Near Term Trend:↔(Neutral/Upswing maturing?)
Market update: Nifty opened slightly positive and kept trading in a narrow band between 11620-650 before shooting up to 11685 levels just before close. It closed at 11665 ( up 65 points).
Yesterday we had mentioned that any corrective pull back in strong move usually lasts for 2-3 trading session and main trend resumes after that. Now we are not saying that main trend has resumed again, for that we needed a close above 11710-11720 levels and Nifty is still short of that hence for now we keep the near term trend as 'neutral only'. Market has given a good sharp rally but a little more was expected so it is entirely possible that market again turn down and test 11550 levels in next 1-2 trading sessions and if that happens then it will be a lower high lower top scenario and which can invite further selling. On weekly charts, Nifty has posted a 'spinning top' pattern which again is a sign of caution.
Overall it seems ( for now) that rally from lows of 10585 has completed a 5-wave up move. Wave 5 of this upmove began from 11320 and finished at 11750 now as per rules of Neo-wave , for any trend to reverse, the last wave should be retraced fully in faster time. Now wave 5 took 7 days to reach 11760 levels (from lows of 11320) and we have already spent 2 days correcting this move. If this is actually a counter move then Nifty should break below 11320 in next 5 trading session ( i.e. by coming Friday). However if Nifty fails to do that then probably this entire up move has more legs to go.
Last couple of days fall ( from 11760 to 11560 levels) has measured approx 200 points and today market has retraced around 61.8% of this fall (which comes around 11685). That's another reason we have kept trend as 'neutral' only. We need to see strength above 11700 on Monday else its possible that todays upmove was just a pullback ( of another pullback) in which case 11550 levels can be tested again pretty soon. However if 11720 is conquered and Nifty start trading above it then probably higher levels can be seen again.
Happy Trading!!
Market update: Nifty opened slightly positive and kept trading in a narrow band between 11620-650 before shooting up to 11685 levels just before close. It closed at 11665 ( up 65 points).
Yesterday we had mentioned that any corrective pull back in strong move usually lasts for 2-3 trading session and main trend resumes after that. Now we are not saying that main trend has resumed again, for that we needed a close above 11710-11720 levels and Nifty is still short of that hence for now we keep the near term trend as 'neutral only'. Market has given a good sharp rally but a little more was expected so it is entirely possible that market again turn down and test 11550 levels in next 1-2 trading sessions and if that happens then it will be a lower high lower top scenario and which can invite further selling. On weekly charts, Nifty has posted a 'spinning top' pattern which again is a sign of caution.
Overall it seems ( for now) that rally from lows of 10585 has completed a 5-wave up move. Wave 5 of this upmove began from 11320 and finished at 11750 now as per rules of Neo-wave , for any trend to reverse, the last wave should be retraced fully in faster time. Now wave 5 took 7 days to reach 11760 levels (from lows of 11320) and we have already spent 2 days correcting this move. If this is actually a counter move then Nifty should break below 11320 in next 5 trading session ( i.e. by coming Friday). However if Nifty fails to do that then probably this entire up move has more legs to go.
Last couple of days fall ( from 11760 to 11560 levels) has measured approx 200 points and today market has retraced around 61.8% of this fall (which comes around 11685). That's another reason we have kept trend as 'neutral' only. We need to see strength above 11700 on Monday else its possible that todays upmove was just a pullback ( of another pullback) in which case 11550 levels can be tested again pretty soon. However if 11720 is conquered and Nifty start trading above it then probably higher levels can be seen again.
Happy Trading!!
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