Nifty View: Update for 12th Feb 2019

Near Term Trend: ↑ (UP)

Market update: Nifty again opened down at 10900 levels and even touched a low of 10860 in the first hour itself. However lack of follow up selling and lackluster trading saw index closing around 10890 levels ( down50 points).

Even though Nifty witnessed another weak session, the momentum on downside was missing today. Nifty made day low within first hour of trading and managed to protect that low throughout the day. We had mentioned in our last post that even though Nifty has weakened considerably, its still in a uptrend and its too early to conclude that a new down trend has started. Same view stands even today as well. Nifty has a strong support at 10800-10850 level and unless same is taken out by force and momentum, it wont be wise to assume that Nifty is done with the uptrend.

Looking only at 'prices' Nifty definitely is under pressure and even broke 10900 levels today. Resistance of 10900-10985 was broken by market after a long consolidation and prices have slipped again in the same range which definitely goes against bulls. However prices movement is just one of the factor and there are other factors too which are suggesting that Nifty can still move up from here. there are many traders who just trade looking at prices (i.e. if Nifty is 11100 go short & if nifty 10500 buy) which is not the right way to trade as there are plenty of things which changes over the time at same price band ( so same price which is  good shorting opportunity, becomes a good buying opportunity later).

Daily oscillators and technical indicators remains in the ' buy mode' and positive divergence with Bank Nifty continues. VIX remains low at 15 so overall its still a mixed bag out there. We have not seen conclusive evidence yet to confirm if a downtrend has started so we are keeping the near term trend as 'up' for now. However since today was second consecutive day where Nifty closed below its previous day low, one should continue to be watchful,observant and cautious for some more time. As per our analysis time for consolidation is already over and we are about to see a trending move pretty soon.

We keep guiding and advising our subscribers through regular intraday whatsapp updates as to what needs to be done during trading hours. If you wish to subscribe to our live whatsapp Nifty calls/trading recommendation then you may subscribe using below link:

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You may follow us on Twitter: Nifty Trend @Niftytarget

Happy Trading!!

Nifty View: Update for 11th Feb 2019

Near Term Trend: ↑ (UP)

Market update: Nifty opened weak today around 11000 levels and kept trading weak throughout the day and ended the day at 10943 (adjusted close while actual closing was around 10930 which was the lowest point of day).

Todays move was swift and had a lot of momentum but like we always say, one day fall in a bull trend ( or one day rise in a bearish trend) usually don't mean much and one shouldn't take them too seriously. Having said this todays fall has made a big dent in the overall structure of the last 7 day uptrend. When market breaks a range which was active for a long time then prices should trade above it ( previous resistance should become a support) but if prices fall back into the range once again then it raises a question if the breakout was a 'false breakout'. It will be interesting to see how Nifty react during  next 2-3 trading sessions. Continuous weakness from here below todays low and then breaking below 10800-10830 levels would mean the  upmove has ended and market has started a new leg on the downside.

On daily charts it appears as if Nifty has made an "Evening Star" pattern. Evening star pattern is a topping pattern comprises of three candlestick( its a 3 days pattern).  Day-1: sees a  strong Bullish move ( Wednesday we saw 132 point up move) Day-2: Doji type candle where market opens strongly but give up all its gain before closing ( yesterday market opened strongly but gave up all its gain before closing & closed flat) & Day 3: is a strong bearish candle which breaks the low of Day 1 candle and that's precisely what happened today (Nifty not only broke below yesterdays low, it even broke and closed below Wednesdays low).We had mentioned in our post yesterday that once market start closing previous days low consistently that's time one should be cautious. and today market not only closed below yesterdays low, it even broke below prior day close as well.

