Medium Term Trend: ↓Down (Changes to up above 9800)
Splendid expiry: Nifty managed to move and close above 9800 levels and put on 300+ points to close at 9850 levels.
Nifty has closed above our critical pivotal level however we would like to see 2 consecutive close above 9800 to finally confirm if the trend indeed has changed hence for now keeping the trend as down only. Usually the movement witnessed on expiry day is governed by position in F&O space rather than anything else and that is the reason it cannot be trusted fully. Till 3PM Nifty was trading below 9800 and shot up above 9800 levels in last 15-20 mins hence we need one more close above it to confirm. Most probably the trend has indeed changed but it wont cause any harm in waiting for one more close.
Another thing to note is that on hourly charts markets have now turned overbought. Yes, all these while we were saying that markets are oversold but now things are changing and markets have turned overbought on hourly charts hence some consolidation or sideways movement from current level is possible.
Reliance results that came yesterday evening were bad and global markets are also not doing well today. While this post is being updated, Nifty future on SGX is trading at 9400 down 450 points so considering everything it makes sense to observe markets a little more from here. If markets takes support around 9400-9500 levels and start moving up again and conquers 9800 levels once more then probably the trend has changed for good but if we keep drifting down and goes on to break below 9200 then it opens up bearish options once again.
Keep in mind that even if the trend changes to upside, its not going to be a smooth ride for Nifty. We will keep seeing pullbacks but the overall direction will be on upside.
Nifty Buy/Sell Algorithm
Splendid expiry: Nifty managed to move and close above 9800 levels and put on 300+ points to close at 9850 levels.
Nifty has closed above our critical pivotal level however we would like to see 2 consecutive close above 9800 to finally confirm if the trend indeed has changed hence for now keeping the trend as down only. Usually the movement witnessed on expiry day is governed by position in F&O space rather than anything else and that is the reason it cannot be trusted fully. Till 3PM Nifty was trading below 9800 and shot up above 9800 levels in last 15-20 mins hence we need one more close above it to confirm. Most probably the trend has indeed changed but it wont cause any harm in waiting for one more close.
Another thing to note is that on hourly charts markets have now turned overbought. Yes, all these while we were saying that markets are oversold but now things are changing and markets have turned overbought on hourly charts hence some consolidation or sideways movement from current level is possible.
Reliance results that came yesterday evening were bad and global markets are also not doing well today. While this post is being updated, Nifty future on SGX is trading at 9400 down 450 points so considering everything it makes sense to observe markets a little more from here. If markets takes support around 9400-9500 levels and start moving up again and conquers 9800 levels once more then probably the trend has changed for good but if we keep drifting down and goes on to break below 9200 then it opens up bearish options once again.
Keep in mind that even if the trend changes to upside, its not going to be a smooth ride for Nifty. We will keep seeing pullbacks but the overall direction will be on upside.
Happy Trading
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Nifty Buy/Sell Algorithm
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