Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 27th Sep 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑ UP (Changes to down below 11050)
Strong Expiry : Nifty opened with a positive bias , just below 11500 levels and quickly moved on to 11600 levels. It traded between 11500-600 for most part of the day and closed at 11570 levels up 130 points.

Today inspite of expiry day, there wasn't too much volatility and Nifty quickly erased all the losses of yesterday. Like we have been guiding and advising, the near term trend for Nifty remains up and all dips could be utilised to enter long positions now.

We had changed the medium term trend of Nifty to 'up' when it closed at 11075 levels couple of weeks back and since then Nifty has gained 500+ points. Infact when Nifty was trading at 10800-700 levels we were continuously advising against going shorts and maintained our view that this was just a part of bottoming out process and Nifty could make some important bottom around these levels and head higher.

On monthly charts ( expiry to expiry) Nifty has gained around 600 points which is a very positive and bullish sign. Going forward, now since Nifty has already run up close to 1000 points from its recent lows so theres a chance of some consolidation around these levels. Its entirely possible that Nifty spend some time here and then move up or it may move a little more from here ( 300-400 points) and then start consolidating. In nutshell it will continue to move up and there is nothing on charts which is suggesting that Nifty wants to go down in a hurry. Tomorrow if chart change then our view will change as well but for now we continue to believe that Nifty is headed higher from here.

below is the snapshot of some of the messages/trades we executed and shared with our subscribers.
 in last few weeks.

07/08/2019, 11:11 - : *nifty 10950 buy 2 parts*
23/08/2019, 09:47 - : Good morning. Nifty 10652. Buy 2 more parts
23/08/2019, 09:49 - : Hold with SL 10620 (Small sl)
23/08/2019, 10:33 - : *nifty 10755 book profit 2 parts long*
30/08/2019, 09:58 - : Trading around 11010. Keep holding longs, let volatility and consolidation (whatever little is remaining) play out. Post this consolidation we expect nifty to break much higher levels.
03/09/2019, 09:26 - : Good morning, nifty trading weak @10920 weak gdp data and iip numbers weighing heavily on mkts. Keep holding longs for now
06/09/2019, 09:55 - : *nifty 10892 sell 10800 PE @ 112*
06/09/2019, 09:56 - : Alternatively nifty long can be initiated at cmp @10890.
06/09/2019, 15:06 - : Njfty 10945. Less risky traders can book profits in long initiated today around 10890 or in 10800 pe. Else carry all long for next week.
09/09/2019, 09:50 - : Good morning, nifty trading around 10920. Keep holding all longs for now. Nothing to be done
09/09/2019, 10:08 - : *book profit nifty 10800 PE @cmp 77*
09/09/2019, 10:09 - : Nifty 10977.keep holding long nifty futures.
19/09/2019, 11:41 - : Nifty 10760, nothing to be done yet. Nifty might make a u turn soon
19/09/2019, 15:22 - : Nifty 10715.carry longs for Tomorrow
20/09/2019, 11:52 - : Nifty 11205, seeing an unprecedented rally. Up 500 points. It was long overdue though. Risky traders can book some part profit at these levels else continue to hold all 4 parts
20/09/2019, 15:03 - : Nifty 11280. Carry all longs for nifty
20/09/2019, 15:03 - : Less risky traders can do some part profit booking.
23/09/2019, 09:15 - : *nifty 11580 book profit 2 parts*


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Happy Trading!

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 25th Sep 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑ UP (Changes to down below 11050)

Adding Strength : Nifty opened flat and consolidated around 11600 levels for most part of the day. It closed at 11590 , down 10 points.

Nifty has gone up more than a  1000 points in last 2-3 trading session. We had continuously been mentioning since last one month that 10700-10800 is a possible bottoming out zone and could be a long term bottom for Nifty and if Nifty holds it that it can touch higher levels. Nifty indeed made a bottom around 10700 levels and after spending few days of high volatility it jumped in one sharp move and took everyone with surprise. Of course the corp rate tax cut helped but markets were destined to move higher anyways (announcements/reasons are always secondary). If markets wants to move up they will find some or the other excuse to do so ( same is true when it wants to go down).

Going forward, now since that Nifty has moved so much hence we could see some consolidation or range bound  movement at current levels or its entirely possible that we see one more sharp upmove and then see some correction/sideway movement but the overall trajectory of Market in near term is likely to remain up now. On the downside 11350-11450 should offer good support to Nifty now.

