of getting trapped on the wrong side are far greater).

Happy Trading to you!!
 

Nifty View: Update for 19th Feb 2019

Near Term Trend: ↓ Down 

Market update: Nifty opened on a positive ground today on the back of positive global cues, however familiar scenario played out yet again and Nifty quickly dropped around 100 points from day high. It closed at 10740 down 85 points.

It was 7th consecutive day fall for Nifty ( 8th for Sensex) and even though Nifty has taken 7 days it still hasn't been able to break below 10583 which was the previous swing low. However that doesn't change anything. Nifty remains in a bear grip and unless it can close above 10900 levels in next 2-3 days, our views will not change.

For short term, since markets are continuously falling, its possible that markets try to make a temp bottom around this area and attempt to make a recovery. How far that recovery can go and for how long it can sustain is something which remains to be seen.

Nifty was continuously making close below previous day low and as a result weakness continued too, but now since last 2 days Nifty has somehow managed a close above previous day low. Today it didn't even make a new day low.

Technically speaking, we are still holding the same view and continue to believe that some more time is possible before Nifty start a new leg on the downside. As mentioned in my short term view (pls ref to below link)
http://niftywaveindia.blogspot.com/2019/02/nifty-update-short-termnear-term-wave.html   

We feel a new corrective  has opened after 'X' wave ( so the overall B leg from the lows of 10K continues for now) and the move we are seeing now is probably the B/C leg of second corrective and larger leg on the down side can begin only when this corrective gets over. As the pattern progresses we will get more clarity on the overall scenario. 

In nutshell, markets remain weak but are oversold so some sharp pull backs in short term can not be ruled out but like I said earlier, its very difficult to comment till where this upmove can stretch (anywhere from 10750-10900 is a possibility).Traders may wait for this upmove to play out and take a short position when it starts fizzling out ( only when it start fizzling out, not before). 

We keep guiding and advising our subscribers through regular intraday whatsapp updates as to what needs to be done during trading hours. If you wish to subscribe to our live whatsapp Nifty calls/trading recommendation then you may subscribe using below link:

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You may follow us on Twitter: Nifty Trend @Niftytarget 

Nifty Cyclical Moves/Time cycle corrections

While its important to look at prices, its also important to look at time cycles. Some times time cycles works better than any other technical phenomenon. Trading or price movement is basically an outcome  of traders behavior, psychology or emotions and its often observed that a particular behavior or emotion can only last upto a certain period or time. Hence at times we keep seeing rallies even when news flow is bad and keep seeing selling pressure when everything is good.

As per our views and observations, we have seen that markets usually follow 3 time cycles for corrections

1.Very rare:.50-60% These are basically stock market routs and are not very common

2.Rare: 25-30% corrections-these are some big corrections and are often seen once in 3-5 years

3.Common : 10-15% Correction- which can be termed as commonly occurring or business as usual and often see almost every other year

No.3 (10-15% correction) is pretty common so we are not going to discuss it but lets see a bit more of no.1 &2.



Nifty

Very rare 50-60%:  These are stock market routs which comes and changes the entire perspective or gamplay. Impact of such corrections are huge and their impression can be felt for years to come. Like we said such corrections are pretty rare and in our Indias context these are seen once every 8-10 years.

• First one was in 1992 ( the Famous Harshad Mehta scam) when stock market had lost more than 50%.
• Second rout came exactly 8 years after in Year in 2000 ( dot com bubble): when sensex fell from 6K levels to less than 3K
• Last rout we saw was way back in 2008 (Housing /Lehman Bros crisis) When there was a deep correction of 60% and Senses plunged from 21K levels to less than 10K & Nifty from ( 6k to sub 3k).

Looking at time cycles one can argue that another stock market rout is already due &  it remains to be seen if it comes and what will be the news/root cause behind it.

Rare 25-30%:Another mid level correction which is often observed is 25-30% these are not very common but still observed after 4-5 years. Since 2008 we have observed this correction twice.

• Once in 2010-11 when Nifty fell from 6k levels to less than 5K
• Second in 2015-16 when Nifty fell from 9k levels to 7k levels.

Looking at these time cycles one can argue even the 25-30% correction is due now in 2019. However keep in mind we have already seen a correction of 15% ( from top of 11750). So it remains to be seen what we are witnessing now remains a normal correction ( 10-15% which is already done) or turns into something bigger ( 25-30% which even current time cycle are projecting) or turns into something even  bigger and catastrophic and just destroys everything.

