Nifty Analysis Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Nifty Trend for 27th Dec 2021

 

Medium Term Trend:👇 (Downswing maturing)

Nifty @ 17003 - Nifty Finishing 10 day Downcycle and Managing close above 17000

In the last update, I had mentioned that "it remains to be seen if Nifty manages to move back above 16800-17K levels. Chances are that price wise correction seems to have completed and what we are seeing is just an exaggerated move on the downside which could reverse in a similar fashion in coming trading sessions (when I say reverse I mean move back above 17K levels and not necessarily above 18500 levels).

So after 3 consecutive close just below 17000 levels, Nifty has managed to make a move above 17K levels again and more importantly the weekly close has also come above it which is positive indeed. Another important thing to note is that the lows of Monday were protected and not tested again which suggests that fall witnessed on Monday was just an exaggerated fall or an excess move or a false break on the downside (now that market has moved back above 17K levels).

16900-17K levels was a good support and if the market was actually planning an extended bearish move then ideally it should not have been tested again (let alone mkts trading above it).

We had also highlighted how market is following a 9-10 day cycle of up-moves and down-moves since last 2 months & looking at the charts it seems either the last down-move finished in just 6 days (Monday) or in a irregular move in 10 days (today). In both scenario it seems either markets have already opened a new leg on the upside or it will open the same on Monday.

Overall market still seems to be in Bear trajectory but its hanging just by a thread and can breakout any time. Time is running out for Bears and if they fail to act in next 1-2 trading sessions then its likely that Bulls can once again start controlling the markets.

We may or may not see a runaway rally (as I had pointed out in the last update as well) but even if its a sideway move from here, it will be a sideway move with a positive bias ( where markets slowly but surely be moving up).

Happy Trading!

Nifty Analysis Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Nifty Trend for 21st Dec 2021

 

Medium Term Trend:👇 Down

Nifty @ 16614 - Blood Bath after Black Friday

In the last update, when Nifty was around 18K levels I had mentioned that.." fall towards 17500/600 (or even a bit lower towards 17K) is very much possible in the current wave".   Nifty tested 17K levels in Nov end and attempted a recovery and moved towards 17500 levels but could not sustain above it and in a matter of 4-5 days has fallen >1000 points towards 16500 levels.

I had also mentioned that I am not expecting any major sustainable fall below 17K levels (based on time cycle study) however today market has convincingly broken below 17K levels which might change things a little bit going forward. Having said this its just one day and it remains to be seen if Nifty manages to move back above 16800-17K levels. Chances are that price wise correction seems to have completed and what we are seeing is just an exaggerated move on the downside which could reverse in a similar fashion in coming trading sessions but one must not try to do bottom fishing and and from trading perspective it make sense to not indulge in long trades for time being ( when I say reverse I mean move back above 17K levels and not necessarily above 18500 levels)

Nifty Daily

In the daily chart above it can be seen that Nifty is following a 9-10 days cycle for each up and down leg. Entire downmove from 18500 level can be read as 5 legged ABCDE and we seem to be in E leg which is in 6th day of fall. Going by the current cycle its likely to continue for another 3-4 trading sessions and after that we might see some sort of recovery. 

Important thing is that since the fall has taken 5 legs , markets may not move back above 18K levels in a hurry and can instead go in for another sideways/corrective mode (preferably between 17K and 18K levels) which might last for another 8-10 weeks. If the fall was a 3 legged fall and markets had made the bottom in Nov end towards 16900 levels then we could have expected a new high soon but now things might get delayed. Overall view remains bullish but it remains to be seen if we see a lot more sideways trading between 17-18K levels for next couple of months.

Similar situations had played out in 2019 too ( see below chart) after a severe fall markets went into a long sideways consolidation. It remains to be seen if same scenario is repeated in 2021-22 as well. 

Nifty Daily (Sep19-Mar20)

There is a strong probability of one thing though, after next 3-4 trading sessions we may not see such exaggerated moves on the downside anymore and that could be the end of this downcycle. It may or may not move towards new highs but its not likely to break down further from current lows.