In Nutshell, Nifty is now in a strong uptrend and is likely to move up further in near term from these levels hence any dip should be utilized for going long only. We don't recommend going short at any level.


Happy Trading!
                       





 

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 23rd Sep 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑ UP (Changes to down below 10820)

Monster Rally : Nifty opened on a flattish note around 10700 but quickly jumped up at the news of corp rate taxcut and didn't look back. Market jumped by a mammoth 600 point plus and Nifty closed at 11274 levels.

Regular reader of our blog are aware that we have been maintaining a bullish stand since last 2-3 weeks and have been continuously mentioning that the volatility we are witnessing is just part of the bottoming out process. We expected Nifty to hit bottom around 10700-10800 zone and made a move on the upside. Volatility may have got a bit stretched but we had clearly mentioned in our last update "don't be scared of the volatility, its highly likely that its just part of the bottoming out process which could push Nifty on the upside again" and that's how markets panned out exactly. We had changed the medium term trend of markets to 'up' from 'down' last Friday ( when we got a close above 11075)

We had also mentioned that 11800 is a strong support but in case it breaks , markets can drift to 10650-700 levels but as long as 10583 is not broken the trend will not change. Yesterday markets broke below 10800 and tested 11670 levels and today it has moved up back to 11300 levels. Now many can claim that move up on the upside has come due to rate cut tax but frankly if markets didn't want to go up then this upmove could have easily fizzled out after 100-200 point. This upmove was due and it would have come anyways regardless of news or no news.

In such markets its always prudent to trade in the direction of main trend and at the same time one should not try trade too much by trying to time markets. Get into position and stick with it till the time trend doesn't changes. Those who exited during last 2-3 days fall would find difficult to enter again as markets have run up beyond their reach in blink of an eye. Today market has cancelled last 4 days fall in just one day and going by the rules of Neo-Wave this marks the beginning of a new uptrend.

Going forward , we believe the move we have seen today is just the beginning the of an impending bull run in Indian stock markets. Now since we have seen a strong 6% rally in just one trading session its possible that we might see some consolidation around current levels but markets have shown that an important bottom is done at 10650 levels which now should not be visited again in rest of 2019 (or even 2020). From trading perspective we maintain our bullish stance and our advise would be to continue with your long position. Nifty should continue to move on the upside from here towards higher (much higher) levels.

FYI,- below are the message we shared with out subscribers yesterday (Indicated that U turn is likely soon and long positions to be carried)

19/09/2019,09:32 - Good morning, nifty 10785. Keep holding all long positions for now
19/09/2019, 11:41 -Nifty 10760, nothing to be done yet. Nifty might make a u turn soon
19/09/2019, 15:22 -Nifty 10715.Carry all longs for Tomorrow.

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 Happy Trading!

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 18th Sep 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑ UP (Changes to down below 10583)

Sharp Plunge : Nifty opened weak around 11K levels and keep pushing its way down and even tested 10800 levels just before the close. It closed at 10817 with a substantial loss of  185 points.

We have been mentioning since last few days (weeks actually) about Nifty making a bottom around 10700-10800 and starting a new leg on the upside. Last Friday, Nifty even gave a close above 11075 levels ( though by just one point) which was the pivotal point as per us from the medium term perspective. However today Nifty fell by a whopping 200 points and in last 2 days Market has lost around 250+ points but still that doesn't change our view. We continue to maintain that the volatility we are witnessing is just part of the bottoming out process. Now this may stop tomorrow or might continue for few more trading sessions but till now there is nothing on the charts which is suggesting that market is opening a fresh down move.

In yesterdays post we had clearly mentioned that any fresh down move can only be expected below 10800 levels only. Today market has taken support exactly at 10800 levels (infact it closed around 10800 so will know in next 1-2 sessions if 10800 indeed proves to be a crucial support). Bulls do not have to worry as long as 10800 stands. Only once market start trading below 10800 can we expect some more weakness and even then as long as 10583 is intact, the chances of market bottoming out at current levels and making a dash towards higher level is still there.

