Medium Term Trend:👇 (Downswing maturing)
Nifty @ 17003 - Nifty Finishing 10 day Downcycle and Managing close above 17000
In the last update, I had mentioned that "it remains to be seen if Nifty manages to move back above 16800-17K levels. Chances are that price wise correction seems to have completed and what we are seeing is just an exaggerated move on the downside which could reverse in a similar fashion in coming trading sessions (when I say reverse I mean move back above 17K levels and not necessarily above 18500 levels).
So after 3 consecutive close just below 17000 levels, Nifty has managed to make a move above 17K levels again and more importantly the weekly close has also come above it which is positive indeed. Another important thing to note is that the lows of Monday were protected and not tested again which suggests that fall witnessed on Monday was just an exaggerated fall or an excess move or a false break on the downside (now that market has moved back above 17K levels).
16900-17K levels was a good support and if the market was actually planning an extended bearish move then ideally it should not have been tested again (let alone mkts trading above it).
We had also highlighted how market is following a 9-10 day cycle of up-moves and down-moves since last 2 months & looking at the charts it seems either the last down-move finished in just 6 days (Monday) or in a irregular move in 10 days (today). In both scenario it seems either markets have already opened a new leg on the upside or it will open the same on Monday.
Overall market still seems to be in Bear trajectory but its hanging just by a thread and can breakout any time. Time is running out for Bears and if they fail to act in next 1-2 trading sessions then its likely that Bulls can once again start controlling the markets.
We may or may not see a runaway rally (as I had pointed out in the last update as well) but even if its a sideway move from here, it will be a sideway move with a positive bias ( where markets slowly but surely be moving up).
Happy Trading!
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