Medium Term Trend: ↓Down ( up above 11640)
Choppiness Continues: After a fall of ~150 points from day high yesterday, Nifty today rose 150 points from day low to close at 11260 levels up 100 points.
Since last 2 days we have been mentioning that for immediate term 11150-11300 range is important and a break on either side might lead to further momentum in that direction. Yesterday markets tested 11300 and closed at 11150 levels and today again it hovered around 11150 till most part but didn't break it and then in last hour or so again shot up to 11300.
The way markets have reacted from 11100 levels in last 2 days raises the possibility that probably a counter move is ready to be seen. Now if this countermove is a corrective rally then it will finish in 3 legs ( A-B-C). We are already in C leg, A leg started from 11108 went till 11286, B leg started from 11286 and touched 11136 yesterday and C leg started from 11136 and continues.
Now c leg can take any form, if its an irregular pattern then it can be smaller than A leg and can finish anywhere near 11300 itself. If its a normal pattern then C leg can measure equal to A leg in which case it can go upto 11330 levels and then reverse. If its an extended correction then C leg can measure 150-161.8% of a leg which can propel Nifty to 11380 to 11420 levels.
However there is another scenario or probability as per which the move started from 11108 couple of days back is actually an impulsive 1-2-3-4-5 move which can take Nifty higher.
So continue to observe markets for now, next few days could be very crucial, if the rise we are seeing is just an corrective move then markets will reverse very sharply anywhere from 11300-11420 levels (always keep this in mind). However if 11420-11450 levels is crossed and markets start spending time around 11500 levels then probably we can say the correction is over and bottom is in place (for time being) at 11108 level.
VIX continues to soar and has reached 28-29 which is pretty high and Nifty futures continues to loses OI (now sitting at 1.5 crores) which suggests markets are very light for now.
Happy Trading!
Choppiness Continues: After a fall of ~150 points from day high yesterday, Nifty today rose 150 points from day low to close at 11260 levels up 100 points.
Since last 2 days we have been mentioning that for immediate term 11150-11300 range is important and a break on either side might lead to further momentum in that direction. Yesterday markets tested 11300 and closed at 11150 levels and today again it hovered around 11150 till most part but didn't break it and then in last hour or so again shot up to 11300.
The way markets have reacted from 11100 levels in last 2 days raises the possibility that probably a counter move is ready to be seen. Now if this countermove is a corrective rally then it will finish in 3 legs ( A-B-C). We are already in C leg, A leg started from 11108 went till 11286, B leg started from 11286 and touched 11136 yesterday and C leg started from 11136 and continues.
Now c leg can take any form, if its an irregular pattern then it can be smaller than A leg and can finish anywhere near 11300 itself. If its a normal pattern then C leg can measure equal to A leg in which case it can go upto 11330 levels and then reverse. If its an extended correction then C leg can measure 150-161.8% of a leg which can propel Nifty to 11380 to 11420 levels.
However there is another scenario or probability as per which the move started from 11108 couple of days back is actually an impulsive 1-2-3-4-5 move which can take Nifty higher.
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| Nifty 30 Min chart |
So continue to observe markets for now, next few days could be very crucial, if the rise we are seeing is just an corrective move then markets will reverse very sharply anywhere from 11300-11420 levels (always keep this in mind). However if 11420-11450 levels is crossed and markets start spending time around 11500 levels then probably we can say the correction is over and bottom is in place (for time being) at 11108 level.
VIX continues to soar and has reached 28-29 which is pretty high and Nifty futures continues to loses OI (now sitting at 1.5 crores) which suggests markets are very light for now.
Happy Trading!
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