Near Term Trend: ↓ (Down)
Market update: Nifty opened at par ( even though SGX was indicating a positive open) and kept drifting in a narrow range today and finally closed at 10825 levels (down 30 points). It was a pretty listless trading session ( yes you may call it boring) and Nifty made an "inside bar" meaning high and low of yesterday were not breached.
Even though todays session was boring, it assumes lot of significance. I had mentioned in my yesterdays post that " the sharp pull back in last hour has potential to change the trend for Nifty for short term" Bull needed to trade strong above 10870 levels today to bring some strength in markets however they failed once again. Even though Market didn't fall, the inability of bulls to take market higher above the opening prices ( since last 4 days) is weighing heavily on the markets and it assumes a lot of significance in the near term.
There were also a probability if the sharp pull back witnessed yesterday was indeed a 'bear trap' but now the chances of same are almost zero.
Bank Nifty is consistently giving divergence with Nifty, looking at bank nifty chart ( even though I don't track it) I can see its looking much weaker and today while Nifty fell 0.3% Bank Nifty fell 0.7% generally its not very often that one see divergence between bank Nifty and Nifty and sometimes when its there ( not saying always)it might be a sign for something bigger which is cooking in markets.
Another point worth noticing is the negative breadth of the market. Since last few days the declining stocks are outnumbering the advancing stocks ( even though Nifty was rising) which again raises the concern if the distribution is going on in the markets (and to me its nothing but distribution only).
Still no change in my Bearish view, doesn't matter how much pull back Nifty gives and for how long it consolidates till the time I see the actual strength in the prices I wont change my stance. It took Nifty 3 days to reach 10870 levels ( from lows of 10630) now to start a new leg downward, Nifty must break 10630 in next 2 days ( sound difficult? lets see).
Again I reiterate, even though the volatility was totally missing today ( sharp contrast to yesterday) it can increase anytime now so please be very careful while trading and keep the qty in check always. if you feel you have made a wrong trade then don't hesitate to cut your loss and exit. If market catches you on the wrong foot, it will wipe your 100% capital in no time.
Trading recommendation: No change in views still. We are carrying our shorts initiated at 10840 levels ( exited our previous shorts around 10700 levels). Many traders are adding long/shorts and getting chopped and suffering losses on both sides (which happens during sideways trading). For now one must avoid compulsive trading and trade only if you are reasonably sure. Don't recommend going long at this stage so if you are holding longs then either exit or keep a tight stop loss.
Good Day and Happy Trading to you!
Market update: Nifty opened at par ( even though SGX was indicating a positive open) and kept drifting in a narrow range today and finally closed at 10825 levels (down 30 points). It was a pretty listless trading session ( yes you may call it boring) and Nifty made an "inside bar" meaning high and low of yesterday were not breached.
Even though todays session was boring, it assumes lot of significance. I had mentioned in my yesterdays post that " the sharp pull back in last hour has potential to change the trend for Nifty for short term" Bull needed to trade strong above 10870 levels today to bring some strength in markets however they failed once again. Even though Market didn't fall, the inability of bulls to take market higher above the opening prices ( since last 4 days) is weighing heavily on the markets and it assumes a lot of significance in the near term.
There were also a probability if the sharp pull back witnessed yesterday was indeed a 'bear trap' but now the chances of same are almost zero.
Bank Nifty is consistently giving divergence with Nifty, looking at bank nifty chart ( even though I don't track it) I can see its looking much weaker and today while Nifty fell 0.3% Bank Nifty fell 0.7% generally its not very often that one see divergence between bank Nifty and Nifty and sometimes when its there ( not saying always)it might be a sign for something bigger which is cooking in markets.
Another point worth noticing is the negative breadth of the market. Since last few days the declining stocks are outnumbering the advancing stocks ( even though Nifty was rising) which again raises the concern if the distribution is going on in the markets (and to me its nothing but distribution only).
Still no change in my Bearish view, doesn't matter how much pull back Nifty gives and for how long it consolidates till the time I see the actual strength in the prices I wont change my stance. It took Nifty 3 days to reach 10870 levels ( from lows of 10630) now to start a new leg downward, Nifty must break 10630 in next 2 days ( sound difficult? lets see).
Again I reiterate, even though the volatility was totally missing today ( sharp contrast to yesterday) it can increase anytime now so please be very careful while trading and keep the qty in check always. if you feel you have made a wrong trade then don't hesitate to cut your loss and exit. If market catches you on the wrong foot, it will wipe your 100% capital in no time.
Trading recommendation: No change in views still. We are carrying our shorts initiated at 10840 levels ( exited our previous shorts around 10700 levels). Many traders are adding long/shorts and getting chopped and suffering losses on both sides (which happens during sideways trading). For now one must avoid compulsive trading and trade only if you are reasonably sure. Don't recommend going long at this stage so if you are holding longs then either exit or keep a tight stop loss.
Good Day and Happy Trading to you!
From your technical learning post can we say that nifty is making contracting triangle on daily chart, which may result into breakout with 2-3 days. I have tried to post the chart but not able to do so. i have send it to you through whatsapp.
ReplyDeleteYes you are almost right , as per my analysis nifty is makin diametric which has 2 parts . expansion first and Contraction later. So right now we r seeing contraction which is identical to a contracting triangle posted in my technical lesson chart (even the shape is totally same as the sample image put over there).
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