Friday, September 20, 2019

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 23rd Sep 2019

Medium Term Trend:  UP (Changes to down below 10820)

Monster Rally : Nifty opened on a flattish note around 10700 but quickly jumped up at the news of corp rate taxcut and didn't look back. Market jumped by a mammoth 600 point plus and Nifty closed at 11274 levels.

Regular reader of our blog are aware that we have been maintaining a bullish stand since last 2-3 weeks and have been continuously mentioning that the volatility we are witnessing is just part of the bottoming out process. We expected Nifty to hit bottom around 10700-10800 zone and made a move on the upside. Volatility may have got a bit stretched but we had clearly mentioned in our last update "don't be scared of the volatility, its highly likely that its just part of the bottoming out process which could push Nifty on the upside again" and that's how markets panned out exactly. We had changed the medium term trend of markets to 'up' from 'down' last Friday ( when we got a close above 11075)

We had also mentioned that 11800 is a strong support but in case it breaks , markets can drift to 10650-700 levels but as long as 10583 is not broken the trend will not change. Yesterday markets broke below 10800 and tested 11670 levels and today it has moved up back to 11300 levels. Now many can claim that move up on the upside has come due to rate cut tax but frankly if markets didn't want to go up then this upmove could have easily fizzled out after 100-200 point. This upmove was due and it would have come anyways regardless of news or no news.

In such markets its always prudent to trade in the direction of main trend and at the same time one should not try trade too much by trying to time markets. Get into position and stick with it till the time trend doesn't changes. Those who exited during last 2-3 days fall would find difficult to enter again as markets have run up beyond their reach in blink of an eye. Today market has cancelled last 4 days fall in just one day and going by the rules of Neo-Wave this marks the beginning of a new uptrend.

Going forward , we believe the move we have seen today is just the beginning the of an impending bull run in Indian stock markets. Now since we have seen a strong 6% rally in just one trading session its possible that we might see some consolidation around current levels but markets have shown that an important bottom is done at 10650 levels which now should not be visited again in rest of 2019 (or even 2020). From trading perspective we maintain our bullish stance and our advise would be to continue with your long position. Nifty should continue to move on the upside from here towards higher (much higher) levels.

FYI,- below are the message we shared with out subscribers yesterday (Indicated that U turn is likely soon and long positions to be carried)

19/09/2019,09:32 - Good morning, nifty 10785. Keep holding all long positions for now
19/09/2019, 11:41 -Nifty 10760, nothing to be done yet. Nifty might make a u turn soon
19/09/2019, 15:22 -Nifty 10715.Carry all longs for Tomorrow.

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 Happy Trading!

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