Medium Term Trend: ↑UP (Changes to down below 9500)
Rangebound & volatile : Nifty opened slightly weak but immediately bounced backed above 9900 however once again got stuck at 10k levels and sellers pulled it back below 9900 levels. It closed around 9880 with a minor loss of around 30 points.
Nifty may have closed down with small losses but point to note is the intraday volatility we are seeing since last few days. Yesterday markets opened super strong 200+ but couldn't held on to its gain and turned -100 ( >300 point fall from day high). Today again markets tried to scale above 10k but Bears pulled it back and as a result it almost lost around 150 points from day high.
Now in previous post we had mentioned "Nifty failed to move above 10k, which was a key requirement and even broke below 9850-9800 levels, this has raised some strong doubts about the sustainability of the recovery we saw on Friday"
We had turned cautious on Monday itself and today we are a bit more cautious then we were before. Though Nifty has not fallen much since Monday, it has not moved up either and looking at charts we continue to advise caution at current levels as with each passing day and with each failure to climb above 10k levels, the chances of Nifty moving down are increasing. Though most of the analyst on TV and youtube are bullish at this moment and predicting 10500 levels in coming few sessions, we are clearly in no hurry to buy Nifty at CMP. Lets see why.
- After Monday, Nifty made two more attempts( yesterday and today) to move above 10k levels but failed both times as a result we can see a 'tripple top' kind of pattern now at 10k levels.
- On hourly charts, the entire pattern of last 4-5 trading session is looking like one "head and shoulder" pattern with neck line sitting at 9730 levels. which can have bearish implications in coming few sessions if 9730 breaks
- Today Intraday chart, Nifty has made 'inverted hammer' candle which can be both bullish & bearish depending on where it formed, but looking at current chart positioning its looking more of a bearish candle to us.
There are couple of other factors too (cannot be explained here) which are advising caution at current levels. There are warning signs clearly appearing ahead and if 10050-10075 is not crossed with a force, then those might come true as well.
From trading perspective those who are long should keep an tight watch on 9800 levels and if this levels breaks then be on guards. Final level is around 9720-9730 levels ( also the neckline of the H&S pattern) and if that is breached as well then we see no point in holding on the existing long and we recommend exiting.
To join our Nifty buy/sell whatsapp message service during market hours, pls click⤇ Nifty Buy/Sell Algorithm or whatsapp @ 9319321906
To see our recent trading calls,as soon as a position is closed, its updated here ⤇ Past Trade summary
Happy Trading
No comments:
Post a Comment