Happy Trading!!

Nifty Analysis Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Nifty Trend for 17th Nov 2021

 

Medium Term Trend: 👈👉 Sideways (with Negative Bias)

Nifty @ 18000 - Sideways Trend /Negative Bias continues

Due to personal reasons and time constraints couldn't update the blog for last few months so apologies however going forward will try to update blog once a week atleast.

Market has been in a sideways trend for last few weeks and many traders are on the bullish side expecting markets to break above 19K and similarly there are many traders who feel market has seen a decent rally and is due for a healthy correction which could take Nifty to 16K levels. Market has been disappointing both sides and just trading in a narrow band between 18500-17500. Options premium (on both sides) are seeing time decay and buyers (calls as well puts) are bleeding slowly.

Now many feel market has been in sideways to negative trend for last couple of weeks however as per my analysis it seems markets are in sideways trend since Sep 25/26 ( since it hit a high of 17980 levels). Now even though market hit a new of 18500 after that, it still was part of consolidation only. Charts are indicating that market reached some sort of 'maturity' zone near around 18000 in Sep end itself. This flat trading and sharp whipsaws we are witnessing since then are part of this consolidation only.

Nifty Daily chart

In the chart above can be seen that markets were at 18K levels on Sep 26 and even today markets are at same level. Also from 18500/18600 levels we saw a fall which lasted for ~9 days and brought Nifty to around 17600 levels ( ~ 1000 point fall). Now in last 10 days we have corrected the same by ~61.8% price wise which is raising the possibility of one more fall towards 17600 levels (or lower) in the days to come.

Good thing is ~7 weeks have already passed and markets are still trading near 18K only which rules out the chances of any major crash from here ( if any major crash had to come then it would have come by now) however it does not mean we cant fall a little more from here. A fall towards 17500/600 (or even a bit lower towards 17K) is very much possible in the current wave.

Historically speaking, we have seen markets spending 7-10 weeks in similar conditions undergoing consolidation & now that we have already spent ~7 weeks already then it is possible that we are nearing the end of this sideways consolidation. Having said this, like we mentioned above , its also possible that one final leg on the downside is pending & it could be sharper than what we have seen till now ( just to frustrate/scare away remaining buyers) and takes mkt towards/below 17500 levels.

Thats the view for now, if there is any change then will post the update in coming days.

Happy Trading!

Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Trend for 26th July 2021

Medium Term Trend: ☝ UP (Changes to down below 15400)

 Nifty @ 15920 - Breakout is likely round the corner.

In previous post we had mentioned that the way Nifty has crawled above 15900 levels ( intraday and not with a strong thrust or gapup), there is a chance that this breakout proves to be a false one and Nifty once again drops in the sideways range. Thats exactly how its played out and next three days Nifty was back at 15600 levels. However in one of the older post ( for 13th July) we had also mentioned that-

"From a bullish standpoint, that will be an ideal scenario. Market goes down below 15650, traps bears and then make a sharp move back towards 15800-15900"

 From what we have seen during last couple of trading sessions, I wonder if the above scenario is beginning to unfold now. In a way what we were expecting then is probably happening now. For a bullish move to begin its important that weak long hands are thrown out and probably thats what market achieved when it made a sharp dip below 15600 levels on Tuesday and equally sharp recovery is also indicating that now market has made up its mind to move beyond 15900. We had also posted one Nifty intraday chart few days back suggesting that correction probably got over as 5 legged ABCDE triangle however that too warrants a change now since its proven that breakout was a false breakout. Below is the updated count. 

