Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Nifty Trend for 15th Feb 2022

 Medium Term Trend:👇(Down)

Nifty @ 16840 down 530 points- Black Monday & Weakness To The Core.

In our last post we had clearly warned that -

"Failure to sustain above 17600 levels is again pointing to the fact that market is still not out of woods and one more down-leg towards 17K-16800 is very much possible from here"

we had also mentioned that " with each successive days markets internals are getting weaker and the post budget move (17600-17800) is now appearing to look like one giant bull trap"

Last week we had also tweeted and posted  the below chart.

In the chart above, it can be seen that Nifty was potentially making a bearish contracting triangle,  confirmation of which was to come below BD line and same has come today. 

Breaking of contracting triangle is a very bearish sign for markets. It confirms that initial fall from 18500 to 16450  was a trending move and the recovery we have seen after that (in the form of ABCDE triangle) was just a corrective move. This has opened up bearish targets for as low as 15500 ( now not saying that Nifty will definitely going to touch it but its a possibility hence we must be prepared for it.

Nifty has been testing 16850-17000 support a lot of times already and ideally such important supports should not be tested again and again and though Nifty has closed just around this support zone, chances are it might not hold this time. If one is still holding on to long positions in a hope that 16850 will provide support yet again then please be careful.

Till now we had been saying that this could be a sideways phase for nifty (16500-18500) however now we have to change it. This is no sideways market, market is in grip of a strong bear wave and it will be premature to comment where it will end. 

Happy Trading!

Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Nifty Trend for 07th Feb 2022

  Medium Term Trend:👇(Down)

Nifty @ 17516 down 44 points- Weakness Emerging Yet Again.

Nifty continues to remain volatile even after budget and made an attempt towards 18000 levels however it could not sustain above 17600-17700 levels and has again moved down towards 17500 levels.

When nifty moved above 17600 levels after budget, it looked good for a brief period & there were chances of market moving further towards 18K levels. However the failure to sustain above 17600 levels is again pointing to the fact that market is still not out of woods and one more down-leg towards 17K-16800 is very much possible from here. with each successive days markets internals are getting weaker and the post budget move (17600-17800) is now appearing to look like one giant bull trap.

Nifty now has a strong resistance placed at 17675-17700 levels and it must move above it quickly for any bullish scenario to emerge again on the other hand final support exists at 17340-17375 levels below which market could see sharp selling and move down to 17K or even lower levels once again.

In summary, markets are still looking very fragile & in case we do not start trading above 17700 levels but instead keep hitting lower lows and fall further below 17350 levels in next 1-2 trading sessions then more weakness is likely and market could see sharp dips once again. As mentioned in last update, market has taken support at 16800 levels already 2-3 times and this level ideally should not be tested again but if it does then the chances are it might not hold this time around.

Happy Trading!!

 

Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Nifty Trend for 31st Jan 2022

 Medium Term Trend:👇(Down)

Nifty @ 17100- Closed flat

Nifty opened on a positive note & was 250 point + at one point however selling pressure emerged once again and markets gave up all the days gain to close up flat. In the process market formed a 'shooting star' pattern on the charts and it can have strong bearish implications in case we see follow-up selling on Monday (below todays low).

In last post we had mentioned that overall markets seems to be in a range but the range seems quite big (16500-18500). Now looking at charts its possible that we may fall towards the lower end of this trading range (especially if we see weakness below 17K levels on Monday/Tuesday). hence we have changed the medium term indicator to 'Down' for the time being. There are more negative points than positive points on the chart so its better to pick a side instead of waiting on the sidelines.

Now lets talk about some of the points which are bothering us. Firstly, there was a strong pullback which started yesterday from the lows of 16850. Now markets have made a double bottom at 16850 which is a positive sign had market continue to move up from there. After a vicious fall of 1300-1400 points from top, 3-4 strong trading sessions were expected of markets, instead Nifty succumbed on 2nd day of pullback and its failure to hold on to its intraday gain today suggests weakness is still there and same also indicates that probably one more leg of selling is still pending.

