Near Term Trend: ↔️ (Sideways with a positive Bias)
Market Update: Nifty opened with a gap up of around 50 points and throughout the day maintained its upward trajectory before closing around 80 points up at 10888. Dow had crashed 500+ points on Friday and traders were expecting a weak opening however market obliged by doing exact opposite. Some positive sentiments are building in Nifty on back of lower inflation lower crude and New RBI Governor.
Nifty today crossed 10850 in style by a gap up and has given a secondary confirmation that its probably ready for its next leg upside. But like I mentioned in previous post too we need Nifty to cross 10950 levels (that too in faster time) to get complete confirmation. Till then the downside gates will remain open. Point to note is that VIX is now sitting at 14+ levels, previously when Nifty was at 10900 levels VIX was at 20+ levels so markets are way more calmer now ( especially with election results out of its way now).
To summarize, the entire up-move from 10K levels does seem like a corrective move only as its really very slow and has too many overlapping moves but that doesn't mean you can go and short Nifty ( corrective moves can last for a long time) . Let me take this moment to explain one important characteristic of the market. This entire year all Bull/Bear moves have consumed exactly 34-40 days ( alternatively). this has worked out like a charm till now ( pls see the below chart). Now the question is will this work again? Today was the 34th day for Nifty, so can we expect another top in next 1-5 days?
See all major bull/bear phases have lasted exactly 34-40 days. So its time to be cautious don't get overexcited by seeing Nifty outperforming global markets.
Trading recommendation: No position still. If Nifty crosses 10950 levels then we might look to go long at suitable entry points else create short position at appropriate time. Till then sit tightly.
Market Update: Nifty opened with a gap up of around 50 points and throughout the day maintained its upward trajectory before closing around 80 points up at 10888. Dow had crashed 500+ points on Friday and traders were expecting a weak opening however market obliged by doing exact opposite. Some positive sentiments are building in Nifty on back of lower inflation lower crude and New RBI Governor.
Nifty today crossed 10850 in style by a gap up and has given a secondary confirmation that its probably ready for its next leg upside. But like I mentioned in previous post too we need Nifty to cross 10950 levels (that too in faster time) to get complete confirmation. Till then the downside gates will remain open. Point to note is that VIX is now sitting at 14+ levels, previously when Nifty was at 10900 levels VIX was at 20+ levels so markets are way more calmer now ( especially with election results out of its way now).
To summarize, the entire up-move from 10K levels does seem like a corrective move only as its really very slow and has too many overlapping moves but that doesn't mean you can go and short Nifty ( corrective moves can last for a long time) . Let me take this moment to explain one important characteristic of the market. This entire year all Bull/Bear moves have consumed exactly 34-40 days ( alternatively). this has worked out like a charm till now ( pls see the below chart). Now the question is will this work again? Today was the 34th day for Nifty, so can we expect another top in next 1-5 days?
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| Nifty Jan-Dec2018 |
See all major bull/bear phases have lasted exactly 34-40 days. So its time to be cautious don't get overexcited by seeing Nifty outperforming global markets.
Trading recommendation: No position still. If Nifty crosses 10950 levels then we might look to go long at suitable entry points else create short position at appropriate time. Till then sit tightly.
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