Nifty View: Update for 25th Jan 2019

Near Term Trend: ↔ (sideways with a positive bias)

Market update: Nifty opened flat and traded in a narrow range of 10840-10800 through out the day. It finally gave a sharp pull back towards the end and closed up 20 points at 10850 levels.

Nifty though did make a new low, it failed to give any follow up selling below yesterdays low. We mentioned in our previous post that yesterdays fall was looking like a corrective move only and especially the last hour fall looked like an "after thought" and that it seemed to lacking any intent or purpose.. We had also mentioned that there are significant divergences to be seen and there is not much room for Nifty to go down.

More or less that's what happened today, whole day Nifty threatened to break below 10800 but it failed to do so as it had already run out of ammunition on previous day. Infact the last hour pull back today looked like a breakout on the upside.

Today markets failed to give any follow up selling below yesterdays low so the down move sort of fizzled out.However if we can see follow up buying above 10870 levels tomorrow then may be we can conclude that correction is over for time being.

Technically speaking, the entire move of last 4-5 days ( from 10850 to 10985 and then fall to 10800 levels) is looking like a irregular correction. If its true then expect a sharp up move from here on.

So overall no change in our view, inspite of 100+ point fall yesterday and todays consolidation, we still feel Nifty can see higher levels from here in short term. If our assumptions are correct then there is a high probability that consolidation and range bound movement we have been witnessing since last few days is now over and a clear trend may emerge soon.

Trading Recommendations: Markets continue to remain deceptive and is punishing traders who are trading on both sides. I don't suggest going short at this stage however if you are already short then you may keep a strict SL of 10910 levels. Long positions can be continued with a SL of 10750 (same as yesterday). Don't overtrade/leverage and manage your risks all the time. Next 2-3 days ( as we approach expiry) could be decider.
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Nifty View: Update for 24th Jan 2019

Near Term Trend: ↔ (sideways with a positive bias)

Market update: Nifty opened at par inspite of a massive 300 point fall in Dow overnight however it kept struggling entire day at its familiar resistance of 10930 and crashed almost 110 points in last hour trading to 10810 levels before finally closing at 10831 (down 90 points).

Nifty broke below its recent support zone of 10840-50 which has been supporting market since last so many days. So can we conclude that Nifty is in a bearish trend and has started a fresh leg downwards? We don't think so. Fall of last 2 days which we have seen is not convincing enough. Not only its lacking momentum, any sort of direction or purpose is totally missing from it. The entire fall from 10987 ( Monday) till date is looking like a A-B-C corrective. If you look at hourly charts you can see "A" leg of this corrective lasted for ~130 points ( from 10987 to 10860 yesterday) and "C" today  leg also consumed "130" points as well ( high of 10940 in morning to 10810 low it touched around 3PM). Of course we can see some more weakness from here but I wont be surprised if Nifty takes a sharp U turn from these levels ( there is a strong possibility of same).

Apart from the corrective nature of the fall there are other indicators like RSI which are giving strong positive divergence and in the current scenario (in our opinion) we do not see much room for Nifty to go down from here. We had mentioned yesterday that  as long as 10840 level is held there is a chance of markets giving one more push on the upside. Please keep in mind that support levels are important but the way they are broken or taken out matters a lot. Nifty may have broken out 10840 today but fall was not at all convincing especially the last hour fall looked like an "after thought". We need to see more weakness from here below 10800 -10750 levels to convince ourselves that its actually the beginning of a fresh bear trend.

In nutshell, for now, todays fall is just part of the same consolidation or choppiness which is going on since last so many days and it will be premature to conclude that market have broken free and a new trend has started down. Need more weakness/fall from here ( that too with momentum and force) to conclude the same.

Trading Recommendations: Markets are being deceptive and will continue to remain so for some more time. This is a difficult period for trading and traders who try to trade on both sides( bull one day and bear next day) are likely to lose a lot. If someone is holding Shorts he should book profits at these levels and longs can still be held keeping 10750 as SL.

Thanks & Happy Trading!!

