Near Term Trend: ↔️ (Sideways/with a strong negative bias)
Market Update: Nifty opened slightly positive around 10950 shrugging one more overnight carnage in US stock but today was different. Nifty couldn't display the strong character its been putting up since last few days and crashed 200 points to close around 10750 levels. I did mention in my post yesterday that we should not read too much in Nifty outperformance and sooner or later both indices ( US and India) will line up.
I have been expecting this move since last 2-3 days and have been saying that markets seems to have matured and there is a strong likelihood of down move from these levels. I marked the move from 10k as diametric pattern which is in its last leg (G). G might have completed both time wise and pricewise yesterday. We went short yesterday expecting a move like today but it didn't materialize so we exited however we entered shorts today again around 10860 levels ( you may want to refer to 'Nifty real time trades' page for details). Idea was to enter below yesterdays low ( 10890) level however the fall was steep so we got a lower entry point around 10860 only. But when you are doing positional trading 10-20 points shouldn't matter to you.
Having said all this can we say that near term trend for Nifty has now changed to down? Answer is No, not yet. That's the reason I am still showing the 'Near term trend' as sideways. There is a strong probability of Nifty changing the trend to 'down' from here but so far it hasn't changed. Not even after 200 point fall today. See in last 8 days Nifty has had just one bad day and one bad day cannot dictate the course of market for short term. Nifty can be in super bullish trend and yet it can fall 200 points and recover. Similarly one day of 200+ move in bearish trend doesn't mean trend has changed now.
So our overall stand remain same for now. We have been saying that there is a likelihood of a reversal from these levels and Nifty today has taken one step towards confirming that. It has very good support at 10700-750 zone. Continuous fall below this level with momentum will give us the confirmation we are waiting for.
Some are asking why we exited shorts yesterday even though the SL was not triggered? Please note that Nifty trend had not yet turned negative yesterday, so holding on to shorts required a strong negative momentum which we didn't have so we exited. Today we have it so we are carrying. Doesn't matter if we lose 70-80 points in the process. In the long run this rule will help you cut your losses.
Food for thought- If my chart reading and wave counts are correct then we are looking at a very steep fall and when I say steep I mean every likelihood of Nifty breaking 10340 in next 3-4 days ( not exaggerating).
Trading recommendation: Entered shorts around 10860 levels today and carrying. Will short more once I get secondary confirmation till then just hold on to your existing shorts. If some one is long then pls exit once Nifty start trading below 10700 consistently.
Have a nice weekend! Enjoy and take care.
Market Update: Nifty opened slightly positive around 10950 shrugging one more overnight carnage in US stock but today was different. Nifty couldn't display the strong character its been putting up since last few days and crashed 200 points to close around 10750 levels. I did mention in my post yesterday that we should not read too much in Nifty outperformance and sooner or later both indices ( US and India) will line up.
I have been expecting this move since last 2-3 days and have been saying that markets seems to have matured and there is a strong likelihood of down move from these levels. I marked the move from 10k as diametric pattern which is in its last leg (G). G might have completed both time wise and pricewise yesterday. We went short yesterday expecting a move like today but it didn't materialize so we exited however we entered shorts today again around 10860 levels ( you may want to refer to 'Nifty real time trades' page for details). Idea was to enter below yesterdays low ( 10890) level however the fall was steep so we got a lower entry point around 10860 only. But when you are doing positional trading 10-20 points shouldn't matter to you.
Having said all this can we say that near term trend for Nifty has now changed to down? Answer is No, not yet. That's the reason I am still showing the 'Near term trend' as sideways. There is a strong probability of Nifty changing the trend to 'down' from here but so far it hasn't changed. Not even after 200 point fall today. See in last 8 days Nifty has had just one bad day and one bad day cannot dictate the course of market for short term. Nifty can be in super bullish trend and yet it can fall 200 points and recover. Similarly one day of 200+ move in bearish trend doesn't mean trend has changed now.
So our overall stand remain same for now. We have been saying that there is a likelihood of a reversal from these levels and Nifty today has taken one step towards confirming that. It has very good support at 10700-750 zone. Continuous fall below this level with momentum will give us the confirmation we are waiting for.
Some are asking why we exited shorts yesterday even though the SL was not triggered? Please note that Nifty trend had not yet turned negative yesterday, so holding on to shorts required a strong negative momentum which we didn't have so we exited. Today we have it so we are carrying. Doesn't matter if we lose 70-80 points in the process. In the long run this rule will help you cut your losses.
Food for thought- If my chart reading and wave counts are correct then we are looking at a very steep fall and when I say steep I mean every likelihood of Nifty breaking 10340 in next 3-4 days ( not exaggerating).
Trading recommendation: Entered shorts around 10860 levels today and carrying. Will short more once I get secondary confirmation till then just hold on to your existing shorts. If some one is long then pls exit once Nifty start trading below 10700 consistently.
Have a nice weekend! Enjoy and take care.
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