While there are plenty of indicators pointing towards a weak market there are many indicators which are suggesting that up move is still intact. short term RSI is giving a positive divergence and key technical indicators and oscillators on daily chart are still in 'buy' mode. Bank Nifty which had been giving a negative divergence till date has given a positive divergence today ( & it fell just 0.34% while Nifty had fallen 1.14%). So there is a possibility that move today was just a 'calibration' of indices or indices catching up with each other. Also inspite of such a massive fall the VIX didn't rise at all and still lying around 15 which is really surprising ( goes in favour of bulls). Even the OI in Nifty futures didn't see any increase ( on the contrary saw a fall which suggest long unwinding). PCR dipped slightly but its still in favour of bulls.

In nutshell, its a mixed bag out there. Though for now the uptrend remains intact, it has weakened considerably and is hanging by a thin thread. The risk on downside have increased manifolds since yesterday. Nifty need to make a strong recovery in next 1-2 trading session to cancel out the negative impact of todays fall. On the other hand continuous weakness below todays low and then breaking below 10800 level would mean the 'break out' we witnessed during last 2 days was a false breakout and Nifty has opened another leg down.

We keep guiding and advising our subscribers through regular intraday whatsapp updates as to what needs to be done during trading hours. If you wish to subscribe to our live whatsapp Nifty calls/trading recommendation then you may subscribe using below link:

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You may follow us on Twitter: Nifty Trend @Niftytarget

Happy Trading!!
 

Nifty Trade Update -1Feb-7th Feb 2019

Below are some of the trades we did in 1st week of Feb ( these are not 100% of our trades in the period)


01/02/2019, 09:03 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: Good morning, wait for next trade.

01/02/2019, 09:08 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: This time market is Carrying lots of force and momentum so chances of breakout have increased a lot.

01/02/2019, 09:16 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: *nifty 10845 buy one part*

01/02/2019, 09:18 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: *nifty 10865 buy one more part*

01/02/2019, 09:19 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: Trade 1 active @ 10855 (2 parts)

01/02/2019, 10:02 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: *nifty 10885 buy 2 parts*

01/02/2019, 10:02 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: Now we have 2 trades active * trade 1 10855 2 parts* & *trade 2 @10885*
01/02/2019, 13:30 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: We remain bullish on the markets and todays breakout seems to be moving as per our expectations.

01/02/2019, 14:15 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: *nifty 10870 hold all 4 parts*

01/02/2019, 14:16 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: If some one missed buying in the morning he may initiate now

01/02/2019, 15:12 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: Nifty 10900 hold all positional longs. Indications are we are going towards 11k+ now. Still dont leverage. Dont overtrade! (markets can turn and surprise anytime we cannot predict every move mkt is making in advance)
 
04/02/2019, 09:15 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: Good morning. Hold positions

04/02/2019, 10:11 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: Nifty 10850 hold all 4 parts long.

04/02/2019, 11:59 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: Nothing to be done for now, keep Holding all longs.

04/02/2019, 15:31 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: Carry all long for tomorrow

05/02/2019, 08:59 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: Good morning, expect slightly positive open today. Most of asian mkts are closed today/tomorrow due to Chinese new year.

05/02/2019, 12:13 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: Keep holding all longs

05/02/2019, 13:54 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: Nifty 10950 keep holding all 4 parts for now

05/02/2019, 15:27 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: Nothing to be done for now, have a good evening.

06/02/2019, 09:04 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: Good morning, looks there will be another attempt to break above 10985 today. Hold positions. Will advise if we have to do a part exit/book profit.

06/02/2019, 09:26 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: *nifty 11018 exit 2 part long*

06/02/2019, 09:26 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: Confirmation : we have booked profit in 2 parts. Keep holding balance 2

06/02/2019, 15:13 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: Nifty trading around 11060. Nothing to be done for now. Carry balance long position for tomorrow.

07/02/2019, 09:01 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: Good. Morning. Hold balance long (2 part). Will advise if we have to do anything

07/02/2019, 09:31 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: *Nifty 11100 exit 1 more part*

07/02/2019, 09:32 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: Hold just one part

07/02/2019, 09:32 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: Confirmation we have covered 3 parts. Booked profit.

