Medium Term Trend: ↓Down (Changes to up above 9800)
9300 Returns: On Friday, markets had seen weakness and had closed with a loss of around 160 points. Today even though markets slipped 100 points from day high, it managed to cover most of the losses of previous trading session.
We had turned cautious and Mildly bearish on Friday, the way Nifty had turned without making a new high was raising question if the current rally is over ( at around 9330 levels instead of 9500-9700 as we were expecting previously. However todays gap up and 100% retracement of Fridays fall again opens up the possibility of Nifty testing 9500+ levels.
9350 level is turning out to be a formidable resistance but this could give way anytime. Infact more Nifty hangs around this level , more the chances of its break on the upside. No resistance or support should be tested more than 2-3 times Here we have spent almost 1 month at same level. This remind me of Nov'18- Jan'19 period. During this period Nifty kept falling from 11K levels to 10500-10600 and after a struggle of 10-12 weeks it finally managed to break it on the upside.
So its very much likely that 9300 will eventually be taken out but its also likely that Nifty drops once more towards 8500 levels before it does that
On weekly charts Nifty has formed back to back shooting star and on daily chart, Fridays daily candle was 'gravestone Doji' (where market opens and then move higher but returns back to opening levels just before close) and today again we have another 'gravestone Doji' on daily charts. Gravestone Doji can change the near term trend of the mkts & start a trending move on either side (can be both bearish and bullish). Nifty did manage to cross Fridays high but now todays high (9380) become another critical level to watch out for & on the downside 9130 becomes the all important level. Below 9130 we will have a lower low and if Nifty breaches that then the sequence of higher low will be negated and it could have bearish consequences (for immediate term).
Just to summarise, Fridays fall had turned us cautious and we were expecting markets to fall however todays move back above 9300 ( inspite of 100 points slippage from 9380) proves that it was not to be & that short term trend continues to remain up for now. Fall below Fridays low ( around 9130 levels) could be a game changed for short term and fresh shorts are only advised below once it breaks. Holding the same can push Nifty back towards 9500 levels. Markets continues to be choppy but this can change anytime.
9300 Returns: On Friday, markets had seen weakness and had closed with a loss of around 160 points. Today even though markets slipped 100 points from day high, it managed to cover most of the losses of previous trading session.
We had turned cautious and Mildly bearish on Friday, the way Nifty had turned without making a new high was raising question if the current rally is over ( at around 9330 levels instead of 9500-9700 as we were expecting previously. However todays gap up and 100% retracement of Fridays fall again opens up the possibility of Nifty testing 9500+ levels.
9350 level is turning out to be a formidable resistance but this could give way anytime. Infact more Nifty hangs around this level , more the chances of its break on the upside. No resistance or support should be tested more than 2-3 times Here we have spent almost 1 month at same level. This remind me of Nov'18- Jan'19 period. During this period Nifty kept falling from 11K levels to 10500-10600 and after a struggle of 10-12 weeks it finally managed to break it on the upside.
So its very much likely that 9300 will eventually be taken out but its also likely that Nifty drops once more towards 8500 levels before it does that
On weekly charts Nifty has formed back to back shooting star and on daily chart, Fridays daily candle was 'gravestone Doji' (where market opens and then move higher but returns back to opening levels just before close) and today again we have another 'gravestone Doji' on daily charts. Gravestone Doji can change the near term trend of the mkts & start a trending move on either side (can be both bearish and bullish). Nifty did manage to cross Fridays high but now todays high (9380) become another critical level to watch out for & on the downside 9130 becomes the all important level. Below 9130 we will have a lower low and if Nifty breaches that then the sequence of higher low will be negated and it could have bearish consequences (for immediate term).
Just to summarise, Fridays fall had turned us cautious and we were expecting markets to fall however todays move back above 9300 ( inspite of 100 points slippage from 9380) proves that it was not to be & that short term trend continues to remain up for now. Fall below Fridays low ( around 9130 levels) could be a game changed for short term and fresh shorts are only advised below once it breaks. Holding the same can push Nifty back towards 9500 levels. Markets continues to be choppy but this can change anytime.
Happy Trading
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