Nifty Daily

As per updated count the correction is folding as a complex corrective ABC-X-ABC (where in first corrective pattern was regular zigzag and second was irregular). Now the thing about complex corrective is that they can develop as triple three correctives as well .Chances of a triple three are less though but in case even now Nifty fails to move decisively above 15900 then that could mean ABC-X-ABC-X-ABC is undergoing which means markets could continue to trade sideways for atleast 2 more weeks. But like I said earlier, chances are less and its likely that we are very near to a decisive breakout. The fact that weekly closing has come below15900 is infact a good sign for bulls. From a bullish standpoint it will be great if this level gets broken with a sharp thrust/gapup next week.

In Nutshell, it appears as if Nifty is close to giving a decisive breakout above 15900 in next week and watch out for a strong trading session early next week. Having said this, if we see continue to see lackluster move next week too then its likely that 3rd leg of corrective start developing and we spend 2 more weeks in this range but this is our least preferred scenario for now and we expect markets to make a decisive move on the upside soon and we advise traders to hold on to their long positions (with proper SL ofcourse).

Happy Trading!

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Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Trend for 19th July 2021

 

Medium Term Trend: ☝ UP (Changes to down below 15400)

 Nifty @ 15920 - Much awaited breakout ??

In previous update we had posted a daily Nifty chart and had mentioned that its possible that some sort of bottom is done around 15650 levels and we see Nifty moving above 15900 in next 3-4 trading sessions. Nifty did exactly that and we have had a weekly close above 15900 now. Intraday Nifty even hit a high of 15950+ levels.

Having said this, since the breakout has come intraday (in a slow manner) and not with a strong gap-up, there is a chance that this breakout proves to be a false one and fizzle out in next few days and Nifty drops in the range ( 15500-15900) once again. One need to keep a close watch at 15850-15900 zone, this area has been broken out after much effort and a long time so ideally Nifty should now trade above it and move higher. In case Nifty start trading below it ( today it threatened to do so for some time but then bounced back)  then that will not be a very positive sign.

So will keep it short for today, in summary, though Nifty has moved above 15900, the manner in which it has moved is not inspiring much confidence. To confirm its bullish stance Nifty needs to move strongly above 15900. If Nifty fails to do that and bears manage to drag it below 15850 once again then its likely that breakout we saw yesterday/today was not actually a breakout but a mere expansion of the sideways range. Next week is a truncated week ( just 4 days of trading) and probably will confirm if its an actual breakout or just a false one. Till then be cautious and dont be greedy. 

Happy Trading!

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Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Trend for 14th July 2021

 

Medium Term Trend: ☝ UP (Changes to down below 15400)

 Nifty @ 15810 - Sideways trend ending soon?

One quick update from yesterday, In previous post we  had mentioned :

"From a bullish standpoint, that will be an ideal scenario. Market goes down below 15650, traps bears and then make a sharp move back towards 15800-15900 (just one of many scenarios which can play out)" 

Looking at how market traded today, the probability of the above scenario unfolding is looking weak now. Its possible that market has made some sort of base/completed short term correction  yesterday at 15650. lets look at the chart below to understand.

Nifty Daily

 Since 14th June (the day this sideways correction started) market has spent around 4-5 days going up and then 4 days going down , yesterday market finished 3rd day of down-move and today was the fourth day and market has finished in positive territory so its possible that the last down-move finished in just 3 trading sessions. Nifty's inability to break below 15650 today could be pointing towards another up-move which should last for next 4-5 days atleast and take Nifty above 15900. Also the entire move since 14th Jun is looking like a contracting triangle (which finished yesterday at 15650). If this pattern reading is true then market can post some strong gains in coming days.

In case Nifty fails to take out 15900 conclusively in next 3 trading then its possible that correction continues still and pattern is developing into something else ( and not 5 legged triangle).

Happy Trading!

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Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Trend for 13th July 2021

 

Medium Term Trend: ☝ UP (Changes to down below 15400)

 Nifty @ 15700 - Sideways trade continues (Support at 15650 resistance at 15900)

The game of sideways trade continues and market continues to frustrate traders. Market is stuck in a very small range and traders are getting restless now. However traders should understand that sideways trades are as much part of the market as upswings and downswings are and its totally fine and normal and infact healthy for markets to trade sideways.

