Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 2nd Jul 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑UP (down below 11550)

Bounce Back: Nifty opened strong around 11850 on the back of strong global cues and traded whole day between 11840-11880 levels. It closed at 11865 levels and added 75 points.

After giving a weak closing on Friday nifty bounced back smartly and reversed all its Friday losses and once again reached within the striking distance of 11900 levels. Though Nifty didn't add substantial gains to its opening price, it held on to its opening gain ( which is a positive sign). A game of cat and mouse is in play since last 3 months ( since Apr) where market is moving aimlessly and ended up not going anywhere. Historically speaking July is a month which usually sees big movement/swing trades hence the fact that we have already consumed 3 months at almost same level and a new month has begun today (which generally sees big swings), we can now hope to see a big trending move anytime now.

Todays upmove was basically in line with global markets which went up due to trade tensions between US & China subsiding.If that is the only factor behind todays rally then ideally it should not sustain and market should reverse these gains completely very shortly. However if the rally is part of the ongoing trend and merely helped by this positive news then gains should stay and should add more points going forward.

As far as Nifty is concerned, 11950-11975 still remains a resistance and above that 12070-12080 will pose a big challenge. If  Nifty can clear these hurdle then probably it will be setting up the stage for one strong push on the upside. On the downside, 11800-11760 will continue to provide support and below that 11650-11600 ( evergreen support) will come into play.

Happy Trading! 

 

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 1st Jul 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑UP (down below 11550)

Weakness resurfaces: Nifty opened  positive around 11870 levels but couldn't sustain much above 11850 and drifted towards 11800. It traded around 11800 level for most part of the day and broke it during last hour and touched a low of 11775. It finally closed near the low point of the day @ 11790, down 50 points.

Nifty during last 3 days has been making higher high and higher lows and that had rekindled the positive hope and raised a question if the correction we are witnessing since last few weeks is over finally. Nifty also managed to close above 11845 but it failed to cross its major resistance at 11940-75. Yesterday we had mentioned that if Nifty can sustain above 11800-760 levels then markets may attempt another shot towards 11975 levels. Now that Nifty has broken and sustained below 11800 levels (though 11760 still holds) chances of correction still continuing has increased.Further weakness below 11760 levels would indicate that the last move from 11650-11900 was just another choppy move we have been accustomed to seeing. For a bullish scenario to have played out we shouldn't have seen any hesitation around 11850 levels.

Now that we have failed to cross 11940-975, break below 11760 levels could push Nifty again to 11700 -11650 level and look out for support there. In recent times 11700-600 level has proved to be a formidable support so it remains to be seen if market can count on it for support yet again. To continue with positive scenario Nifty must move above 11900 levels pretty fast and without any delay. Sustained training below 11800 levels will only push nifty to 11700 levels.

Now lets just take a step back and see the bigger picture, when the Apr month started we were at 11750 levels and now even after 3 months we are sitting at same level and there is absolutely no movement whatsoever (barring election time volatility when Nifty had moved to 11100 and then to 12K). Now ofcourse markets cannot remain in such state for long and a big move (on either side) is very likely which again brings to our older post which is suggesting 2 probabilities. (Please ref below link if you haven't till now)
http://niftywaveindia.blogspot.com/2019/06/nifty-outlook-and-trend-for-coming.html 

Overall, Nifty trend still remains up till 11550 holds, however the correction which started from 12103 continues for now.

Happy Trading!

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 28th Jun 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑UP (down below 11550)

Flat closing: Nifty opened around 11875 levels kept trading between 11900-875 levels for most part of the day. It crossed 11900 levels briefly but couldn't sustain for long and dropped to 11825 but managed to make a small bounce and closed flat.

There was lot of volatility after Nifty crossed 11900 levels, it fell sharply to 11830 then again moved up to 11890 and once again fell sharply to 11825 in last 30 mins or so. However volatility on a expiry day is always expected so not too much should be read into it. Thing to notice is that Nifty again made a new high today and protected the lows of previous day. So inspite of the fact that 11900 couldn't be reclaimed on a closing basis, this still counted as a small positive.

We had mentioned in previous posts that even thought 11840 is crossed, Nifty still has a very strong resistance at 11940-11975 and its good to see that market is respecting these levels. Some hesitancy was always expected  above 11900 and that's exactly what happened. If market can sustain around current levels ( 11800) then it might attempt another shot at 11975 levels pretty soon. There are many who are seeing todays sharp reaction from 11920 levels as a completion of corrective pullback and the resumption of bearish move back to 11600-700 levels. I am not suggesting that a bearish move can not start from here, it can very well start but we need to see more weakness before we conclude that. Nifty needs to be break below 11800-760 levels pretty soon from current levels else we might see another move towards 11950 levels in a day or 2.

