Monday, March 25, 2019

Nifty Outlook and Trend for 26th March 2019

Near Term Trend: UP

Market update: Nifty trend was bearish today, it opened with a gap down at 11360 and moved even lower at 11320 levels. Some late buying pushed it up slightly and it closed at 11350 levels down 100 points.

Nifty was overbought and prices were stretched on the upside hence a correction was due (overdue rather). We had a huge fall in US stocks Friday evening and same was followed by most Asian markets today including Nifty. We had mentioned in our previous post that suddenly most global indices are aligned and there is a strong probability that global markets may move in tandem from here onwards ( follow Dow). In other words the under-performance or the over-performance we have been seeing from Nifty may not continue for long now.

Coming back to our markets, now that we have seen the much awaited correction is it safe to assume that nifty is ready to resume its uptrend? Not really. Today Nifty opened with a gap down and the gap was sustained through out the day and so far the entire fall of last 2 days ( from 11565 levels) is carrying good momentum and force. Now if this gap is not filled in next couple of trading sessions then Nifty might slip slightly more to 11200-250 levels as a result of bearish implications of this gap down. Overall from a near/medium term perspective the trend still remains up and unless Nifty break below 11200 levels with force, it will remain so.

Near term trend of Nifty remains up but we had mentioned in previous post that technical are suggesting that probably the near term top is done at 11565 levels ( due to various time/price cycles we have been mentioning) and todays gap down has done little for us to discard this theory.

In Nutshell, If Nifty is still in uptrend then this wave of correction should not extend much below 11200 levels and Nifty should soon conquer the gap down it has posted on chart today (11420-11370). If the gap is filled in next couple of trading sessions then probably Nifty will continue with its upmove and post a new high even above 11750 but if this correction drags for few more days and goes on to break below 11200 followed by break of 11100 levels then probably we can conclude that top is done already.

If someone is long and still holding ( ideally all longs should have been exited at 11500 levels) then it would be wise to book profit at these levels and enter again only once 11450-11500 levels is surpassed.

Happy Trading!

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