Also, market cannot and will not remain in such a limbo forever and sooner or later it will break out ( or break down). Instead of wasting ones capital and energy on such sideways/nothing trade, one should rather sit out and wait for right time to enter. But most traders lose lot of capital in these sideways trade (usually option buyers) and the when the actual breakout happens, they have very little capital and energy left to make a fresh trade.

Now like 15900, this level of 15650 has been tested too many times and its likely that market breaks it and drop down further towards 15500 levels in next couple of trading sessions. When markets stuck in tight range its not unusual to see a false break out first. Now I am not saying that market is going to give a false breakdown below 15650 but its possible. Incase market goes down below 15650 then one needs to observe if its sustaining below it. Below 15650 next support is at 15500-550 levels and only when market start trading below 15500 can we conclude that actual breakdown has taken place otherwise it could just be a bear trap.

From a bullish standpoint, that will be an ideal scenario. Market goes down below 15650, traps bears and then make a sharp move back towards 15800-15900 (just one of many scenarios which can play out). Will have to see how market plays in next few trading session. A break below 15500 in next 1-2 trading sessions could inflict a bigger damage on the charts but till that happens, I continue to believe that markets are likely to head higher eventually (whenever this correction gets over).

Happy Trading!

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Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Trend for 7th July 2021

 

Medium Term Trend: ☝ UP (Changes to down below 15400)

 Nifty @ 15820 - Facing stiff resistance at 15900

Now its been more than 20 trading sessions that Nifty has failed to close above 15900. Every time market touches 15900 we see some kind of sell-off which again take nifty down however nifty is not falling much either and its just stuck in a range of 15900-15600.

Now everyone knows that the obvious trade is to sell Nifty at 15900 and buy at 15600. The thing about obvious trade is that when everyone knows about them ( hence obvious) then they seldom works. Market cannot trade in such a narrow range for long and sooner or later it has to break it and as per our analysis the chances of market breaking on the upside is much much higher.  We have seen such scenario playing out multiple times in the past and whenever resistance is a fixed point ( like 15900 in this case) markets have broken above it. Its possible that we spend some more time in this range but eventually market is going to break it.

In such cases, many times, the breakout takes place with a gapup (or gapdown in case of breakdown) opening. Market wouldnt want traders to buy when it finally decides to make a move above 15900 levels so its a possibility that market opens above 15900 with a strong gapup some day. Fall from 15900 intraday today therefore is not a surprise and probably thats not how market is planning to take this level down.

On the downside we have seen 15600-650 is a strong support for now and below that 15450 levels. Its looking unlikely for now that market will break these levels in immediate future.

In Nutshell, trading in a range is possible for a few more days but eventually market is expected to break above 15900 and head higher. This level of 15900 is tested too many times and now has to break, we will be really surprised if markets make some kind of important top around this zone. If the breakout happens with  a gapup then it will indicate that markets are very strong. On the other hand if the breakout is slow and happens intraday then we need to be watchful for it could be a bull trap in the making.

Happy Trading!

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Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Trend for Next Week (28 Jun-02nd Jul 2021)

 

Medium Term Trend: ☝ UP (Changes to down below 15400)

 Nifty @ 15860 - Market Resumes Uptrend

Last week we saw Nifty dropping to 15500 levels and moving back again towards 15900 levels. Though it was a range bound move, nifty failed to break below 15450 levels and held on it and move back towards 15900 levels which suggests upmove is still intact and Nifty is likely to move towards 16K and beyond.

Last week we had discussed "if we see positive open on Monday and Nifty sustains above todays high then its likely that correction is already over as ABC irregular (secnario-1) and Nifty moving towards higher level and on the other hand if we see a gap-down open & strong fall below 15450, then scenario B is playing out (which is a bearish scenario) and could take Nifty below 15K levels" 

Nifty opened weak on Monday (due to weak global cues) but held 15450 which we had mentioned as the crucial support going forward. Seeing Bears inability to take market below 15450 Bulls once again got active and they not only succeeded in defending 15450 but took markets back towards 15700 on the same day itself and subsequently moved towards 15900.

