Market Update: Flattish close today. Markets traded between high and low of yesterdays and didn't make any move at all and closed almost flat. You may call it consolidation you mall call it resilience or my you call it markets inability to climb new high it doesn't matter. Nifty just didn't give any clue about its intentions today but having said this I feel the time is running out for Nifty to climb to new highs. Its been almost 2-3 weeks and we are still stuck at 10700-800 levels. Next 2-3 days are going to be extremely critical and Nifty's move will probably give us indication about which way it wants to go.
The previous move from 10965 to 10350 (6day) and then shap rally from 10350 to 10850(3-4 days and counting) is just a volatile move by markets to get rid of weak hands. Right now Nifty looks strong but the downside gates have not been closed yet. There is a strong probability of testing 10350 again but there is no confirmation right now. On the upside we need Nifty to cross above 10965 in next 2 days. till now Nifty has retraced about 80% of fall (from 10965 to 103450) in about 65% of time so the move up does look faster. If nifty can cross 10965 levels then we are probably heading back to 11100-11200 or higher levels
Broad picture- If you look at overall picture then the entire fall from 11750 to 10K levels took about 40 days. From the lows of 10K so far nifty has consumed about 33 days and retraced about 55% of total fall ( in about 80% time) which is very very slow. So overall we remain in correction mode. There was a good chance about 2 weeks back (when Nifty broke above 10600-10750) of markets scaling back to 11500 levels ( that's when we had gone long too) however with each passing day the chances look dim now. New moves always come faster ( called impulse) slow moves are corrective moves and they last till they last and after they are over the main trend resumes. So don't think that current move from 10K levels is a bullish move (unless we cross 11750 in next 7 days which is next to impossible).So if 10965 gets crossed in next 2 days then we can expect this corrective move to last a little bit longer and nifty might see higher levels of 11100 or 11200 like I mentioned above else the lower levels might be retested pretty soon.
I personally feel markets are more or less done with the 'cleaning act' and has removed weak hands already ( both long and short side) surely it can spend few more days in this range and keep us guessing but it should make a move pretty soon now.
Near Term Trend: ↔️ (Sideways)
Trading recommendation: No position, same as yesterday. Don't recommend going long/short yet.
The previous move from 10965 to 10350 (6day) and then shap rally from 10350 to 10850(3-4 days and counting) is just a volatile move by markets to get rid of weak hands. Right now Nifty looks strong but the downside gates have not been closed yet. There is a strong probability of testing 10350 again but there is no confirmation right now. On the upside we need Nifty to cross above 10965 in next 2 days. till now Nifty has retraced about 80% of fall (from 10965 to 103450) in about 65% of time so the move up does look faster. If nifty can cross 10965 levels then we are probably heading back to 11100-11200 or higher levels
Broad picture- If you look at overall picture then the entire fall from 11750 to 10K levels took about 40 days. From the lows of 10K so far nifty has consumed about 33 days and retraced about 55% of total fall ( in about 80% time) which is very very slow. So overall we remain in correction mode. There was a good chance about 2 weeks back (when Nifty broke above 10600-10750) of markets scaling back to 11500 levels ( that's when we had gone long too) however with each passing day the chances look dim now. New moves always come faster ( called impulse) slow moves are corrective moves and they last till they last and after they are over the main trend resumes. So don't think that current move from 10K levels is a bullish move (unless we cross 11750 in next 7 days which is next to impossible).So if 10965 gets crossed in next 2 days then we can expect this corrective move to last a little bit longer and nifty might see higher levels of 11100 or 11200 like I mentioned above else the lower levels might be retested pretty soon.
I personally feel markets are more or less done with the 'cleaning act' and has removed weak hands already ( both long and short side) surely it can spend few more days in this range and keep us guessing but it should make a move pretty soon now.
Near Term Trend: ↔️ (Sideways)
Trading recommendation: No position, same as yesterday. Don't recommend going long/short yet.
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