Friday, June 28, 2019

Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Trend for 1st Jul 2019

Medium Term Trend:  ↑UP (down below 11550)

Weakness resurfaces: Nifty opened  positive around 11870 levels but couldn't sustain much above 11850 and drifted towards 11800. It traded around 11800 level for most part of the day and broke it during last hour and touched a low of 11775. It finally closed near the low point of the day @ 11790, down 50 points.

Nifty during last 3 days has been making higher high and higher lows and that had rekindled the positive hope and raised a question if the correction we are witnessing since last few weeks is over finally. Nifty also managed to close above 11845 but it failed to cross its major resistance at 11940-75. Yesterday we had mentioned that if Nifty can sustain above 11800-760 levels then markets may attempt another shot towards 11975 levels. Now that Nifty has broken and sustained below 11800 levels (though 11760 still holds) chances of correction still continuing has increased.Further weakness below 11760 levels would indicate that the last move from 11650-11900 was just another choppy move we have been accustomed to seeing. For a bullish scenario to have played out we shouldn't have seen any hesitation around 11850 levels.

Now that we have failed to cross 11940-975, break below 11760 levels could push Nifty again to 11700 -11650 level and look out for support there. In recent times 11700-600 level has proved to be a formidable support so it remains to be seen if market can count on it for support yet again. To continue with positive scenario Nifty must move above 11900 levels pretty fast and without any delay. Sustained training below 11800 levels will only push nifty to 11700 levels.

Now lets just take a step back and see the bigger picture, when the Apr month started we were at 11750 levels and now even after 3 months we are sitting at same level and there is absolutely no movement whatsoever (barring election time volatility when Nifty had moved to 11100 and then to 12K). Now ofcourse markets cannot remain in such state for long and a big move (on either side) is very likely which again brings to our older post which is suggesting 2 probabilities. (Please ref below link if you haven't till now)
http://niftywaveindia.blogspot.com/2019/06/nifty-outlook-and-trend-for-coming.html 


Overall, Nifty trend still remains up till 11550 holds, however the correction which started from 12103 continues for now.

Happy Trading!


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