Nifty Analysis: Outlook and Trend for 1st Jul 2020

Medium Term Trend: ↑UP (Changes to down below 9725)

 Rangebound Moves continues: Nifty once again failed to moved above 10400 levels and dragged to 10300 levels.

There was negative energy building in Nifty since last few days and Nifty even dragged itself from 10550 levels to 10200 levels (though defended it on closing basis) and thats the reason we have been sounding a bit cautious since last few days. However the way markets are stuck in tight range and giving rangebound moves between 10200-10400, theres a possibility that this negative energy which was building in Nifty is consumed or absorbed already in this sideway trade.

In Previous post we had mentioned that if 10225 breaks then downward move can gain momentum, Nifty defended this level yesterday and today. Now time is slowly running out for bears. If Nifty continues to consolidate between 10200-10400 then there is a likelihoold of nifty making one more dash towards 10550 -10600 levels.

In nutshell, the downward bias still exists but Nifty now need to make a swift fall below 10200 levels very soon ( next 1-2 trading session).Once we see a quick fall below 10200 -150 levels, the other negative patterns ( wedge/evening star etc mentioned in previous post) will have any significance (till then they are just possibilities).Biding and spending time around 10300 will be indicative of nifty making a base for one more push towards higher level.

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Nifty Analysis: Outlook and Trend for 29th Jun 2020

Medium Term Trend: ↑UP (Changes to down below 9725)

 Rangebound: Nifty was volatile but strictly traded in a tight range between 10200-10400 in last couple of trading sessions.

In the last post we had mentioned "Holding on to 10225 levels could push Nifty back towards 10500 however break of 10225 could increase the downward momentum and push Nifty all the way to 10K levels once again"

Nifty did test 10200 levels on Thursday (twice) and even though it didn't sustain below it, breaking of 10225 levels intraday has raised some more doubts about Nifty's ability to sustain high levels. Market is looking kind of tired so a corrective/sideways move from here is possible. To negate this, nifty must hold 10225 levels and make a strong bounce above 10550 levels. 10225 is a critical level for short term and shouldn't be tested again and again ( its already tested once and broken intraday last week).

On weekly chart, Nifty has made a 'doji' or 'spinning top' kind of pattern which has come after a strong bullish candle in previous week. Now if we have a strong bearish candle next week then entire pattern could turn into 'evening star'. Evening star is bearish pattern and indicative of top formation. Appearance of 'Evening star' on weekly chart is not very common and could have bearish implications in times to come. However to conclude anything we must see how Nifty trades (and more importantly) and wnere it closes next week.

There are couple of other indicators which are indicating a possible 'pause' here like 200 DEMA - Nifty 200 DEMA is sitting at 10550 levels and Nifty (so far) has failed to cross above it. Also on daily charts if one look at candle of last Wednesday then one will see 'bearish engulfing' candle. Which again is a bearish pattern (and so far nifty has failed to break above it). 

Overall ( as we have posted in previous posts ) the entire rise from 7500 to 10500 is looking like one ascending wedge which seems be in (or already completed) its last leg 'E'. Strong move below 10200 levels could be a strong indication that its indeed a wedge. However having said this, the overall sentiment and participation in the market remains positive and bullish ( all gapdowns/falls are currently being bought into) but we all know that can change in a minute hence one needs to be careful.

To join our Nifty algo buy/sell whatsapp message service during market hours, pls click⤇ Nifty Buy/Sell Algorithm  or whatsapp @ 9319321906 

To see our recent trading calls for Nifty Algo- Pls click ⤇  Past Trade summary ( updated once existing position is closed)

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Nifty Analysis: Outlook and Trend for 25th Jun 2020

Medium Term Trend: ↑UP (Changes to down below 9725)

 Nifty Tumbles: After a flurry of gains in last few sessions, Nifty finally moved down and closed around 10300 levels, with a loss of around 165 points.

In previous post we had mentioned: 

"Nifty is now nearing its intermediate target which is around 10500-550 levels so we can see some halt/pause at these levels"

"Current rally is mostly driven by short covering and now that we have moved conclusively above 10350 levels the short covering more or less seems to be done with. Going forward further upside will depend on how much actual/followup buying"

Both these factors played out and after acheiving its current target which was sitting around 10550 levels, nifty saw some profit booking. Also with most of the short covering already out of the way , markets failed to find any support and drifted down.

Now moving forward its possible that its just a temp pause and Nifty  will again resume its journey upwards on the other hand chances of further weakness from current levels have also increased. Lows around 10225-10250 are important during next 1-2 trading sessions and if Nifty break below it then it can once again drop towards 10K or lower levels.

Nifty had some minor support at 10325-10350 levels which was breached intraday today and even day close has come below it which tilts the bias in favour of bear slightly more. To negate this bias Nifty must make a smart recovery back above 10450-500 levels very fast.

In summary, there was a possibility of some fall from 10500 levels which has materialized now and future moves will depend on what Nifty does in coming sessions. Holding on to 10225 levels could push Nifty back towards 10500 however break of 10225 could increase the downward momentum and push Nifty all the way to 10K levels once again.  For medium term 9725 is the key area and if its breached then we are looking at some major correction (entire rally from 7500-10500 could get corrected). From trading perspective long positions that we had were all squared off today.

To join our Nifty algo buy/sell whatsapp message service during market hours, pls click⤇ Nifty Buy/Sell Algorithm  or whatsapp @ 9319321906

To see our recent trading calls for Nifty Algo- Pls click ⤇  Past Trade summary ( updated once existing position is closed)

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