Near Term Trend: ↔ (sideways)
Market update: Nifty opened on a positive note today above 10900 however fell flat again and saw an increase in selling pressure towards the end. It gave up 160 point from day high and finally closed 70 point down at 10780 levels.
Today bears ruled and they totally controlled markets no doubt about that. There were many indicators which were pointing to one more leg up in next few days to 11K+ levels. We were moderately bullish on the markets in near term and have been saying this for last few days. However markets have shown they are not in the mood to go up immediately. So we were wrong in short term this time no two way about it and humbly accept the same but does that mean near term trend has turned bearish? Answer is no not yet (not in our opinion). let me try and explain.
Today when markets fell it fell with momentum and impulse (Something which was missing since last few days) but its a classic case of "too little too late". In the very short term yes it might have some impact but overall in medium term perspective it doesn't change anything. Today is already the fourth day of the fall from 10985 levels. It had taken Nifty 5 days to reach 10987 from 10700 and now it has already consumed 4 days but 10700 is still intact. Fall we are seeing since last few weeks is having too many overlapping waves so for immediate short term may be yes we have momentum on the downside and the risk have increased a bit but overall it remains a corrective and sideways move which can stretch for few more days but not many.
We were of the opinion that time for choppiness and consolidation is over and Nifty should start breaking free but it seems some more time is pending for that. Since we saw some impulse in todays fall, its possible that market fall some more from these levels (even retest levels of 10600-10650 or even lower) but that would still be part of ongoing consolidation only which means a move up is still pending only thing which has changed is that it may not start from 10800-10900 levels as we were thinking initially but there is a possibility that markets go down a little more from here and then start moving up (from 10600-10700 or lower levels). We need to observe markets carefully over next few days to see how its behaving and accordingly plan our next move.
Another important thing to note is that ever since market hit 10K levels in Oct'18 it has always fallen 4 days max in a row ( made 4 consecutive lower lows). Only exception is the election day result time when Nifty fell for 6 days and hit 10340 levels. Now since 4 days have already gone we can expect 1-2 days for fall more before Bulls attempt to make another comeback. How successful they will be that remains to be seen.
Trading recommendations: Considering the choppiness we are witnessing its prudent to sit on cash wait for markets to give a clear breakout first. I don't recommend going short but waiting for right moment to go long.
Have a nice weekend!
Market update: Nifty opened on a positive note today above 10900 however fell flat again and saw an increase in selling pressure towards the end. It gave up 160 point from day high and finally closed 70 point down at 10780 levels.
Today bears ruled and they totally controlled markets no doubt about that. There were many indicators which were pointing to one more leg up in next few days to 11K+ levels. We were moderately bullish on the markets in near term and have been saying this for last few days. However markets have shown they are not in the mood to go up immediately. So we were wrong in short term this time no two way about it and humbly accept the same but does that mean near term trend has turned bearish? Answer is no not yet (not in our opinion). let me try and explain.
Today when markets fell it fell with momentum and impulse (Something which was missing since last few days) but its a classic case of "too little too late". In the very short term yes it might have some impact but overall in medium term perspective it doesn't change anything. Today is already the fourth day of the fall from 10985 levels. It had taken Nifty 5 days to reach 10987 from 10700 and now it has already consumed 4 days but 10700 is still intact. Fall we are seeing since last few weeks is having too many overlapping waves so for immediate short term may be yes we have momentum on the downside and the risk have increased a bit but overall it remains a corrective and sideways move which can stretch for few more days but not many.
We were of the opinion that time for choppiness and consolidation is over and Nifty should start breaking free but it seems some more time is pending for that. Since we saw some impulse in todays fall, its possible that market fall some more from these levels (even retest levels of 10600-10650 or even lower) but that would still be part of ongoing consolidation only which means a move up is still pending only thing which has changed is that it may not start from 10800-10900 levels as we were thinking initially but there is a possibility that markets go down a little more from here and then start moving up (from 10600-10700 or lower levels). We need to observe markets carefully over next few days to see how its behaving and accordingly plan our next move.
Another important thing to note is that ever since market hit 10K levels in Oct'18 it has always fallen 4 days max in a row ( made 4 consecutive lower lows). Only exception is the election day result time when Nifty fell for 6 days and hit 10340 levels. Now since 4 days have already gone we can expect 1-2 days for fall more before Bulls attempt to make another comeback. How successful they will be that remains to be seen.
Trading recommendations: Considering the choppiness we are witnessing its prudent to sit on cash wait for markets to give a clear breakout first. I don't recommend going short but waiting for right moment to go long.
Have a nice weekend!
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