Friday, January 4, 2019

Nifty View: Update for 7th Jan 2019

Near Term Trend:   (Down)

Market update: Nifty opened on a positive note today shrugging the massive 600 point overnight fall in US stocks but selling soon emerged and took Nifty below 10650 however bulls again pulled the index back to 10700+ levels. After few wild swings Nifty final closed at 10727 ( up 57 points).

Nifty overall has a good support in 10640-10710 level range and even though same was broken during intraday, the final closing was above this level only. To change the current trend Nifty must start trading positively above 10750 levels and make a close above 10800 levels on Monday. Till that happens, we will continue with our bearish stand. On the other hand,for downward trend to pick speed, we must see a close below 10600 soon.

Overall indicators were pointing toward a short term bounce today and that's the reason we covered part of our short today (@10640). Now ideally this pullback should fizzle out soon and Nifty should resume its downtrend, however a strength in Nifty from here onwards would mean that this pull back might extend. We need to observe next few trading session to decide our next trading strategy.

Critical thing to note is that support area for Nifty is extending with each week. First there was a sharp intraday recovery from 10340 levels ( election day result) then we had sharp intraday recovery from 10530 levels few days back and today we have seen a sharp recovery from 10640 levels. So support area is moving up and its compressing the price action. Once this compression is complete, Nifty will explode( up or down). This usually happens when markets are preparing to move big in either direction. We need to be very careful now as markets are about to give a break up pretty soon. That's the reason I mentioned in my previous note that one should keep the traded qty in check. Keep position light.

Technically speaking, there is no change in my previous wave count and I still believe markets are making a diametric ( or complex corrective) from lows of 10k.

Trading recommendations: We exited part short ( 1 part) today @ 10640 levels and even did one intraday small trade. Still holding the balance shorts for now and will square off or add more shorts depending on which way market start trending.

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Have a nice weekend




  

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