Medium Term Trend: 👇Down (Changes to up above 15200)
Nifty @ 14507 Up 185 points : Back above 14500!
Market continued with its tradition of zig-zag moves and after falling for 2 days, it once again moved in positive direction and almost recovered 300 points from Thursdays ( expiry day low). This confirms our theory that market is not in a downtrend but in a sideway trend only (with negative bias ofcourse ). We had mentioned this possibility in early March itself and had confirmed at that time this consolidation can continue for some more time ( entire March possibly). Thats what we have seen and market is moving in a non trending move since last 4-5 weeks.
In last post we had discussed that- "if we continue to see weakness below 14550-30 tomorrow then we can fall a little more towards 14300" - Well thats exactly we saw on expiry day insnt it? Market crashed to 14300 and broke it momentarily but close just above it & then on next day (Friday) once again moved back above 14500 level & once again our analysis proved to be correct.
Now lets see what to expect next. Market continues to be in a sideways trend but is also likely that ths correction is possibly approaching maturity now. On the upside 14630-650 level will offer stiff resistance to Nifty and if Nifty can successfully sustains above it for 1-2 trading sessions then it can test 15200 levels ( which in turn would be a very strong signal that this sideways movement is ending). On the downside we have good support at 14300 levels and our analysis will change only if we see consecutive close below this level.
Looking at SGX Nifty, its likely that we open positive around 14630-650 levels only hence it becomes interesting and at the time simple too. Nifty has to hold on to opening high and then trade above it for 1-2 trading session. Failure to do it can bring a sell-off once again and Nifty can dip once again. But holding it can encourage bulls and Nifty can target 15000 -15200 levels once again. Trade accordingly.
Happy Holi & Happy Trading!
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