In Nutshell, don't be scared of the volatility, its highly likely that its just part of the bottoming out process which could push Nifty on the upside again. Holding 10800 could push Nifty back to 11K+ levels. However, in case Nifty start trading below 10800 levels and sustain there for more than 30-45 minutes then probably we could see some more weakness and Nifty drops to 10700-650 levels.

Happy Trading!


 

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 17th Sep 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑ UP (Changes to down below 10583)

Back to 11k : Nifty opened weak around 11K levels and keep trading between 10975-11040 levels for most part of the. It finally closed at 11004, down 70 points.

Friday, Nifty had closed above 11075 levels which put Nifty in a uptrend for the medium term as per us however the global weakness on account of attack on Saudi Oil facilities ensured that Nifty once again dropped to 11K levels, however this doesn't change much and the current fall should be seen as a minor corrective move before the next wave on the upside begins.

Going forward Nifty can see some more weakness towards 10950-10900 levels but for now its unlikely that it would developed into something bigger on the downside. Any big move on the downside can be expected only once market break below 10800 ( and then 10583 below that).

In summary, inspite of a 70 point fall today, we remain bullish on markets in near term and expect market to start moving as soon as its done consolidating around current levels. Consolidation or the corrective move we are seeing can continue for few more days and once Nifty start trading above 11100 levels and 11240 above that then we can safely conclude that a fresh upmove has started on the upside. For immediate basis expect 10900-950 to offer very good support to Nifty.

Perspective will change only once Nifty start trading below 10800-825 levels.


Happy Trading!

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 16th Sep 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑ UP (Changes to down below 10583)

11075 Conquered : Nifty opened  flat but quickly dropped to 10950 levels. After threatening to make a move down it started moving up in late trade and touched 11080 levels. It closed at 11076 up almost 100points.

11075 was our pivotal level for medium term and same has been crossed today. Though the move has been slow and has taken more time than we would have ideally liked to see but still it doesn't change much. Yesterday when Nifty failed to cross 11075 levels and started moving down, there was a possibility of markets giving one more dip on the downside before moving up. Markets did fall below 11K levels but the fall wasn't steep and was arrested at 10950 levels itself.

Now that we have successfully closed above 11075 levels ( that too on weekly charts as well) further strength and one more close above 11075 should open higher targets for Nifty. We see 11240-250 as the next logical target for Nifty and 11K should offer good amount of support for Nifty.

If Nifty can show strength above 11250 levels then there is a possibility of Nifty testing much higher levels from here (11400-11500+). Most of the bad news is already factored in by the markets and US markets are already near their all time high. So from that perspective Nifty has a lot of catching up to do.


Happy Trading!

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 12th Sep 2019

Medium Term Trend: ↓ Down (Changes to Up above 11075)

11k Holds: Nifty opened positive around 11025 levels and spent whole day consolidating between 11020-11060 levels. it finally closed at 11036, up 30 points.

Nifty overall movement remains on expected line and regular reader of this blog are aware that when markets were falling, we were continuously maintain a bullish view and were expecting Nifty to move from 10700 levels. Nifty has moved around 300-350 points from the lows already and now needs to move above 11075 level ( which is our pivotal level for medium term) to open up further upside.

We had also mentioned that the move from lower levels needs to be impulsive and sharp however the upmove is not as sharp ( till now) as we were expecting so there could be a possibility of some sharp and sudden choppy moves on the downside but those should  buying opportunity only.

For immediate term 11075 and 11250 are 2 criticals levels to watch out for and crossing these levels would open further upside towards 11400-500 however if Nifty fails to break out 11075 soon and  take another 2-3 sessions to do so then we can expect another round of sell off and a possible dip towards 10800 levels.

Most oscillators on daily charts have crossed over to positive territory and we continue to see strength building up on short term charts as well.

Many are asking to update the medium term chart/view on Nifty which we will do pretty soon but as far as the chart reading goes (as of now), there are only 2 strong possibility a) Either Nifty consolidates around these levels for 4-5 weeks more and then start moving up shortly ( towards mid/end October) or b) Nifty start moving up immediately from current levels itself.

So its just a matter of timing. Markets could start breaking up on the upside immediately or it might pause and spend little more time here and then start moving up. Sustained downside is not looking possible ( basis current picture) however things can change anytime and if tomorrow the picture changes then we will have to change our view accordingly  as well but as of now we can see only 2 options and both are positive.

Happy Trading