We consider levels of 17450 as the 'breakdown' level of this fall, selling had intensified & turned ugly once this level broke early this week. It was important that Nifty had moved back above this level to regain some of the lost ground. However todays fall (even though markets just closed flat) from just below 17400 levels indicates that 17400-450 is now turning into a significant resistance and unless Nifty climbes back above it, theres is risk of markets moving back below 17K levels.

Another thing worth noticing is how markets expired yesterday. Some pull back from 17850 levels came at just the right time as if to give the incentive to buyers to roll over/ carry forward their position to next month series. Now there is a growing consensus in the markets that there exists strong support in the 16800-17000 zone which worries me a bit. Any support or resistance level which is known to everyone hardly ever holds.

In summary, looking at the way market has traded in the last 2 days, theres a probability emerging that another round of selling is possible from current levels which could take markets below recent lows (16800 levels). Hence caution is still warranted and bottom fishing should be avoided for time being let market build/show some strength ( move above 17450-500) before concluding that worst is over. 

Happy Trading!

Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Nifty Trend for 27th Jan 2022

Medium Term Trend:👈👉 (Sideways)

Nifty @ 17275- Crashed 1300+ points in 6 days.

In last update, we had shared that we saw two possibilities emerging from here ' A- market makes a V shape recovery and shoots above 18500 levels or B- mkt consolidate between 17400-18500 levels for few more weeks' We had also mentioned that the other scenario where market fall below 17K level is our least preferred scenario and in case it happens we will relook at our options.

As it played out, our analysis was proved wrong & Nifty weakened below 17400 levels yesterday, tested 17K levels and today it even broke below 17K levels (though temporarily) before staging some sort of recovery and closing around 17300 levels. But now since market has convincingly broken below 17400 levels, its important that we re-analyse the whole scenario in the new light.

Fall we have seen in last few trading sessions has been pretty sharp with VIX rising sharply. Domestic (budget/elections), Global (Fed meet) & Geopolitical (Ukraine/Russia) events have taken center stage and playing out with the markets & traders sentiment. However inspite of such a brutal fall, we still would like to stick with our second option (i.e, option B- range bound trade) though with a revised range.

For now it appears market wants to trade in a sideways range (between 16500-18500 on a larger scale and 17000-18000 on a slightly smaller scale). We had previously noted ( ref  Nifty 20th Dec Update) that fall from 18500 to 16500 was extensive and broad based & its not uncommon to see market going in for an extended period of consolidation post such moves. So we wont be surprised to see market moving in this range of 1000-1500 point for few more weeks. 

Moving forward, it is likely that markets more or less has priced in these events, and unless global situation deteriorates severely, we do not see sustainable fall below 16700 levels. There could be flash trades (like today) but eventually market should be able to move from there. Moving above key resistance of 18000-18500 however will take some doing and wont be easy.

In Summary, inspite of the carnage we have seen in last 6 days, we maintain our 'Neutral' stance & not turning bearish yet. From trading perspective it makes sense to sit out for some time (or trade with light quantities). Scenario is likely to become clearer in coming trading sessions.

 Happy Trading!

Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Nifty Trend for 21st Jan 2022

Medium Term Trend:☝/👈👉 (UP/Sideways with upward bias)

Nifty @ 17757 - Nifty loses 600+ points in 3 days

Before we start analyzing markets, lets see what we had discussed last time around in previous update.

2nd Jan- "it may or may not run away above 18K and 18500 levels in a hurry and might just consolidate between 17-18K levels for some more time but the bias and trajectory even in that scenario is likely to remain on the UP or positive side"

When markets were trading below 17K levels we were clear in our analysis and had mentioned that downside seems to have played out and markets can move towards 18000/500 levels (it may or may not cross those level anytime sooner). Now even today we maintain our stand, even though markets have shed about 600 points in a matter of few days nothing has changed still. From here two options are likely to playout.

A) Market start making quick V shape recovery in coming trading sessions and move strongly above 18500 levels and touches 19K an beyond.

