Nifty Outlook and Trend for 11th Apr 2019

Short/Near Term Trend: ↓(Down)
Medium Term Trend: ↑(Up)

Market update: Nifty opened flattish inspite of an overnight fall in US stocks but failed to add points above opening price and once again slipped to sub 11600 levels. It closed down 80 points at 11584.

Yesterday we had mentioned that rally for now looks back on track and as long 11600 is held there are chances of another spike up. However nifty again slipped back below 11600 proving us wrong and changing near term trend to 'down' once again. Overall market trend has once again turned neutral ( i.e, both near and medium term trends are in contradiction to each other).

There is just a small possibility that last 5 days fall from 11760 to 11574 has completed a contracting triangle correction. If its the case we should see a sharp spike above 11670-11700 once again and if that sustains Nifty can attempt another move up towards new high. However if weakness persists than Nifty can see even lower levels but it will take couple of very strong bearish session to change the medium term to 'down'.

Overall we have been saying that there is a likelihood of market making a intermediate/short term top at 11760 but the problem is its been 5 days already and Nifty has not given any meaningful down move ( and the last few days fall is looking like a corrective move for now) which raises the question if another up leg is pending for this rally. The move from 11320 to 11760 had taken 7 days so we still have 2 more days to go and if its actually a trend reversal then Nifty should beak below 11320 in next 2 days (coming Friday). But this level is more than 250 points away hence we say we need big downside movement or a strong bearish move in next 2 days.

In nutshell, If Nifty keep slipping then keep an eye on 11320-11350 levels, any meaningful fall can only be expected once this level is taken out on the other hand if Nifty again trades above 11670 levels followed with strength above 11700 then a strong possibility of a fresh 52 week high on Nifty is there.

Market has moved a lot in last 2 months so there is always a risk for a big correction/down or a trend reversal which can come suddenly and without warning hence all longs needs to be covered with a proper SL

Happy Trading!.