Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Nifty Outlook and Trend for 6th Mar 2019

Near Term Trend: Down

Market update: Nifty again opened weak around 10820 levels but immediately reversed and kept moving in one strong trend for entire day and closed at 10987 levels up 130 points.

Today was a very strong day and easily the best day since Nifty hit 10585 levels. However the only thing is that it has come too late. Today was the 9th day of rise from the low of 10585 and Nifty has managed to retrace only 75% in more than 100% of time ( Sensex is lagging behind even more and is currently sitting at 61.8% retracement level). The fall we had seen from 11118 levels was a slow one and failed to retrace previous rise by 100% in faster time. Now the rally or pullback we are seeing is doing the same thing and infact is even slower. So inspite of a strong upmove today, market is not giving a confidence ( not yet) that it has put the worst behind it.

However it doesn't mean that we can not see further rise from here, todays upmove was pretty strong and carried a lot of momentum so its possible that momentum is spilled over to next few days. Good thing about markets is the strong volume and the broad contribution. In last few days small cap and midcaps have started contributing to Nifty (it may be noted that all these stocks were continuously being hammered since last few months). Most indicators have turned into buy zone and PCR too remains in favour of bulls.

One interesting thing to note is that previous rally from 10583 to 11118 had taken 7 days, the fall witnessed from 11118 to 10585 took 8 days and now this pull back from 10585 levels has taken 9 days. So each move is getting bigger time wise yet remains smaller price wise which is giving contradicting signals.In Nov 2018, Nifty was at 10900 levels now after 4 months its still sitting at same level. This 'nothing' markets cannot continue for long should end sooner or later.

In nutshell, inspite of a strong thrust today, Nifty remains weak for now however strength above todays high followed by a close above 11020 levels tomorrow would most probably mean that markets may test higher level/new high once again.

Happy Trading!!






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