Near Term Trend: ↓ (Down)
Market update: Nifty opened with a gap up of around 50 points ( around yesterdays high point) and was in no time 100 points up. It kept trading in a narrow band of 10-15 points around 10880 levels for whole day before giving up 30-40 points in last 30 mins and closing around 80 points up at 10860.
Nifty has been showing strength since last 3 days ever since it hit the low of 10530. it has moved up 350+ points from day low it made on Wednesday. Nifty has shown remarkable strength and its definitely moved up a lot but the question is, is this enough to change the trend or has the new up move has begun now ? in my opinion No not yet. Nifty needed to do a bit more. We needed a strong close above 10900 today, there are indications that move today and yesterday was a just a corrective bounce which is extending and nifty should start its downtrend once this is over.
Frankly I was not expecting Nifty move much above 10800-10850 but entire band of 10800 to 900 (with +/- 20-25 points) is very important and till its crossed, there is no need to change our view and markets move today is still very much under threshold. Offcourse things will change if we see further strength from these levels in which case we will not hesitate to change our perspective. For now I would stick to earlier view only. However todays rise does warrants a change in overall wave counts but it only a minor change and nothing which changes the overall trajectory or path for Nifty near term.
Divergence with Bank Nifty: Another imp thing I must mention is that while Nifty made a strong case for itself today, Bank nifty failed to cross yesterdays high and closed well below it. This divergence between two indices is not giving me enough confidence about sustainability of current upmove and should be a cause of concern for bulls.
Trading Recommendations : Though it appears that Nifty has broken free and started a new up move, however in my opinion its too early to say so. We need to see further strength to conclude that. As per my view, for now shorts can be carried forward and if someone is bullish then he should use these up moves to get out from Nifty. We initiated shorts around 10860 and 10690 and part booking was done around 10545 levels and part is still open. At appropriate moment we will take fresh trading call ( exit from current shorts or enter fresh shorts).
Have a nice weekend!
Market update: Nifty opened with a gap up of around 50 points ( around yesterdays high point) and was in no time 100 points up. It kept trading in a narrow band of 10-15 points around 10880 levels for whole day before giving up 30-40 points in last 30 mins and closing around 80 points up at 10860.
Nifty has been showing strength since last 3 days ever since it hit the low of 10530. it has moved up 350+ points from day low it made on Wednesday. Nifty has shown remarkable strength and its definitely moved up a lot but the question is, is this enough to change the trend or has the new up move has begun now ? in my opinion No not yet. Nifty needed to do a bit more. We needed a strong close above 10900 today, there are indications that move today and yesterday was a just a corrective bounce which is extending and nifty should start its downtrend once this is over.
Frankly I was not expecting Nifty move much above 10800-10850 but entire band of 10800 to 900 (with +/- 20-25 points) is very important and till its crossed, there is no need to change our view and markets move today is still very much under threshold. Offcourse things will change if we see further strength from these levels in which case we will not hesitate to change our perspective. For now I would stick to earlier view only. However todays rise does warrants a change in overall wave counts but it only a minor change and nothing which changes the overall trajectory or path for Nifty near term.
Divergence with Bank Nifty: Another imp thing I must mention is that while Nifty made a strong case for itself today, Bank nifty failed to cross yesterdays high and closed well below it. This divergence between two indices is not giving me enough confidence about sustainability of current upmove and should be a cause of concern for bulls.
Trading Recommendations : Though it appears that Nifty has broken free and started a new up move, however in my opinion its too early to say so. We need to see further strength to conclude that. As per my view, for now shorts can be carried forward and if someone is bullish then he should use these up moves to get out from Nifty. We initiated shorts around 10860 and 10690 and part booking was done around 10545 levels and part is still open. At appropriate moment we will take fresh trading call ( exit from current shorts or enter fresh shorts).
Have a nice weekend!
Good morning
ReplyDeleteGreat pridiction Rahul sir
only one question sir can I take short position in nifty around 10900 near if it reach on monday ?
sir, depends how mkt behaves after opening at 10900.short recommended only of weakness is visible.
Delete