Nifty Outlook and Trend for 15th Apr 2019

Short/Near Term Trend: ↑(Up)
Medium Term Trend: ↑(Up)

Market update: Nifty opened slightly up at 11620 levels and remained range bound for most of the day. It again failed to break below 11550 levels and some buying interest was seen in second half which pushed it again over 11650 levels. It closed 45 points up at 11640 levels.

Nifty is continuously trying to break below 11550 levels sine last 6-7 days and is not succeeding. If  this move from 11760 to 11550 was an impulsive move we should have seen a sharp fall by now. Markets inability to break below 11550 levels in spite of repeated attempts is probably suggesting that the up move which started from 11600 levels is not yet done with.

We had mentioned previously that Nifty need to break below 11320 by coming Friday to start a new down trend .Let alone 11320 Nifty didn't even break below 11550 levels. Infact today nifty posted a higher high and higher low on the daily charts ( protected yesterdays low and closed above yesterdays day high). Today on hourly & 30 mins charts Nifty has given a close above the recent downward sloping trendline so probably the falling channel markets have been trading in since last 6-7 days is now broken. For now we have again changed the short term trend to 'UP' Nifty needs to break above 11700-11720  levels to validate this.

On weekly charts Nifty has posted hanging man sort of a pattern which is suggesting some buying interest at lower levels however its important for Nifty to conquer previous week high which is also the all time high ( 11760).

Overall, like we said previously, even though Nifty's entire move from 10600 level is appearing overstretched, theres a likelihood of Nifty spending some more time here attempting another shot at lifetime high. Now this probability has become even stronger after seeing Nifty consolidate in 11550-11700 range in last 6-7 days. Hence for now the bias remains on the upside but keep in mind it may reverse/change without warning and that too with a violent sharp movement hence always keep a tight SL for all longs.

Happy Trading!