B) Market consolidate between 18500-17500/400 levels ( in a 1000-1200) point zone for few more weeks and then make a breakout.

There is a also a third option that market once again falls below 17K levels ( which is our least preferred scenario for now hence we are not considering it for time being. If we see sustained selling/weakness below 17500/400 levels then we will have a relook at our options again and post the update here.

In Summary, both the options mentioned above are positive and highlights the underlying strength in the markets hence trades can be taken accordingly. Till now we have not seen any reversal on the charts which suggests that we need to change/modify our stand (it is too soon for that). Its likely that market is 'adjusting' itself for the upcoming big event (Budget) hence some rise in volatility is totally expected. As a trader one has to be quite nimble capable of making a quick entry and exit and as always, its prudent to reduce qty slightly before such an event.

Dont try and predict market, always react to it.

Happy Trading!

Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Nifty Trend for 03rd Jan 2022

 

Medium Term Trend:☝/👈👉 (UP/Sideways with upward bias)

Nifty @ 17350 - Downcycle over & Nifty adding strength

In the last update, I had mentioned that "in both scenario it seems either markets have already opened a new leg on the upside or it will open the same on Monday" & "Time is running out for Bears and if they fail to act in next 1-2 trading sessions then its likely that Bulls can once again start controlling the markets"

Now in last 5 trading sessions ( since last update), market has added 350+ points. Nifty had dropped below 17900 levels on last Monday in a flash trade but it was for a very brief period and after that market has not looked back and is now adding strength (suggesting that down-move seems to be over now) which is exactly in line with my broad analysis.

Like I mentioned earlier, time seems to have run out for Bears and Bulls seems to have taken control of markets and if some are still holding on to their shorts expecting levels of 16500 or below then they are likely to be disappointed. As per me it is highly unlikely that markets will fall towards those level again now.

Overall market is looking strong and positive but since the damage we have seen in last 2-3 months was extensive, it may or may not run away above 18K and 18500 levels in a hurry and might just consolidate between 17-18K levels for some more time but the bias and trajectory even in that scenario is likely to remain on the UP or positive side. Trade should be executed on long side (preferably buy on dips) instead of sell on rise.

Happy Trading & A Very Happy New Year!!

Nifty Analysis Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Nifty Trend for 27th Dec 2021

 

Medium Term Trend:👇 (Downswing maturing)

Nifty @ 17003 - Nifty Finishing 10 day Downcycle and Managing close above 17000

In the last update, I had mentioned that "it remains to be seen if Nifty manages to move back above 16800-17K levels. Chances are that price wise correction seems to have completed and what we are seeing is just an exaggerated move on the downside which could reverse in a similar fashion in coming trading sessions (when I say reverse I mean move back above 17K levels and not necessarily above 18500 levels).

So after 3 consecutive close just below 17000 levels, Nifty has managed to make a move above 17K levels again and more importantly the weekly close has also come above it which is positive indeed. Another important thing to note is that the lows of Monday were protected and not tested again which suggests that fall witnessed on Monday was just an exaggerated fall or an excess move or a false break on the downside (now that market has moved back above 17K levels).

16900-17K levels was a good support and if the market was actually planning an extended bearish move then ideally it should not have been tested again (let alone mkts trading above it).

We had also highlighted how market is following a 9-10 day cycle of up-moves and down-moves since last 2 months & looking at the charts it seems either the last down-move finished in just 6 days (Monday) or in a irregular move in 10 days (today). In both scenario it seems either markets have already opened a new leg on the upside or it will open the same on Monday.

Overall market still seems to be in Bear trajectory but its hanging just by a thread and can breakout any time. Time is running out for Bears and if they fail to act in next 1-2 trading sessions then its likely that Bulls can once again start controlling the markets.

We may or may not see a runaway rally (as I had pointed out in the last update as well) but even if its a sideway move from here, it will be a sideway move with a positive bias ( where markets slowly but surely be moving up).

Happy Trading!