Nifty View: Update for 27th Dec 2018

Near Term Trend:  ↓ (Down)

Market Update: Nifty opened with a gap down of 50 points and crashed to 10540 levels ( down 125 points) and made a sharp recover later to close around 10730 levels ( up 70 points).

As soon as Nifty fell below 10575 levels it went in an oversold zone on the short term basis. There was a likelihood of an Intraday bounce today hence we covered our shorts around 10546 levels ( initiated at 10858 levels last week).

Todays bounce can be termed as a technical bounce. Market was heavily oversold so short covering coupled with value buying lifted the markets. Todays bounce doesn't mean that Nifty is done with the down move as of now. We need to see further strength in Nifty to confirm that. For now our assumption is that its a corrective bounce and surely market can move up another 100-150 points form here but the downtrend should resume again once this corrective move is done. Off course everything will change if Nifty start showing strength in which case we will be forced to change our view. So we need to carefully observe how Nifty movement is shaping going forward and accordingly we will plan our next strategy. Overall today was a good day for our followers as we ended up making a profit of 300+ points in Nifty.

Trading recommendations. We exited shorts initiated at 10858 around 10546 today making  a profit of around 310 Nifty points. Second trade (short) initiated @ 10684 on Friday is still open. for now current strategy is to hold on the balance shorts. If some one is long in market then use this bounce to exit your position.





 

Nifty Trade Update - 26th Dec

Update 09:43 AM:  Nifty CMP  10558 - Cover 50% of shorts initiated in Trade-1 @ 10858  ( hold balance short 50% of Trade-1 and 100% of trade-2. Will keep updating whenever anything needs to be done)


Update 10:15AM: Nifty CMP 10535  - Cover balance 50% of shorts initiated in Trade-1 @ 10858. Trade-1 closed. Carry Trade-2

Trade-1 covered @ avg price of 10546. Trade 2 is open.

Update 12:30PM: Nifty CMP 10600- Nothing to be done as of now. Hold shorts as told. 

Update 03:25PM: Nifty CMP 10740- Nothing to be done as of now. Hold shorts as told

Nifty is witnessing short covering +value buying from oversold zone that's the reason we booked part profit almost at day low.
  

Technical Learning:Extracting Triangles

Extracting Triangle: Extracting triangles are very important pattern, they do not occur very frequently and even the price action which follows once the pattern is complete is not very sharp.
Like all triangles they too have 5 legs can be found in both Bullish and Bearish markets.



Extracting Triangles

Important characteristics

As the name suggests, extracting triangle 'extracts' the power of bulls and bears ( depending on what type of triangle it is). This pattern causes 'fatigue' among players and is a 'tiring' pattern. In case of Bearish pattern as you can see Bulls are trying to take market higher but are failing with each attempt. Each direction leg ( i.e up leg) is getting smaller and smaller meaning Bulls are losing their strength, however each falling leg is getting bigger meaning Bears are getting stronger. Once the E leg is done and inspite of all their efforts Bulls realizes that they have failed to take market to new highs, they give up and that's when Bears take over and market goes for a downtrend which can be quite extended at times. Bullish triangles works just the opposite of what we  just discussed. Here Bears keep getting weaker and Bulls keep getting stronger and after E leg is done you see a fresh uptrend


 

Nifty View: Update for 26th Dec 2018

Near Term Trend:  ↓ (Down)

Market Update: Nifty opened slightly in positive territory around 10770 levels but couldn't keep up with selling pressure and succumbed to sub 10700 levels even touched 10650 levels before closing at 10663 (down 80 points). This is the third consecutive day for Nifty where it has posted a lower low and a lower high. Continuous trading below yesterdays day low and the way 10700 has been breached shows that markets trend has now changed to Down. I had mentioned in my previous post that if Nifty start trading below 10700 then all overall trend of market will be change do down and all longs should be exited.

We had initiated shorts around 10860 levels on Friday and have added more shorts today around 10685 levels in second trade. Both trades are still open and will be maintained with a trailing SL

Coming back to Nifty, like we have been saying that entire move from 10K to 10750 is looking like a corrective move. And thing about corrective moves is they end without a warning and when they do its not a pleasant sight for those who believed it to be a trending move.

Overall probably Nifty has taken a U turn now and the corrective move which I have been projecting as a '7 legged diametric' is over and what we are seeing now is a new impulse downward ( Wave-1 of new impulse). we need more evidence and need to observe market carefully for next few days to see if its indeed a new impulsive move which has started downwards. For now Nifty has reacted exactly from where we predicted G wave to end so currently we assume that its over and impulse has begun( unless proven otherwise by market).

There was lot of resilience being shown by Nifty in last few weeks where it was just shrugging off the losses in US markets and was simply marching on. However such Inter market divergence cannot continue for long ( it can last for months though) and sooner or later all market aligns to each other. Going forward we might see Dow recovering and adding on few points( as technically it appears oversold) but Nifty struggling to do that.

Trading recommendation: 2 trades open on short side. 10858 on Friday and 10684 today. Don't leverage excessively short term bounce can come anytime causing panic and wiping out your profits. For now just hold on to your shorts. If someone is long then its time to exit.

Wish you a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!

Important :Dos & Donts.