Last couple of weeks markets were appearing a bit overbought but this consolidation has ensured that this is not the case anymore and markets are not in so much overbought zone now. Trading wise we had clearly mentioned if Markets make a move above 15700 then its strong and hence only long trade should be initiated. Markets are already 150+ points from 15700 and moving forward its highly likely that resistance area of 15900 will give away sooner or later and markets will make a move towards 16k+ levels. Support area is now shifted to 15650-700 levels and till the time it holds the short term trend is likely to remain positive. 15900 has been tested enough times and is not likely to hold for long now.

Happy Trading!

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Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Trend for Next Week (21-25th Jun 2021)

Medium Term Trend: ☝ UP (Changes to down below 15400)

 Nifty @ 15683 - Sideways trade

Current week was a tad volatile, initially we saw a drop towards 15600 then Nifty rose and touched 15900 only to drop towards 15450 today & then recover sharply & close at 15700 levels.

Overall Inspite of the volatility Nifty has just closed flat but the movement we saw during last few days is very interesting and probably next couple of sessions will help decide if Nifty has made an intermediary top at 15900 levels or mkt will continue to rise & move beyond 16K+ levels. We had always maintained and mentioned in the last post that markets were overbought and negative divergences were also visible on the charts however there was no weakness on the price charts and  charts were still looking good and strong. Now what this movement (last week) has done is that it has brought weakness to the price charts too. Bears got very close to turning tables on bulls but were prevented in the end (thanks to last hour pull back). Now moving forward we see two possibilities.

A) Bullish Scenario: Last 5-7 days movement has played out like an irregular corrective pattern, drop towards 15600 earlier in the week was A leg, then move to 15900-B leg and move towards 15450 today was C (last leg). Once C leg got completed, market opened a fresh leg on the upside and moved sharply towards 15700. If this assumption indeed is correct then market is likely to continue moving up and move beyond 16K levels soon. To confirm this scenario Nifty should sustain above 15730-750 levels on Monday ( just above todays high) & then move above 15800. 

B) Bearish Scenario: This scenario assumes that market has hit  a short term top around 15900 last week and a fresh corrective move has started from there. Fall we witnessed on Wednesday, Thursday & first half today supports this theory very much. Its just the sharp pullback we witnessed in second half which contradicts it. However it is important for Nifty to break below 15450 (Sensex 51500) soon. While Nifty bounced back exactly from 15450, Sensex hit a low of 51600. In short, if we see a drop towards 15450 again in next 1-2 trading session then its highly likely that this scenario is playing out hence trade accordingly. At the time of writing this post, DOW is trading 400 points down so anything is possible.

In Nutshell, if we see positive open on Monday and Nifty sustains above todays high then its likely that correction is already over as ABC irregular (secnario-1) and Nifty moving towards higher level and on the other hand if we see a gap-down open & strong fall below 15450, then scenario B is playing out (which is a bearish scenario) and could take Nifty below 15K levels. 

Next week (initial 1-2 days specially) could be very crucial hence be alert and trade wisely, lot of points could be up for grabs, if, as a trader you keep patience and trade wisely.

Happy Trading!

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Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Trend for Next Week (14-18th Jun 2021)

Medium Term Trend: ☝ UP (Changes to down below 15100)

Nifty @ 15800 - Inching up slowly

In the last post we had discussed 

"In Nutshell, market are in slightly overbought territory ( as its moving in one line since past many days) but markets can stay in overbought territory for long hence its not a reason to go short but continue to maintain long position with tight stop losses. Markets are strong and in bullish zone now and there is no reason why it cant move beyond 16K in this upmove"

In the last week market has moved further up towards 15800. Its definitely facing resistance around 15800 however no major weakness or selling pressure is seen till now. On Wednesday markets dropped towards 15600 which raised the questions if markets are starting a correction for short-term. However yesterdays and todays pullback is indicating against that. This upmove we are seeing is likely to last for few more days and we can see one more leg on the upside before market gives any sort of correction.

