Near Term Trend: ↑UP
Market update: Nifty opened strong today (infact with a gap up) and went on to touch 11540 levels but couldn't sustain the momentum and dropped below 11500, touched a low of 11430 and finally closed at 11445 down 40 points.
Yesterday we had mentioned that its important for Nifty to sustain above days high (11490) and to cross 11560 levels. However while Nifty opened above 11500 it couldn't sustain the momentum and crashed 100 points from day high. This is not a sign of strong markets and raises questions if yesterdays pull back was merely a temp pull back. If we see further weakness tomorrow below 11430-11400 levels then probably we its going to test 11320 levels again ( or even lower).
There is lot of euphoria and optimism right now in the markets ( Nifty Apr future at 100 point premium??) where everyone is super bullish and expecting markets to touch 12k+ levels ( especially after Goldman Sachs upgrade). But key thing to note is that Nifty is still below the level it was trading at the time of upgrade. All these upgrades and downgrades may not work directly & immediately. Many times we have seen bottom beings made at the time of downgrades & top being made when there are upgrades ( now not saying that this is how its going to work even now) but sometimes smart money uses these events to enter/exit markets so one should not give too much importance to them. If nifty has to move up, it will move up even if these agencies downgrades India. In Summary, market movement determines upgrades/downgrades and not vice versa.
Now coming back to Nifty, since markets have failed to close above yesterdays strong move (which felt like start of a new uptrend) there is a possibility that it was just a bull trap to lure in last of the investors or to get rid of weak shorts which had entered markets in last few days. To reaffirm its bullish stance now Nifty needs to cross 11540 11550 levels and close above it but if it slips below 11400 levels then weakness might persists for times to come.
Timewise/price wise we continue sit at important levels and the high hit by nifty 11560 levels was exactly at 261.8% levels ( which we kept mentioning in our previous posts). So one needs to be super cautious now. There does remain a possibility that markets have already hit a near term top and might reverse from here but the charts are still exhibiting strength and there is plenty of support at 11200 levels and till the time this level is not taken out, the near term trend will remain strong.
Happy Trading!
Market update: Nifty opened strong today (infact with a gap up) and went on to touch 11540 levels but couldn't sustain the momentum and dropped below 11500, touched a low of 11430 and finally closed at 11445 down 40 points.
Yesterday we had mentioned that its important for Nifty to sustain above days high (11490) and to cross 11560 levels. However while Nifty opened above 11500 it couldn't sustain the momentum and crashed 100 points from day high. This is not a sign of strong markets and raises questions if yesterdays pull back was merely a temp pull back. If we see further weakness tomorrow below 11430-11400 levels then probably we its going to test 11320 levels again ( or even lower).
There is lot of euphoria and optimism right now in the markets ( Nifty Apr future at 100 point premium??) where everyone is super bullish and expecting markets to touch 12k+ levels ( especially after Goldman Sachs upgrade). But key thing to note is that Nifty is still below the level it was trading at the time of upgrade. All these upgrades and downgrades may not work directly & immediately. Many times we have seen bottom beings made at the time of downgrades & top being made when there are upgrades ( now not saying that this is how its going to work even now) but sometimes smart money uses these events to enter/exit markets so one should not give too much importance to them. If nifty has to move up, it will move up even if these agencies downgrades India. In Summary, market movement determines upgrades/downgrades and not vice versa.
Now coming back to Nifty, since markets have failed to close above yesterdays strong move (which felt like start of a new uptrend) there is a possibility that it was just a bull trap to lure in last of the investors or to get rid of weak shorts which had entered markets in last few days. To reaffirm its bullish stance now Nifty needs to cross 11540 11550 levels and close above it but if it slips below 11400 levels then weakness might persists for times to come.
Timewise/price wise we continue sit at important levels and the high hit by nifty 11560 levels was exactly at 261.8% levels ( which we kept mentioning in our previous posts). So one needs to be super cautious now. There does remain a possibility that markets have already hit a near term top and might reverse from here but the charts are still exhibiting strength and there is plenty of support at 11200 levels and till the time this level is not taken out, the near term trend will remain strong.
Happy Trading!
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