Thursday, March 5, 2020

Nifty Analysis: Outlook and Trend for 6th Mar 2020

Medium Term Trend: ↓Down (Changes to up above 11700)

Inverted hammer : Nifty opened around 11300 and inspired by Dow overnight rally, it tried to move up but found resistance in 11380 zone and dropped to 11250 levels in the last hour. It closed flat at 11270.

Today nifty formed a "Inverted hammer" candle (inverted hammer candle has a long upper shadow but small body) which signifies that bulls were not able to sustain the rally and bears managed to push Nifty back towards opening prices. Its an interesting candle since yesterday we had a 'hanging man candle' on the charts which is the exact mirror of "inverted hammer". So what bulls did to bears yesterday was in a way dished out to bulls by bears today. Both these candle could signify trend change for near term hence going forward move aboe 11380 and a move below 11100 could well be a beginning of new trend ( for the short term).

Key thing to note is that now Nifty has started hitting new highs and is protecting the lows of previous day ( i.e, not closing below it). Today was 3rd such day. we had mentioned that it will be good for Nifty if we dont see a sharp V shaped recovery but instead see some consolidation and grinding. Nifty is indeed seen consolidating now around 11200 levels ( which can be positive for near term if it continue to protect some important lows).

Global markets (especially dow) continue to be all over the place with Dow rising 1000 points one day and falling 1000 points the next. Even today right now Dow future is down 500 points as we update this blog. As a trader if you are looking at dow and then deciding your trading strategy then I am afraid its not a best thing to do (One has to look at Nifty charts and then decide which way to trade). Now going forward as we mentioned  11380 and 11100 becomes important I know its a big range but VIX is sitting at 25 hence 250-300 point is not really a big deal in present scenario. Crossing above 11380 could give Nifty a shot at all imp gap zone which is sitting at 11450-11550 however on the downside if 11100 breaks then things could once again turn ugly.

In Nutshell, for now Nifty is trying to make some sort of base around these levels and if it manages to  make a move above 11380 levels then we can see some more bounce in near term but if we start seeing weakness below 11150-11100 zone then there is a strong possibility of Nifty going down and opening another downleg.

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