Nifty View: Update for 23rd Jan 2019

Near Term Trend: ↔ (sideways with a positive bias)

Market update: Nifty traded again in the familiar range of 10930 -10850 for entire day. It dropped to 10860 levels after opening at 10930 levels but support came at lower levels and it finally closed at 10920 levels down 40 points.

For traders this range bound movement is becoming very frustrating and those who buy calls/puts are losing big time (doesn't matter whether you are buying call or puts) because of time decay premiums are falling rapidly. 25 days are gone by and Nifty is still trading around 10900.

Yesterday it looked like as if nifty has broken rage and finally moved on but market had other ideas and has clearly shown that it will take some more time before it decides to break free. However markets cannot continue like this in a tight range and sooner or later they will break free.

Overall market remains choppy and range bound. There is no change in our overall views and we still feel markets remains in a downtrend but as long as 10840 support is not breached we can see higher levels from here in short term. If 10840 is taken out then there is a possibility of markets testing 10700 level again. Even though the breakout yesterday didn't sustain that doesn't mean downtrend has started. We need to see more weakness to conclude that.

Weak Asian markets/global cues and falling INR/USD is weighing strongly on the markets also the market breadth was again negative today (2:3 in favor of declines) but PCR remains strong at 1.3 suggesting some support in near term.

Market remain treacherous and deceptive and like I said yesterday if you try to do too many trades in the current scenario then the chances you are going to lose. What we are witnessing is a classic corrective complex corrective which precedes any big trend in the market. This is markets way to shake traders confidence. One is bound to lose if hes continuously trading in/out anticipating a breakout on both sides. When the time comes and actual trend begins most traders would have already suffered enough losses in this range bound  market and would be scared of taking a position.

 If your capital is small then you must sit out and wait for clear trend to begin and trade only once this consolidation is over. Still if you wish to trade then best way to trade such markets is to trade in the direction of near term trend without worrying about intraday swings (don't change your stand basis intraday choppiness). Keep a tight stop loss/ target and keep holding position till either SL hits or target is achieved.

Trading Recommendations: Like I mentioned above if your capital is small then sit out till the time this consolidation is over and a clear trend emerges having said that, as per our view markets can still see higher levels from here so that is a real possibility even now. If you wish to subscribe to our live whatsapp Nifty trading updates/trading recommendation during market hours then you may subscribe using below link:

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 Good Day and Good Trading to You!
 

Nifty View: Update for 22nd Jan 2019

Near Term Trend: ↔ (sideways with a positive bias)

Market update: Nifty again opened flat today around 10900 and threatened to trade in the same familiar range of 10930-10850 for some time however a sharp rise after 30 mins of trading propelled  Nifty to 10950-10980 levels and opened a new range. It finally closed up 60 points around 10960 levels.

I have been mentioning since last few days that 10930 doesn't seem to be the top and one more leg up is pending in Nifty.To quote couple of my previous posts:-

Mentioned in our Friday post  (for 21st Jan)
"This grinding which we are witnessing around 10900 is not symptomatic of top formation. Not suggesting that Nifty cant fall from here off course it can but the congestion we are witnessing around 10900 is suggesting a probability of a throw up or one more leg up." link: http://niftywaveindia.blogspot.com/2019/01/nifty-view-update-for-21st-jan-2019.html

Mentioned in our Thursday post  (for 18th Jan)
" So there is a possibility of speculative shorting which is happening around 10900 levels. If some one is bearish then it makes sense to short Nifty at 10900-10920 with a stop loss of 10950 its a simple and easy trade isn't it? however markets are never that simple so I continue to believe one more leg on the upside is pending"

"Another important point to note is that yesterday Nifty broke above it recent high of 10850, today it broke above its previous swing high of 10924 (even though intraday and for a very very short time) now next high of nifty is placed at 10985 levels so there is every possibility of Nifty testing and crossing the same." link:  http://niftywaveindia.blogspot.com/2019/01/nifty-view-update-for-18th-jan-2019.html 

Anyways the sole point is that  Nifty had been  giving  indication since last many days that its not yet ready to fall (yet). That's the reason we covered our short position at 10700 levels and since then Nifty has gone up by 260+ points. Going forward even though Nifty is not running away its not breaking down either. Today it might have failed to cross its previous swing high of 10985 but Sensex did cross the same level and even gave a closing above the same so ideally Nifty should do the same too.