07/02/2019, 11:47 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: *nifty 11115 exit balance part*

07/02/2019, 11:47 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: Book profit

07/02/2019, 11:47 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: *Position Nil*
(total point gained >250)

Note- Apart from these trades we also did few intraday/jobbing trades which is not included here

As you can see we keep guiding and advising our subscribers through regular intraday whatsapp updates as to what needs to be done during trading hours. If you wish to subscribe to our live whatsapp Nifty calls/trading recommendation then you may subscribe using below link:

http://niftywaveindia.blogspot.com/2019/02/join-us-on-whatsapp-how-to-subscribe.html


You may follow us on Twitter: Nifty Trend @Niftytarget

Happy Trading!!

Nifty View: Update for 8th Feb 2019

Near Term Trend: ↑ (UP)

Market update: Nifty again opened in positive territory and went on to touch 11120 levels before cooling off and closing 7 points up 11070 level.

Overall Nifty has been moving in line with our trend and prediction and regular reader of our blog are aware that we have been bullish on Nifty for last few days. Nifty remains strong however being strong doesn't mean that it will continue to rise 100 point everyday. Nifty has risen more than 500 points in last 5-6 days so a pause is very much possible. Even a fall of 100 or so points from here shouldn't be a big deal but the important thing is that near term trajectory of the market remains up for now. Now its possible that market changes its trend tomorrow or day after it ( anything is possible in markets) but so far market has not given any such indications and like we mentioned yesterday once Nifty start trading and closing below previous day low that will be time to carefully analyse market movement.

We had mentioned that Nifty need to break 4-6 days of alternate bull/bear cycle ( Nifty had already moved out of the price wise consolidation range yesterday) and today probably it moved out of time range as well. It was the 7th consecutive day of higher lows and Nifty upward trajectory is clearly visible now and more importantly has broken the trend we had been accustomed to seeing since last 2 months. Advance decline continue to be positive and was at healthy 30:20

Technically nothing much changes , our old wave count stands, we feel G leg is in progress and probably has some more steam left in it which means we can see higher levels from here. I don't want to give any specific target as target do keep changing every day but a 11200-11300 is definitely a possibility (we say possibility so of course markets can change the trend anytime they wish). If you go long then do keep a strict stop loss and then only trade.

We had recommended going long above 10840 and if did you should have made decent profits by now, I am sharing below excerpts of the chat messages/trading updates we shared with our members and subscribers during last 5 days.

Summary of trade recommendations given in last 4-5 days

01/02/2019, 09:03 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: Good morning, wait for next trade.

01/02/2019, 09:08 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: This time market is Carrying lots of force and momentum so chances of breakout have increased a lot.

01/02/2019, 09:16 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: *nifty 10845 buy one part*

01/02/2019, 09:18 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: *nifty 10865 buy one more part*

01/02/2019, 09:19 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: Trade 1 active @ 10855 (2 parts)

01/02/2019, 10:02 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: *nifty 10885 buy 2 parts*

01/02/2019, 10:02 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: Now we have 2 trades active * trade 1 10855 2 parts* & *trade 2 @10885*
01/02/2019, 13:30 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: We remain bullish on the markets and todays breakout seems to be moving as per our expectations.

01/02/2019, 14:15 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: *nifty 10870 hold all 4 parts*

01/02/2019, 14:16 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: If some one missed buying in the morning he may initiate now

01/02/2019, 15:12 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: Nifty 10900 hold all positional longs. Indications are we are going towards 11k+ now. Still dont leverage. Dont overtrade! (markets can turn and surprise anytime we cannot predict every move mkt is making in advance)
 
04/02/2019, 09:15 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: Good morning. Hold positions

04/02/2019, 10:11 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: Nifty 10850 hold all 4 parts long.

04/02/2019, 11:59 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: Nothing to be done for now, keep Holding all longs.

04/02/2019, 15:31 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: Carry all long for tomorrow

05/02/2019, 08:59 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: Good morning, expect slightly positive open today. Most of asian mkts are closed today/tomorrow due to Chinese new year.

