Thursday, April 11, 2019

Nifty Outlook and Trend for 12th Apr 2019

Short/Near Term Trend: (Down)
Medium Term Trend: (Up)

Market update: Nifty had a sluggish day today and after moving in tight range of 11550-600 it closed at 11595 up 10 odd points.

Yesterday we had mentioned that Nifty even though is slipping daily, the fall is too slow and looking like a corrective move. We needed a strong bearish move to change the medium term to down however what we had was another flattish sort of a day.

Nifty needs to move below 11320 by Friday to signal start of a fresh down move . Now since it is more than 250 points away with just one trading day remaining chances of Nifty taking another shot at lifetimes high has increased a little ( unless Nifty makes a truncated/failure top below 11760).

On the upside we need a move above 11670-11700 levels to confirm that last 6 days corrective move is over now. Overall the medium market trend remains up/bullish but the near term trend remains down (in contradiction to each other) hence the sideways movement continues in Nifty.

On daily charts the fall from 11760-11550 has generated positive divergence on the charts. Daily RSI is not at all supporting this down move ( but like we saw previously both negative and positive divergence can continue for long. It just a indicator but not a conclusive one).

In nutshell, not much change in view, Nifty continues to trade around at a level where there is strong probability of markets making a near term top but the current price movement suggesting that probably some more upside movement is still remaining and Nifty might move a little more on the upside before top is formed. 11320 on the downside and 11700 on the upside remains critical levels to watch out for now.

Happy Trading!


 

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