So in nutshell even though the risk on the downside still remains, I wont be surprised if we see higher levels from here but doesn't mean that one can go long at any point. Market remains tricky and one need to properly plan and manage his trade with a strict stop loss.

Technically speaking, we are in G leg of overall diametric and a clear trend is only likely to emerge once the whole pattern is complete ( you may refer to my previous post for the wave counts). Till then markets will be deceptive and one needs to be extremely careful while trading in/out.


Trading recommendation: For anyone short in the market ( though its not recommended) the obvious SL is 11K levels and long positions one can keep a SL of 10900. We have taken some trading position in last couple of days if you wish to subscribe to our live whatsapp Nifty trading updates/trading recommendation during market hours then you may subscribe using below link:

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 Good Day and Good Trading to You!

Nifty View: Update for 21st Jan 2019

Near Term Trend: ↔ (sideways with a positive bias)

Market update: Nifty opened flat inspite of the fact that all Asian markets were substantially up and even though SGX nifty was pointing to a higher open around 10950 levels. It turned weak during initial hours and threatened to go breakdown for a bit but eventually it recovered and closed flat.

Even though Nifty didn't give a crossover over 10925 the fact that it didn't break down below 10840 is a positive sign for the bulls ( same thing I mentioned yesterday too). In the morning the way market started moving down after opening  created an impression  as if nifty had started a new leg down however fall was soon arrested and Bulls pushed the nifty back to 10900 levels.

Usually when markets make a top the fall which follows is pretty sharp and markets don't hang around the top area for too long. This grinding which we are witnessing around 10900 is not symptomatic of top formation. Not suggesting that Nifty cant fall from here off course it can but the congestion we are witnessing around 10900 is suggesting a probability of a throw up or one more leg up.

Technically speaking, markets are making a diametric which probably is in its last let. Under normal conditions the G leg could extend for 7-10 days ( today was 4th day). I also mentioned yesterday that when some support/resistance becomes too obvious then it usually is taken out by a gap up or gap down opening so watch out for any gap up if happens during next week (it might trigger a short squeeze).

Globally, Dow had a very major resistance at 24K levels (S&P 2600) which was taken out yesterday. Nifty didn't fall when Dow was falling down so one may argue that Nifty wont go up when dow is going up which makes sense too. However this correlation ( or lack of) between Dow and Nifty cannot continue for long.

Another important thing to notice is the market breadth. It was totally tilted in the favour of sellers today (advance: decline-16:34).  Inner structure of market remains weak hence any trade must be properly planned and should only be taken with a proper SL. Over all structure of the market remains weak but near term is suggesting an upside.

Trading Recommendation: Dont suggest going short at this stage, and if some one is long he can continue with a SL of 10840. Rest depends on how market behaves during trading hours. If you wish to subscribe our live Nifty trading calls/ updates during market hours then pls use below link:

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Nifty View: Update for 18th Jan 2019

Near Term Trend: ↔ (sideways with a positive bias)

Market update: Nifty opened around 10925 levels however once again failed to break it and even dragged below 10850 before a bout of late buying pushed the index back to 10900 levels. it closed 15 points up at 10905.

I have lost the number of count 10925 level has been tested and markets failed to crossed it. Today there was a strong possibility that same would be crossed however once again markets failed to do so. Point to note is that all fall from 10900 levels are carrying the characteristics of a corrective fall and they are short lived and are getting retraced in faster time. So there is a possibility of speculative shorting which is happening around 10900 levels. If some one is bearish then it makes sense to short Nifty at 10900-10920 with a stop loss of 10950 its a simple and easy trade isn't it? however markets are never that simple so I continue to believe one more leg on the upside is pending.

On intraday chart nifty today made a 'hanging man' or ' hammer' pattern which signifies strength above 10930 and weakness below 10840 levels. when any support or resistance becomes too obvious then usually those are taken out by a gap up or gap down opening. So wont be surprised if we see that soon. On the downside if we see a follow up selling below 10850 then that would put serious question marks on the current leg of rally and the probability of Nifty going up from here.