05/02/2019, 12:13 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: Keep holding all longs

05/02/2019, 13:54 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: Nifty 10950 keep holding all 4 parts for now

05/02/2019, 15:27 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: Nothing to be done for now, have a good evening.

06/02/2019, 09:04 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: Good morning, looks there will be another attempt to break above 10985 today. Hold positions. Will advise if we have to do a part exit/book profit.

06/02/2019, 09:26 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: *nifty 11018 exit 2 part long*

06/02/2019, 09:26 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: Confirmation : we have booked profit in 2 parts. Keep holding balance 2

06/02/2019, 15:13 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: Nifty trading around 11060. Nothing to be done for now. Carry balance long position for tomorrow.

07/02/2019, 09:01 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: Good. Morning. Hold balance long (2 part). Will advise if we have to do anything

07/02/2019, 09:31 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: *Nifty 11100 exit 1 more part*

07/02/2019, 09:32 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: Hold just one part

07/02/2019, 09:32 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: Confirmation we have covered 3 parts. Booked profit.

07/02/2019, 11:47 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: *nifty 11115 exit balance part*

07/02/2019, 11:47 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: Book profit

07/02/2019, 11:47 - NIFTYWAVEINDIA.BLOGSPOT: *Position Nil*
(total point gained >250)

Note- Apart from these trades we also did few intraday/jobbing trades which is not included here

As you can see we keep guiding and advising our subscribers through regular intraday whatsapp updates as to what needs to be done during trading hours. If you wish to subscribe to our live whatsapp Nifty calls/trading recommendation then you may subscribe using below link:

http://niftywaveindia.blogspot.com/2019/02/join-us-on-whatsapp-how-to-subscribe.html


You may follow us on Twitter: Nifty Trend @Niftytarget

Happy Trading!!

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Trading updates will cover timely entry/exit points & the near term outlook of market with trading strategies (which is not always covered in detail in the blog updates)



Example of updates

09:45 AM Nifty CMP 10840 BUY 2 parts
09:55 AM Nifty CMP 10870 BUY 2 more parts
09:55 AM Confirmation, we have 4 part long active now
12:30 PM Nifty 10900.Hold position, nothing to be done as of now
02:00 PM Nifty CMP 10950 Exit 2 parts/book profit
03:15PM Nifty CMP  10930 Carry balance long for tomorrow

Nifty View: Update for 7th Feb 2019

Near Term Trend: ↑ (UP)

Market update: Nifty opened with a gap up around 10980 levels and after that there was no looking back for Nifty & it closed strongly at 11062  levels up 130 points.

It was a strong day for bulls which is totally in line with our view, prediction and expectations. We have been mentioning since last few days that market is carrying lots of momentum this time around and in spite of wide spread skepticism it is capable of breaking above 10985 levels and seeing higher levels from here ( above 11k+) and that's what precisely happened today. We had changed the trend to 'UP'  on budget day when Nifty was around 10840 levels and we continue to maintain the same status even today.
 
Going forward we feel Nifty is likely to maintain the upward momentum for now but that doesn't mean we can not see a fall from these levels of course we can see a fall of 100-150 point anytime (that's totally normal) but that doesn't change the overall trend. To exhibit weakness Nifty has to start closing below previous days low consistently, till the time it start happening we can assume that the up trend will remain intact.

There were lots of apprehensions around 10980 levels and we had also mentioned that whenever any support/resistance level become so obvious, its usually taken out by a gap up/down opening and that is what we witnessed today (even though gap up was not that strong but Nifty was trading at 11020 levels after 10 mins of opening). Many technical indicators have also been pointing out that market trend has now changed to up ( I mentioned MACD which gave a bullish cross over yesterday) which is encouraging sign for bulls.

