Thursday, January 24, 2019

Nifty View: Update for 25th Jan 2019

Near Term Trend:  (sideways with a positive bias)

Market update: Nifty opened flat and traded in a narrow range of 10840-10800 through out the day. It finally gave a sharp pull back towards the end and closed up 20 points at 10850 levels.

Nifty though did make a new low, it failed to give any follow up selling below yesterdays low. We mentioned in our previous post that yesterdays fall was looking like a corrective move only and especially the last hour fall looked like an "after thought" and that it seemed to lacking any intent or purpose.. We had also mentioned that there are significant divergences to be seen and there is not much room for Nifty to go down.

More or less that's what happened today, whole day Nifty threatened to break below 10800 but it failed to do so as it had already run out of ammunition on previous day. Infact the last hour pull back today looked like a breakout on the upside.

Today markets failed to give any follow up selling below yesterdays low so the down move sort of fizzled out.However if we can see follow up buying above 10870 levels tomorrow then may be we can conclude that correction is over for time being.

Technically speaking, the entire move of last 4-5 days ( from 10850 to 10985 and then fall to 10800 levels) is looking like a irregular correction. If its true then expect a sharp up move from here on.

So overall no change in our view, inspite of 100+ point fall yesterday and todays consolidation, we still feel Nifty can see higher levels from here in short term. If our assumptions are correct then there is a high probability that consolidation and range bound movement we have been witnessing since last few days is now over and a clear trend may emerge soon.

Trading Recommendations: Markets continue to remain deceptive and is punishing traders who are trading on both sides. I don't suggest going short at this stage however if you are already short then you may keep a strict SL of 10910 levels. Long positions can be continued with a SL of 10750 (same as yesterday). Don't overtrade/leverage and manage your risks all the time. Next 2-3 days ( as we approach expiry) could be decider.
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