To summarise, Nifty is trading near a very major resistance zone (11940-975) and today it even reacted down from these levels, if Nifty continue to see weakness from here and Nifty goes on to break 11800-760 levels then most likely its heading back towards 11600 levels however if  it continue to show strength ( like it has been showing since last 3 days) then a restest of 11940-975 is on the card and if that is crossed then a new all time high can be expected pretty soon.

Happy Trading!





 

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 27th Jun 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑UP (down below 11550)

Finding its Feet: Nifty opened a bit weak around 11760 levels but quickly moved above 11800 levels. It traded between 11800-11830 for most part of the day before shooting up to 11870 in last hour. It finally closed around 11850 levels up 50 points.

In the morning session Nifty threatened to play a familiar script where it reverses after a day of strong bullish move. US markets gave a negative close yesterday and that pushed nifty to open negatively in the morning (that would have motivated many traders to open short positions) however Nifty played to a different script today and moved up above 11800 levels. It didn't move above 11840-45 till last hour and kept traders guessing.

We had said yesterdays that if Nifty moves above 11845 tomorrow then it will be the first sign of stabilization & would indicate that the correction which began from 12100 levels is probably coming to an end now. Today markets did exactly did that & both Nifty & Sensex have broken above their previous swing high ( though the closing on Sensex is below that). However this is just the first milestone and market has another very tough resistance sitting at 11940-975 zone. To establish itself in the upmove trajectory firmly, Nifty needs to conquer and move above these levels pretty soon (any delay or hesitation around these levels might push markets down again).

We have also been saying that markets are probably looking to break free ( in either direction) and one needs to stick to his position and at the same time be prepared to change sides quickly as the move on either side could be pretty strong ( please ref to below post if you haven't till now)
http://niftywaveindia.blogspot.com/2019/06/nifty-outlook-and-trend-for-coming.html   

Both the probabilities as mentioned in the above post are still valid and If Nifty is able to cross & sustain 11940-975 then the probability of bullish option will increase.For now markets are trying to stabilize & one needs to observe and see if its able to build further strength from here.

Happy Trading!


 

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 26th Jun 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑UP (down below 11550)

Choppiness Continues: It was again a familiar site today, after dropping to around 11650 levels in early trade, Nifty started moving upwards and didn't look back. It hit a high of 11815 & closed at 11795 up  95 points.  

Current trading environment must be appearing very frustrating to many traders especially after seeing Nifty running like a headless chicken (100 points up one day and 100 down the very next day).We do agree that for extremely short term this may be a difficult period but in long run this could prove to be an excellent trading opportunity. Like we have been saying for last few days that (in all likelihood)  markets are preparing itself for a big move and  right now its just trying to get rid of day traders and weak hands ( both on the short and long side) and only when short term traders are fully frustrated and exhausted completely, it will start moving in a strong trend. Market knows only one way to frustrate and shake the belief of small traders and this is how it does it.

As a traders one needs to be patient and stick with the markets in such times & only those who don't get frustrated, keep trading with discipline & with strong belief will be able to reap the rewards later. Its not easy to stick  with your position when one knows that a counter move of 100-200 points can come at any time. But that is precisely the point.

So technically speaking, Nifty again moved from 11650 levels however thing to note is that ever since market hit a high of 12103, its been in a corrective mode and making lower lows and lower highs. Now today it hit a low of 11650 which is a higher low, the recent high of Nifty was at 11845 and if markets can cross above 11845 tomorrow ( and sustain) then that will signify two things

•  A) Higher high- Which will be a +positive change and after making a series of lower high this will be the first higher high in a long time.
•  b) Emergence of follow up buying: Till recently Nifty has failed to sustain above previous day high and always moved down next day (after a strong day of upmove).Follow up buying above todays high will again be a +ve change

If we do see a sustainable move above 11850 tomorrow then probably it would be an indication that correction we have been seeing since last 2-3 weeks is probably coming to an end. But mind you Nifty still has a very strong resistance at 11940-975 range and if it manages to cross it then in all probability 12100 can be tested again. Also Keep in mind that Dow hit its 52 week high and since last 2 days hovering around that level. Seeing how US markets trades around its all time high could give further clues about what Nifty is going to do in days to come.

Just to summarise, to indicate bullishness , Nifty needs to cross above and sustain above 11845 levels and 11940-975 levels after that. On the other hand if Nifty start slipping again tomorrow then 11730-720 is the level to watch out for and if that breaks nifty can again slip to 11600-1650 levels.

Happy Trading!