Overall market continues to be overbought and we are also seeing negative divergences on hourly chart however on price chart there is no weakness still and momentum is still strong and likely to continue. There is no reason why markets cannot rally further 400-500 points before correcting a bit. VIX is continuously falling and is now below 15 ( which is the lowest level for current year). Low VIX is also indicating that we might see some more buying interest and hence more upside from here only thing is upmove could be gradual and slow.

Since markets are overbought, the things can change anytime hence no sign of weakness should be ignored. Any weakness persisting beyond 3-4 days could result in short term reversal. Having said this the trading should still be done on the long side only with strict stop losses ( like we discussed in previous post as well).

As far as levels are concerned for short term levels around 15650-625 should offer good support and below that 15500 is the major support area below which market could drop towards 15100 which is the final support level of this upmove. And like we mentioned in previous post, keep a tight SL, exit when market exhibits sign of weakness and enter long again when strength remerges.

Happy Trading!

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Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Trend for Week 07th Jun 2021

 

Medium Term Trend: ☝ UP (Changes to down below 15000)

Nifty @ 15670 - Consolidating at @ 15700

Since last update (May end) Nifty has added  further ~500+ points and continue to trade strong. Regular reader of our blog are aware that we had been talking about this upmove/rally when Nifty was at 14300-400 levels in March/April. 

Today, once RBI announced no change in repo rate and downgraded FY21 GDP growth from 10.5% to 9.5%, there was a small sell off but it was quickly absorbed at 15640-650 levels and bulls prevented further damage. Now market has reached a stage where it moves in positive direction in absence of any news and a negative news merely causes it to take a pause. Market participants & general public is still in disbelief and now are waiting for a big correction but so far its eluding. It will come one day but the current chart are are suggesting that its probably some distance away and might not come immediately.

Nifty is now in unchartered territory and any level on upside is possible hence its not wise to talk about higher levels and resistances but levels around 16k-16500 are very much possible in this wave. On the down side we see 3 strong area of supports.

For short term, we have decent support at 15550-75 levels & below that very strong support exists at 15300-25 level can see strong buying emerging and then final support rests at 15K below which the medium term trend will change to down. 

In Nutshell, market are in slightly overbought territory ( as its moving in one line since past many days)

 but markets can stay in overbought territory for long hence its not a reason to go short but continue to maintain long position with tight stop losses. Markets are strong and in bullish zone now and there is no reason why it cant move beyond 16K in this upmove. Keep a tight SL, exit when market exhibits sign of weakness and enter long again when strength remerges should be the trading strategy for coming week.

Remember money is made only by riding a trend and not by questioning it and predicting its reversal (that way you will only lose your capital).

Happy Trading!

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Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Trend for Week 24-28 May 2021

Medium Term Trend: ☝ UP (Changes to down below 14450)

Nifty @ 15175 UP 270 points - Exhibiting super strength

In last 15-20 trading sessions Nifty has shown remarkable strength and it has moved from the lows of 14250 to 15100  (almost 900 points) which is very much in line with what we had been predicting from last couple of months. We had repeatedly been saying that the current downmove which we are seeing is just a consolidation move and once its over Nifty is likely to open a fresh leg on the upside. All the negative news (Corona cases etc) is only going to act as a fuel for the rally.

                  Wave count posted in 14th April post

Nifty Daily Till 14 Apr

                  How Nifty Actually folded

Nifty Daily Till 21st May

Now that we have seen a clear breakout its highly likely that Nifty is heading towards its all time high ( 15400) levels and may be beyond that. Market is strong and its gaining strength by each passing day which is evident from the higher highs and higher lows. 15000-15050 was a strong resistance for Nifty which has been cleared today (final hope for bears is gone now). Today we have seen a huge amount of OI buildup in  May15K put which suggests market is likely to trade above this level till expiry atleast. 

