Friday, April 17, 2020

Nifty Analysis: Outlook and Trend for 20th Apr 2020

Medium Term Trend: ↓Down (Changes to up above 9800)

Nifty Flies: Nifty opened with a bang around 9300 levels and then slowly drifted towards 9100 levels (disappointed by no cut in repo rates by RBI) but buying emerged at 9100 levels and pushed Nifty back towards 9300 levels.

Nifty needed to move back above 9100-9150 levels to signal resumption of short-term uptrend and Nifty did that in style. Though there were some intraday scares, Nifty finally managed to close near the high point of the day.

On Weekly charts this is the second consecutive higher close (first time it happened in last 6 months) and could indicate that undertone is slowly improving. For this week, Nifty has posted a hanging man/shooting star like pattern which could have some bearish implications if the highs of this week are not convincingly crossed. So in coming week we need Nifty to trade above 9325 levels if that happens then we are heading towards 9500-9700 levels. On the downside 9100 has emerged as a strong support now.

In summary, holding 9200 and moving above 9325 levels could push Nifty towards 9500-9700 levels and on the downside, if 9100 breaks, then it could drop towards 8900 levels once again. Below 8900 we can test 8500-8300 (chances are this scenario playing out are slim though).

From trading perspective we have been recommending against going short in this market ( and now you know why). One should look to trade only on the long side and if Nifty manages to crossing over 9325 levels convincingly on Monday then that would strengthen our stand further.


Happy Trading.
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