Just a food for thought!

Nifty View: Update for 18th Feb 2019

Near Term Trend: ↓ Down 

Market update: Nifty opened flat today and crashed to day low of 10620. There were some recovery efforts from oversold zone and Nifty bounced to 10730 ( almost 100 points up from day low) before closing down 20 points at 10724 ( almost flat)

10690-10730 was the last support area we were expecting Nifty to hold on to but even that was broken with a swift action today. At one stage Nifty was even threatening to go below 10583 ( previous swing low) however some late value buying brought some relief. Overall today Nifty witnessed good momentum on the downside and the way crucial support levels were breached today has made it clear that Nifty is in a downtrend only hence inspite of Nifty recovering 100 points from day low and closing flat (above our critical levels), we have changed the near term trend to 'down' now. However that doesn't mean that nifty cannot bounce back. Surely Nifty can still try to make a comeback and rise further 150-200 from these levels but will it be able to sustain it? we doubt that now.

Nifty has been falling in one straight line since last 7 days and fact that the initial fall was devoid of much momentum is also pointing to 1-2 bounces in near future but it remains to be seen how far it can reach and for how long markets can sustain it.

let us take couple of minutes to explain why, inspite of markets falling daily, we were keeping the trend 'up' till now. Last rally that we saw ( from 10583 to 11118) was indeed an impulsive move or a strong thrust and looked like a breakout from trading range market was trapped into for last 2 months. Now as a basic rule no impulsive move should be retraced much below 61.8% ( which was 10787 in this case) now the logic behind this rule is that after a breakout there are will be some traders who are left behind and who couldn't participate in rally so such traders always jumps in after seeing correction and take prices to new highs. Breaking below 61.8% means markets are not seeing buying support which ideally it should have seen. But that still doesn't mean that market is ready for shorting, the thrust or power of previous rally is still very strong and its not possible to negate or overturn it so easily so there are still chances of a meaningful bounce from 75%-80% retracement level ( that bounce may not make a new high but still can go substantially high). But once even that level is breached convincingly (10730-10690 in this case) then there is very little hope of seeing a sustainable recovery. However keep in mind the impact of previous thrust or rally is still pretty strong and is still present, so markets may not go down in immediate term and can still see some bit of bounce and can still see some more time trading around these levels ( just to digest the previous strong thrust) but sooner or later it will give up (unless of course another strong thrust or breakout is witnessed which is pretty rare and usually happens when a pattern has just started developing and not when its about to finish).

Overall from a medium term we were always bearish on markets ( as mentioned in our medium term update) but were expecting this corrective up move to continue for a  bit more especially after seeing the rally from10583 to 11100. Previously we kept on projecting levels of 11k+  when everyone was bearish on markets and wasn't expecting Nifty to cross above 10985. Nifty eventually did cross 10985 and  achieved 11118 but didn't last for long. However now it looks like the overall corrective pattern ("B" leg from 10K low) is about to finish and a new leg ("C") on the downside is about to begin pretty soon. Still that doesn't mean we are recommending shorts, its just that probability of markets going down and touching new lower levels has increased now ( but dont rule out 100-200 points intraday/short term bounce in the immediate term. When we mark trend "UP" that simply means looking out for trading opportunities on the long side similarly 'down' means now we should be focusing on trading opportunities on short side.


We keep guiding and advising our subscribers through regular intraday whatsapp updates as to what needs to be done during trading hours. If you wish to subscribe to our live whatsapp Nifty calls/trading recommendation then you may subscribe using below link:

http://niftywaveindia.blogspot.com/2019/02/join-us-on-whatsapp-how-to-subscribe.html


You may follow us on Twitter: Nifty Trend @Niftytarget

Happy Trading!!

Nifty View: Update for 15th Feb 2019

Near Term Trend: ↑ UP

Market udate: Nifty opened weak and didn't trade in green even for a moment. Towards the mid session it threatened to break below 10700 but didn't and closed down almost 50 points down at  10746 levels.

