Near Term Trend: ↔ (sideways with a downward bias)
Market update: It was another bad for Nifty. It managed to open in a slightly positive territory but soon selling emerged and it kept getting intensified as the trading progressed and the pressure was visible till the very end. There was just one final small push from the previous low of 10630 which supported Nifty during the closing hours. Still markets closed with a substantial 120 point loss at 10661 levels.
Overall it was another day where Nifty fell with momentum, actually the momentum was even stronger today than it was there on Friday. Nifty had a crucial support at 10692 which was breached with ease in the morning session itself. Bulls needed to defend it to rekindle any hope of an immediate revival but they failed miserably.
We had been saying that there was still a chance of markets pushing for one more leg up, however with todays fall the chances of a pull back have really reduced. Today the charts are telling a different story. Nifty had taken 5 days to rise from 10692 to 10987 and now it has retraced entire move in almost same time which is a classic sign of a trend reversal. However there are plenty of support available to Nifty between 10500-10650, also on the short term chart the markets is slightly in oversold territory so there can be a short term consolidation/pull back from current levels or 100-150 points down from here so if you are short/planning to short then please keep that in mind. On the other hand if we have one more bad day for Nifty then it will seal the fate conclusively in favour of bears probably.
Sine Oct'18 Nifty has max fallen 6 days in a row (during election result where it opened gap down and recovered fully by the time trading progressed). Now today was the 5th day of fall (lower low) in Nifty. So another fall tomorrow will make the current fall as the biggest fall of last 3 months ( time wise) and this is something which should not be taken lightly. Another thing which goes in favour of bears is that last 2 days fall has been in a straight line and seems impulsive ( there are no overlapping waves to be seen).
Technically speaking, we have been mentioning that Nifty making 7 leg diametric which is in its last leg (G). and we were expecting G to touch 11k+ levels. However now that we have a breach of 10700 levels ( which was the starting point of G) there is a high probability that G is over (as a failure) and a new trend down has started downwards. Nifty might still recover from here ( If G leg is moving as per irregular correction or if the fall from 10987 is just an 'X' wave). Traders should keep this in mind while planning their trading strategies.
Trading recommendations: Even though we were moderately bullish on markets we had exited our longs on Friday itself @ 10835 levels as the up move was not progressing as per the expected lines. Now going forward the trading strategy has to be prepared keeping these factors in minds i.e. a) Slightly oversold markets on short term charts b) Possibility of G leg getting finished and opening of a new leg down & c) Fall from 10987 as a connecting 'X' wave (which means another corrective will open soon). Don't recommend buying for now selling on rise with proper SL could be adopted ( with budget just round the corner volatility will be very high so trade light).
If you wish to subscribe to our live whatsapp Nifty trading updates/trading recommendation during trading hours then you may subscribe using below link:
http://niftywaveindia.blogspot.com/2019/01/join-us-on-whatsapp-how-to-subscribe.html
Thanks for reading and happy trading!
Market update: It was another bad for Nifty. It managed to open in a slightly positive territory but soon selling emerged and it kept getting intensified as the trading progressed and the pressure was visible till the very end. There was just one final small push from the previous low of 10630 which supported Nifty during the closing hours. Still markets closed with a substantial 120 point loss at 10661 levels.
Overall it was another day where Nifty fell with momentum, actually the momentum was even stronger today than it was there on Friday. Nifty had a crucial support at 10692 which was breached with ease in the morning session itself. Bulls needed to defend it to rekindle any hope of an immediate revival but they failed miserably.
We had been saying that there was still a chance of markets pushing for one more leg up, however with todays fall the chances of a pull back have really reduced. Today the charts are telling a different story. Nifty had taken 5 days to rise from 10692 to 10987 and now it has retraced entire move in almost same time which is a classic sign of a trend reversal. However there are plenty of support available to Nifty between 10500-10650, also on the short term chart the markets is slightly in oversold territory so there can be a short term consolidation/pull back from current levels or 100-150 points down from here so if you are short/planning to short then please keep that in mind. On the other hand if we have one more bad day for Nifty then it will seal the fate conclusively in favour of bears probably.
Sine Oct'18 Nifty has max fallen 6 days in a row (during election result where it opened gap down and recovered fully by the time trading progressed). Now today was the 5th day of fall (lower low) in Nifty. So another fall tomorrow will make the current fall as the biggest fall of last 3 months ( time wise) and this is something which should not be taken lightly. Another thing which goes in favour of bears is that last 2 days fall has been in a straight line and seems impulsive ( there are no overlapping waves to be seen).
Technically speaking, we have been mentioning that Nifty making 7 leg diametric which is in its last leg (G). and we were expecting G to touch 11k+ levels. However now that we have a breach of 10700 levels ( which was the starting point of G) there is a high probability that G is over (as a failure) and a new trend down has started downwards. Nifty might still recover from here ( If G leg is moving as per irregular correction or if the fall from 10987 is just an 'X' wave). Traders should keep this in mind while planning their trading strategies.
Trading recommendations: Even though we were moderately bullish on markets we had exited our longs on Friday itself @ 10835 levels as the up move was not progressing as per the expected lines. Now going forward the trading strategy has to be prepared keeping these factors in minds i.e. a) Slightly oversold markets on short term charts b) Possibility of G leg getting finished and opening of a new leg down & c) Fall from 10987 as a connecting 'X' wave (which means another corrective will open soon). Don't recommend buying for now selling on rise with proper SL could be adopted ( with budget just round the corner volatility will be very high so trade light).
If you wish to subscribe to our live whatsapp Nifty trading updates/trading recommendation during trading hours then you may subscribe using below link:
http://niftywaveindia.blogspot.com/2019/01/join-us-on-whatsapp-how-to-subscribe.html
Thanks for reading and happy trading!
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