On upside we have some resistance around 15400 levels (previous high) and beyond that 15600 and on the downside we see strong support at 14900-15K band. Any weakness is likely to find support at these levels. For bears to seize the initiative they must break below 14840-50 levels in next 4-5 trading sessions ( before expiry) failure to do so will only add more strength in Bull's camp. Below 14850, final support lies at 14450 levels and till the its not broken, the overall trend is likely to remain on the upside.

Happy Trading!

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Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Trend for 22nd Apr 2021

Medium Term Trend: 👈👉Sideways (Changes to up above 15100 & down below 14200)

Nifty @ 14295 down 63 points - Weakness once Again

Last couple of days have brought mayhem in Markets and Nifty has crashed from 14600+ levels to 14200+ levels. Worsening covid cases & the widespread panic was blamed for the sell off. In last few posts we have been discussing that Markets are in sideways mode and have been maintaining that the break out is likely to be seen on the upside.  In the previous post we had mentioned that:

For bearish option to play out we should see a strong reaction on Monday (when we say strong we mean atleast a fall of 150-200 point) followed up by break of 14250 levels in next 3 trading session, anything short of that is not likely to deter bulls.

Unfortunately for bulls thats how it turned out and markets opened with a 200+ gapdown on Monday Even a flat or mildly weak trading session on Monday would have gone a long way in kickstarting the upmove. Frankly speaking we were not expecting such a move and the probability of same was pretty low. However that does not mean that overall view is changed, inspite of the carnage witnessed in last couple of days , the overall view still remains same. Market is in sideways mode and breakout is still likely to come on upside. Reason is simple, market has spent way too much time in this range ( around 40 days or 9 week). Usually no bearish/sideways mode lasts for more than this period. Lets  compare the last 40 days movement with crash we had seen in Feb/Mar last year.

Last year when the crash unfolded it took markets exactly 9 weeks to crash from 12500 levels to 7500 levels. Now market has consumed almost same time but trading just 1000 points from all time low. Point is market does not like to wait (especially for a downside move).If any major fall was possible then it would and should have come by now. In other words, If markets were to go down it would have gone down by now and not waited for cases to increase to 2.5L. What we witnessed was probably just a kneejerk reaction by a section of market participants and once the news is digested its likely to reverse. Remember any move which comes AFTER the news is out does not last for long (news follows market and not other way around).

Having said this, in case we break below 14200 levels ( have shifted the range slightly to 14200-15100) and close (2 consecutive close) then it possible that we see some more fall (towards 13800) but even if that happens that should be just the last leg of this fall expanding on the downside.

In Nutshell, 14200-14300 levels hold the key for short term & if market holds it ( its been holding since last 2 months) and start trading above 14550-600 then it will be a very positive sign and indication that break out is arriving on the other hand if 14200 breaks then we might see some more fall but even then market is not likely to sustain below it for long.

Happy Trading!

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To see our recent trading calls for Nifty Algo- Pls click ⤇ Past Trade Summary (updated till 19th Apr).

Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Trend for 19th Apr 2021

Medium Term Trend: 👈👉Sideways (Changes to up above 15200 & down below 14300)

Nifty @ 14620 up 40 points - Beginning to gain strength

Nifty tested 14700 levels today however could not breach it and dropped to 14600 levels and closed with small gains. After testing 14300 levels early this week market has yet again managed to move around 400 points from the lows (hit on Monday). We had mentioned following in the previous post

"Nifty is still holding on to 14250-14300 levels which means bulls are not out of picture. Yesterday fall was driven by panic and often bottoms are made during panic. Rising corona cases are leading traders to believe a repeat of Mar 2020 which as per us is very far fetched thought ( atleast as of now). Infact such a a sharp fall could lead market to move up with same force (aided by short covering and value buying). Remember we had also said that doesnt matter which scenario is playing out, the overall trend is likely to break on the upside and nothing has changed even now(even after a 500 point fall)"

Now last few days recovery is justifying our stance and indicating that our overall analysis (so far) is on right path. Nifty has tested one crucial resistance today (14650) and though it didnt close above it, we didnt see any strong sell off as well which is indeed a positive sign. If we do not see a sell off soon and market start spending some more time near these levels & manage a positive close above 14650-700 levels then it could indicate that 14850-900 is likely to be tested again soon. We have spend close to 40 trading sessions in the range and its enough to bore traders and market is ripe for a breakout.