Overall todays session was again in line with what has been happening since last 5-6 days. Only thing is Nifty didn't see any selling pressure in the last hour ( since last 5 days Nifty has been seeing a sell off after 2.30PM). We had mentioned in our post yesterday that we would like to see if Nifty takes support at 75-80% retracement level which is sitting at 10716-10692. Today market tested the exact 75% retracement level (10718) and managed a small bounce from there. Even though it wasn't much but atleast markets shown some bit of respect to it. So for now we are keeping the status unchanged.

Now we need to see if markets can build on something from here and try to salvage some of the lost pride. Nifty/Sensex have been falling since last 6 days and markets can not be so much one sided sooner or later a corrective bounce will come. Even the sellers looked tired today. We have been saying that even though markets are getting weaker by day they are lacking momentum. Today was no different.

All the negative things we mentioned yesterday about market stays intact even today and one more thing have been added to it. Oscillators and indicators have started turning down & in "sell" mode one by one. Still we believe that probability of markets bouncing from here ( even if its just a technical bounce) is open.We also saw positive divergence today with bank nifty which closed in  +ve territory

Technically no change in our midterm/near term outlook which we posted couple of days back. Nifty remains in a corrective leg ( from lows of 10K) and it seems some more parts to this corrective legs are still pending and Nifty will resume its downtrend only when all parts are complete.

You may ref http://niftywaveindia.blogspot.com/search/label/Nifty%20Specials for the detailed wave count and analysis.

Markets are very close to being in oversold territory so if one is planning a short then keep a tight stop loss as short covering/value buying can bring some relief . Fresh shorts are actually not recommended at these level.

We keep guiding and advising our subscribers through regular intraday whatsapp updates as to what needs to be done during trading hours. If you wish to subscribe to our live whatsapp Nifty calls/trading recommendation then you may subscribe using below link:

http://niftywaveindia.blogspot.com/2019/02/join-us-on-whatsapp-how-to-subscribe.html

Happy Trading to you!!

Nifty View: Update for 14th Feb 2019

Near Term Trend: ↑ UP

Market update: Nifty continued with its weak trend and inspite of a strong overnight rally by US stocks Nifty tanked and closed below 10800 levels.

We had mentioned yesterday that bulls have their back at the wall and one more nudge will probably push Nifty in the bearish zone. Although we did get that nudge today and Nifty even broke below its crucial support of 10800-10820 we still would like to see and observe markets a little more before we conclude that trend has indeed changed down. Reason for not doing so even now is the lack of momentum. We don't have the momentum which ideally we should have seen. Nifty has lots of things going against it, like:-

•  It has returned to the range it broke after 2 month of hardwork (back to below 10900 levels)
• Broke below 61.8% retracement level of the recent rise today ( 10787) though marginally and adjusted closed was just above it
• 4th consecutive day of lower low (closing below previous days low consistently)
• Breaking below previous week low ( 10822)
• Making top ( 11118) on a day of good news and +ve sentiments (rate cut)

Now all these things are definitely pointing in the direction that markets are weak and getting weaker by the day but still there are few things which are suggesting caution against going short at this stage,like-

• Lack of momentum: Momentum is missing for most part and if you analyze hourly chart you will notice that most falls are coming only in last hour
• Positive divergence in RSI ( which still continues on some time scales)
• PCR (1.2) dropping but continues to be in favour of bulls
• Lower VIX: Inspite of markets falling daily VIX is not budging and not moving up

Now we may ignore most things but lack of momentum is something which can not be ignored. When market falls without momentum its usually a sign of corrective fall. Now a corrective fall can extend and move a bit higher/lower than the expected levels but all corrective moves result only in one thing i.e. markets reversing when they are over. Now we are not saying with absolute surety that its a corrective fall, its just that the indications we are getting are suggesting and there is a possibility. Now market can start building momentum from tomorrow onwards and prove its not a corrective fall which can certainly happen but for now we need to see more evidence. There is no harm in waiting on sidelines if one is not sure.

We have seen that market broke below 61.8% retracement level (10787) today but it was not very convincing now we need to watch next critical support level ( 75%-80%) which  stands at 10716-10690. Now this level assumes lot of significance as the entire rally we saw ( 10583-11118) actually started from this level only when Nifty opened with a gapup at 10690 levels on 31st Jan.

So in nutshell, nifty continues to be weak and one should continue to be observant and watchful for some more time and if one must trade then trade with strict stop losses. We need to see if Nifty respect 10700 or even that is taken out in coming days.

Happy Trading!!