Incase you find this blog and the analysis useful & decide to subscribe to our services then please take a note of the below points before you start acting on our recommendations. 
 

Terms & Conditions

 Dos & Donts -Must follow

• We can only suggest/advise. Decision to act upon it is entirely yours. Once initiated, the trade is yours and you own it. We cannot be held accountable for any losses you might suffer. All profit and losses are entirely yours.
  
• We assume your risk is properly managed at all time and you don’t leverage excessively. 
• Your trade is personal (consider it like your salary slip or ATM PIN). Details like what have you bought/how much quantity/what price,  never disclose it to anyone (including us). Its your personal data keep it with you only
• Don't get carried away after seeing 2-3 favorable trades and start leveraging/trading big. Usually that is the time to be cautious. We cannot be right all the times and after a string a right trades its highly likely that next couple of trades will be a wrong so be cautious and preserve your capital.
• Trading is a disciplined (but at the same time fun) game. If each time you open a trade, the thought of 100-150 point loss is causing you to panic & lose your sleep then you are not trading but playing 'satta'. Our recommendations are not for 'satta' players. If you are one of those then you are at a wrong place. Please do not approach us we cant help.
  
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Dos & Donts -Good to follow

 

We only advise when to buy/sell. What to buy/sell is upto you. FYI- we never recommend buying out of the money call and puts ( doesn’t matter how bearish and bullish we are) we generally recommend the following-
• Call & put writing ( i.e. when we give buy signal you may write/sell PUTS and similarly when we give sell signals you may write/sell CALLS)
• Trading nifty futures with call/put writing ( i.e, When we give buy signal you buy Nifty future + sell call similarly when there is a sell signal you sell Nifty + sell Put). You hedge your position while initiating trade
• Trading Nifty future without hedging i.e, naked trade
First option is least risky and will give you small profits and losses . 3rd option is most risky and obviously the losses and profits will be bigger in comparison.
• We measure our performance using 3rd option always.
  

Contact Us

For any  feedback ( negative or positive) or in case of any query feel free to write to us @ rahulrtn412@yahoo.com or whatsapp# 9319321906

 

Nifty Trade Update - 24th Dec

Update 10:07 AM:  Nifty CMP  10715 - Hold short positions


Nifty continues to be weak. Hold short positions as advised earlier, nothing is required to be done as of now

Update 2:30PM  Nifty CMP  10690 - Hold short positions

Nifty continues to be weak and showing good momentum on the downside. hold on to existing short positions ( we might even initiate more shorts soon). But pls don't get carried away and leverage, keep your risks managed at all time


Update 2:45PM  Nifty CMP  10684 - Sell ( Initiate shorts)
We have Trade-1 short open @ 10858. More shorts can be added around CMP

Nifty View: Update for 24th Dec 2018

Near Term Trend:  ↔️ (Sideways/with a strong negative bias)


Market Update: Nifty opened slightly positive around 10950 shrugging one more overnight carnage in US stock but today was different. Nifty couldn't display the strong character its been putting up since last few days and crashed 200 points to close around 10750 levels. I did mention in my post yesterday that we should not read too much in Nifty outperformance and sooner or later both indices ( US and India) will line up.

I have been expecting this move since last  2-3 days and have been saying that markets seems to have matured and there is a strong likelihood of down move from these levels. I marked the move from 10k as diametric pattern which is in its last leg (G). G might have completed both time wise and pricewise yesterday. We went short yesterday expecting a move like today but it didn't materialize so we exited however we entered shorts today again around 10860 levels ( you may want to refer to 'Nifty real time trades' page for details). Idea was to enter below yesterdays low ( 10890) level however the fall was steep so we got a lower entry point around 10860 only. But when you are doing positional trading 10-20 points shouldn't matter to you.

Having said all this can we say that near term trend for Nifty has now changed to down? Answer is No, not yet. That's the reason I am still showing the 'Near term trend' as sideways. There is a strong probability of Nifty changing the trend to 'down' from here but so far it hasn't changed. Not even after 200 point fall today. See in last 8 days Nifty has had just one bad day and one bad day cannot dictate the course of market for short term. Nifty can be in super bullish trend and yet it can fall 200 points and recover. Similarly one day of 200+ move in bearish trend doesn't mean trend has changed now.

So our overall stand remain same for now. We have been saying that there is a likelihood of a reversal from these levels and Nifty today has taken one step towards confirming that. It has very good support at 10700-750 zone. Continuous fall below this level with momentum will give us the confirmation we are waiting for.

Some are asking why we exited  shorts yesterday even though the SL was not triggered? Please note that Nifty trend had not yet turned negative yesterday, so holding on to shorts  required a strong negative momentum which we didn't have so we exited. Today we have it so we are carrying. Doesn't matter if we lose 70-80 points in the process. In the long run this rule will help you cut your losses.

Food for thought- If my chart reading and wave counts are correct then we are looking at a very steep fall and when I say steep I mean every likelihood of Nifty breaking 10340 in next 3-4 days ( not exaggerating).


Trading recommendation: Entered shorts around 10860 levels today and carrying. Will short more once I get secondary confirmation till then just hold on to your existing shorts. If some one is long then pls exit once Nifty start trading below 10700 consistently.

Have a nice weekend! Enjoy and take care.