For bearish option to play out we should see a strong reaction on Monday (when we say strong we mean atleast a fall of 150-200 point) followed up by break of 14250 levels in next 3 trading session, anything short of that is not likely to deter bulls.

We would advise bears to exercise caution and refrain from creating short position for now, recently market has rewarded traders who have sold on every rise but situation can change any time. On the contrary if strength is witnessed on even Monday, then long position can be added (with adequate and proper SL of course).


Happy Trading!

To Join our Nifty algo buy/sell whatsapp message service during market hours, pls click⤇ Nifty Buy/Sell Algorithm or whatsapp @ 9319321906

To see our recent trading calls for Nifty Algo- Pls click ⤇ Past Trade summary (updated till 5th Apr).

Nifty Tomorrow: Prediction, outlook and Trend for 15th Apr 2021

Medium Term Trend:  👈👉Sideways (Changes to up above 15200 & down below 14300)

Nifty @ 14504 UP 195 points  - Nifty turning Volatile

Nifty open flattish and after threatening to go down below 14300 levels, made a swift recovery in the end and closed at 14500 levels. This has come after losing 500 points in previous session ( black Monday) which raises the question if the bounce we are seeing is just a dead cat bounce.

In the previous post we had discussed about two possibilities and had mentioned that if  the second scenario is playing out then"...……….. market should open another leg(E) which could again take market down to 14500 (or lower) levels". further we had mentioned that "if its the second scenario, then we could see some weakness in next few trading sessions accompanied by some sharp fall"

We did see some sharp fall ( sharper than anyone could have imagined) on Monday but the overall movement remains on expected lines. Nifty is still holding on to 14250-14300 levels which means bulls are not out of picture. Yesterday fall was driven by panic and often bottoms are made during panic. Rising corona cases are leading traders to believe a repeat of Mar 2020 which as per us is very far fetched thought ( atleast as of now). Infact such a a sharp fall could lead market to move up with same force (aided by short covering and value buying). Remember we had also said that doesnt matter which scenario is playing out, the overall trend is likely to break on the upside and nothing has changed even now(even after a 500 point fall).

Nifty Daily

Now we have spend around 38 trading session in consolidation/sideways correction and surely not much time is remaining for this consolidation to get over. Market cant remain like this forever. In our experience, we have seen often seen consolidation period ranging from 30-40 days (generally speaking though it can extend as well). We had shared this data in the beginning of March itself.

Moving forward market has a good resistance in 14650-14800 levels (gapdown area of Monday) and if the pull back we witness today is just a dead cat bounce then Nifty should not move above this area and crash below 14300 again. A move below 14250-300 could mean that something else is brewing in markets which needs to be re-analysed later. Trading wise, we had exited our long position on Thursday/Friday around 14800 & 14900 levels and now adopting a wait and watch approach. Fresh trading call will be taken and shared soon.


In Summary, overall consolidation pattern continues, for a bullish move to begin look for a successful crossover above B-D line (chart above). On the other hand a break below 14250 ( 2 consecutive close) levels could mean the entire corrective pattern is now beginning to take shape as a impulsive pattern which will be a bad news for Bulls.


Trade accordingly.

Happy Trading!

To Join our Nifty algo buy/sell whatsapp message service during market hours, pls click⤇ Nifty Buy/Sell Algorithm  or whatsapp @ 9319321906 

To see our recent trading calls for Nifty Algo- Pls click ⤇  Past Trade summary (updated till  5th Apr).