Medium Term Trend: ↑UP (down below 11550)
Strength returns: After falling around 400 points form days high yesterday, Nifty found strength today and rose to 11850 levels. It made a strong close at 11841 ( up 187 points).
In last 2 days VIX has fallen around 50% ( from 29 to 16) which in turn has destroyed premiums of options across various strike prices. We had mentioned ( more than once) in our previous posts that 11640-700 is a strong support for market and unless it breaks, the trend will remain strong and on the upside. Inspite of falling 400 points yesterday Nifty held on to its support and today gave more push up.
So is it safe to assume that fall yesterday was just a profit booking and now that markets are settled and the move has resumed? Probably so, but we need more strength above 11880-11910 levels( todays high) to conclude the same. Yesterdays fall was a ibt too strong and probably markets will be spending a little more time around 11700 before moving up from here. Market trend remains up but with a caution & another bout of profit booking can not be ruled at this stage.
One disturbing thing (for bulls) to note is that, on daily charts, the entire rise from 11108 is looking like one extracting triangle where rise are getting shorter and falls are getting bigger ( and it seems in its last E leg). Nifty needs more strength above 11900 levels to negate this pattern ( which can have strong bearish implications going forward).
So overall market are in uptrend but further profit booking and weakness as a result can not be ruled out however as long as 11600 and 11550 levels are holding, the prospects of Nifty hitting 12K+ levels is still there. For any bearish scenario to materialize , we need to see strong fall from here breaking below 11550-11500 levels in next few days. More time markets spends above 11600, more the chances of markets going further up from here are there.
Happy Trading!
Strength returns: After falling around 400 points form days high yesterday, Nifty found strength today and rose to 11850 levels. It made a strong close at 11841 ( up 187 points).
In last 2 days VIX has fallen around 50% ( from 29 to 16) which in turn has destroyed premiums of options across various strike prices. We had mentioned ( more than once) in our previous posts that 11640-700 is a strong support for market and unless it breaks, the trend will remain strong and on the upside. Inspite of falling 400 points yesterday Nifty held on to its support and today gave more push up.
So is it safe to assume that fall yesterday was just a profit booking and now that markets are settled and the move has resumed? Probably so, but we need more strength above 11880-11910 levels( todays high) to conclude the same. Yesterdays fall was a ibt too strong and probably markets will be spending a little more time around 11700 before moving up from here. Market trend remains up but with a caution & another bout of profit booking can not be ruled at this stage.
One disturbing thing (for bulls) to note is that, on daily charts, the entire rise from 11108 is looking like one extracting triangle where rise are getting shorter and falls are getting bigger ( and it seems in its last E leg). Nifty needs more strength above 11900 levels to negate this pattern ( which can have strong bearish implications going forward).
So overall market are in uptrend but further profit booking and weakness as a result can not be ruled out however as long as 11600 and 11550 levels are holding, the prospects of Nifty hitting 12K+ levels is still there. For any bearish scenario to materialize , we need to see strong fall from here breaking below 11550-11500 levels in next few days. More time markets spends above 11600, more the chances of markets going further up from here are there.
Happy Trading!
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