Another important point to note is that yesterday Nifty broke above it recent high of 10850, today it broke above its previous swing high of 10924 (even though intraday and for a very very short time) now next high of nifty is placed at 10985 levels so there is every possibility of Nifty testing and crossing the same. I was hoping for 10980 levels to be tested atleast today however markets had different idea and it didn't materialize.

Technically speaking, no change in wave counts ( please see my previous post for the wave counts). I believe G leg  is still in progress and can see further upsides from here but things will change if 10840 is taken out now.

Trading recommendation: No change in position, same as yesterday. We are still carrying our longs and if someone is long he can continue with a SL of 10840.

Imp thing: After tomorrow, we will not be posting our trading details and trading recommendations ( entry exit points) here as we are turning paid and our trade recommendations will exclusively be reserved for our paid subscribers ( will continue to post my general market view though). In case you wish to join us pls follow below link ( subscription fee is kept as bare minimum as an introductory offer)

https://niftywaveindia.blogspot.com/2019/01/join-us-on-whatsapp-how-to-subscribe.html

 Thanks & Happy Trading to you!    

Nifty View: Update for 17th Jan 2019

Near Term Trend: ↔ (sideways with a positive bias)

Market update: Nifty opened slightly positive above 10900 levels but could not sustain above it. Whole day it traded in a narrow range between 10880-10925 and closed almost flat.

As per our views ( and like we have been saying since last few days) there is every likelihood or possibility for one more leg up in Nifty. We have seen too much congestion at 10900 range and it needs to be shaken up before market can resume its main trend. After a solid run of 150+ points yesterday the consolidation around 10900 level is a welcome sign for bulls. Even though Nifty didn't break above 10925 it didn't break down either.

I am not suggesting that worst is behind us and everyone should start buying and building portfolio. No, not at all. Overall there is no change in main trend of Nifty and its just that for a near term perspective there is a possibility of Nifty moving up.That is the reason we exited shorts @10700 and gone long above 10800 levels. Lot of people asking me we were selling Nifty earlier when it  was around 10900 and now we are buying. Well that's market for you, we will always do what charts tell us to do (off course we can be wrong at times) but as a positional trader we have to buy when there is a possibility of a move up and sell when there is a possibility of a down move, levels be damned.

I am not sure of up side targets but levels above 11K are a possibility even 11200-11300 can be seen. It will be difficult for nifty to go any higher than that but it can definitely go, no one should doubt it. It has not been an easy market to trade since last 2 months and I don't think it will be any easier to trade it in near term. You need lot of conviction and discipline to trade the present structure which is shaping up in Nifty.Falling INR/USD and  fragile global markets continues to pose a threat to Bulls.

Nifty Intraday chart

Now coming back to technical, there is no change in my view. Nifty is still making a diametric pattern in a diamond shape however only change I am anticipating now is that its not going to be a 'G' failure and probably G leg is going to go post a new high. I was expecting G leg to finish around 10925 earlier but it seems F leg got subdivided so the pattern still continues ( extension and subdivision are very much possible in a diametric). Please note Nifty can  terminate G leg below 10985 levels itself or even go as far as 11300 levels ( In my opinion second scenario is most likely but you never know).

Trading recommendation: No change in trading position, same as yesterday. Still holding our longs. Don't recommend going short at current levels and one should wait a little bit if he wants to short Nifty however if one is already short then he should exit at CMP or keep a tight SL of 10990 levels.If you have a small risk appetite and trading basis just your gut feel then you should sit out for some time and wait for picture to become clear first. When we initiate a trade we ensure trade is properly managed and we keep updating all our subscribers at every stage during trading hours as to what needs to be done. 

Imp thing: After Friday (18th jan), we will not be posting our trading details and trading recommendations ( entry exit points) here as we are turning paid and our trade recommendations will exclusively be reserved for our paid subscribers ( will continue to post my general market view though). In case you wish to join us pls follow below link ( subscription fee is kept as bare minimum as an introductory offer)

https://niftywaveindia.blogspot.com/2019/01/join-us-on-whatsapp-how-to-subscribe.html

 Thanks & Happy Trading to you!