This consolidation or range bound movement we were witnessing for last 2 months had run its course and there was a strong probability of a breakout pretty soon. Today we got to see the breakout. Also, today was the 6th day of rise from low of 10583 and markets are currently following 4-6 days of alternate bull/bear cycle (i.e. it rises for 4-6 days and then fall for 4-6 days). However the price range ( which was 10600-10980) has been broken which raises the question if the time cycle ( 4-6 days) will be broken as well. After 6 days of rise Nifty has  nearly put on a healthy 450+ points, so one cannot rule out some days of sideways movement/consolidation around these levels  Its important and possible that Nifty digest these gains first before moving further up from here.

One negative thing we can see is that Bank Nifty is giving negative divergence and is still below its previous high. However there are 2 ways to see it, one is that its a weak sign definitely and that movement we are seeing in Nifty is not comprehensive and second contra view is that Nifty has been able to put on all these gains without any help from Bank Nifty and if Bank Nifty also start moving up/catching up then Nifty can easily move much higher from here. Just a food for thought.

We had recommended going long above 10840 levels and if you did then you are already sitting on a profit of 200+ points ( we and our subscribers surely did, we had entered long and have made a decent profit in last 3 days). If you are still holding longs then you are advised to book partial profit and trail the balance longs with strict stop losses. Journey for Nifty going forward is not going to be easy as Nifty has plenty of resistance all the way from 11100 to 11450 levels.


We keep guiding and advising our subscribers through regular intraday whatsapp updates as to what needs to be done during trading hours. If you wish to subscribe to our live whatsapp Nifty calls/trading recommendation then you may subscribe using below link:

http://niftywaveindia.blogspot.com/2019/01/join-us-on-whatsapp-how-to-subscribe.html  



Follow us on Twitter: Nifty Trend @Niftytarget

Happy Trading!!

Nifty View: Update for 6th Feb 2019

Near Term Trend: ↑ (UP)

Market update: Nifty opened slightly positive and quickly dropped below 10900 levels however it pulled itself from there and even touched 10960 levels but familiar resistance in 10950-10980 range didn't allow Nifty to move any further. It finally closed at 10930 levels up 20 points.

Overall it was a fairly stable kind of day and even though Nifty didn't give any breakout above the resistance zone, it didn't give any break down either though it threatened to fall in the morning session when it dropped below 10900 levels.

Movement today in Nifty remained more or less in line with the trend we had predicted though we would have liked to see a breakout above 10980 levels however we still have time for that (breakout today was good to have and not must to have).

Markets are slowly but surely inching up as there is lot of skepticism at 10900 levels and buyers are not willing to commit fully at current levels. However everything will change once we have a breakout above 10980 levels. Those who follow MACD they may note it has given a bullish crossover today and it has come after a series of false breakouts and whipsaws  so it will be intresting to see if it turns out to be a false breakout once again.

Its often observed that once a resistance or support becomes too obvious its usually taken out by a gap up or gap down opening. Now I am not saying that is what going to happen tomorrow, but it remains a possibility. On the downside if we start trading below 10890 levels consistently then probably we would need a rethink. Since budget is out of way, VIX has fallen drastically from 18-19 levels to around 15 now and lower VIX  along with positive advance decline ratio should encourage bulls further (Advance decline ratio was 30:19 today).

In nutshell, nothing much changed today. Nifty has been showing sign of strengths ever since it touched 10600 levels 5 days back and slowly but surely inching its way up. Having said this 10900-10980 range remains a critical level to watch and most traders are probably waiting for a breakout above this level. Nifty has been moving up since last 4-5 days and it remains to be seen if Nifty can stretch this up-trend beyond 6 days ( which has been the upper limit since last 2 months).
This rangebound market has more or less run its course and we don't expect it to stretch it much beyond current levels so a breakout (or breakdown) is expected soon now.


We keep guiding and advising our subscribers through regular intraday whatsapp updates as to what needs to be done during trading hours. If you wish to subscribe to our live whatsapp Nifty calls/trading recommendation then you may subscribe using below link:

http://niftywaveindia.blogspot.com/2019/01/join-us-on-whatsapp-how-to-subscribe.html