Nifty Analysis: Outlook and Trend for 01st Jun 2020

Medium Term Trend: ↓Down (Changes to up above 9800)

Maintaining strength: Nifty opened weak around 9400 levels but managed to move back above 9500 levels and almost hit 9600 levels and closed at 9580 up 90 points.

Nifty continues to move in line with our expectations and like we have been saying there is a good chance that Nifty is headed towards 9800 levels.  On the short term charts market continues to remain slightly overbought hence some sort of sideways movement/consolidation is possible before Nifty start moving again.

Today Nifty future discount widened to around 70-80 points. This is huge and indicative of lack of convictions traders have in markets. However we believe the discounting is more because positions are being 'hedged' by smart traders of course some sort of shorting is also going on so that is contributing as well.Anyways not too much should be read into it.

Today Nifty made a new high and that is important. It sustaining right in the middle of  'island reversal' area which is not a good news for bears, ideally they would have liked to see a strong reaction from 9500 levels (in the morning there was a sign of such reaction but then markets recovered quickly)

Now since market is broadly moving in line with our expectations there nothing much to add today, same views as mentioned in previous posts stands even now and we need to see if Nifty can make one more push and move itself above the critical level of 9800. That should settle things decisively in favor of Bulls ( if not already).

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Nifty Analysis: Outlook and Trend for 29th May 2020

Medium Term Trend: ↓Down (Changes to up above 9800)

Nifty Soars, Fills the Gap: Nifty followed up yesterdays rally with another strong rally and almost closed at 9500 levels up 175 points.

Nifty sudden rise may have taken most by surprise but regular readers of our blog are well aware that we have been expecting this move for quite a while now. We had even pointed out the entire pattern is reminiscent of May 2018 (2 years back) when Nifty had shown similar pattern ( read here Post dt 20th May)

In last couple of months Nifty has shown a tendency of repeatedly falling down after touching 9300-9350 levels however even then we had maintained that eventually this level will be broken markets may take some time to do it but it will  be taken out for sure.

Looking at the Nifty movement of last few days, there are strong indications that its broken for good now but we would like to see and observe markets for little more before confirming. Now lets take a step back and ref to our old posts where we had been mentioning about the significance of gap-down 'island reversal' area. Bearish Island reversal is a strong pattern and its appearance usually bring bad news for the bulls. Nifty had formed 2 back 2 back 'island reversals' and we mentioned that for any +ve scenario to unfold these gap down areas must be filled. Today Nifty has done a significant thing. it has filled the last gap down area. Now this should be read as a strong statement by markets and can bullish implications in coming days.

Nifty Hourly Chart

Filling this gap down area is the first step towards changing the medium term of markets which has been in 'down' mode since March. The next (major) resistance lies at 9750-9800 levels which is both , our critical turning point as well as the starting point of Island reversal area. If this gets filled then we can continue to see some strong bullish moves in times to come. However that doesn't mean that there wont be any pull backs. Of course pull backs will keep coming  but those could be utilized to enter long positions. When Nifty was trading at 8000-8500 we continuously were saying that this is not the time to panic but time to build portfolio from long term & one should start buying quality stocks.  Most stocks are up 10-20% from there. Reliance is up from 950 levels to 1500, Nestle is trading near new all time highs so is HLL and there are plenty such stocks.

Anyways, to summarise, Nifty has closed a key gap down area today which can have bullish implications in times to come. Next crucial resistance lies in 9500-9750 range ( big 250 points range). Pull backs are likely to come from time to time as markets are beginning to get overbought on short term charts. Hence some consolidation or sideways movement is likely and Nifty is expected to have strong support near 9200-9300 area and any fall which comes is likely to be restricted around these levels.

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Nifty Analysis: Outlook and Trend for 28th May 2020

Medium Term Trend: ↓Down (Changes to up above 9800)

& it jumped: Nifty moved perfectly in line with expectations and jumped almost 300 points to close above 9300 levels.

Please see what we had mentioned in last couples of posts:

Post dt 20th May:

"So now that we have made a close above 9000 levels, can we expect Nifty to move back to 9500 levels? I think we can, there are indications beginning to appear on charts which are suggesting a strong bull run in coming days"

Post dt 25th May:

"think its too early to conclude that markets are done with the current move. There is probably plenty of steam yet left in the markets and it can still move up from here. This nervousness and weakness could only strengthen the markets from here"

Also in the first half today (when the Nifty was trading around 9100) we had sent a tweet mentioning about the probability of an up-move and warned traders having short positions in the markets and within couple of hours Nifty obliged. Now this just shows the power of technical analysis and chart reading.

Regular readers must be aware that we have also been mentioning about an important resistance which exists in 9250-9370 levels ( bearish island reversal). Further gains are possible if this gap area is complete filled. We were hopeful of Nifty filling this gap when Nifty fell below 9k and still are hopeful. Today inspire of this strong up-move the gap is still not filled (though Nifty closed bang in the middle of it). Going forward we need to see if Nifty manages to move above 9370 levels and fills the gap. That will be a strong statement by the markets and an indication that markets wants to move much higher (back towards 9500-9800 zone where the second island reversal lies).

In Nutshell, Nifty continue to exhibit positive signs and if it manages to move above 9370 levels then further gains can be expected. As far as trading is concerned, we had entered long position at 8950 levels which contnues (amidst part profit booking) even now.

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Nifty Analysis: Outlook and Trend for 26th May 2020

Medium Term Trend: ↓Down (Changes to up above 9800)

9000 holds: Friday, Nifty opened strong but soon dropped below 9k levels once rate cut news was out. It managed to recoup some of the losses to close at 9040 levels down 70 points.

Nifty is exhibiting nervousness around 9100 levels which is understandable, it also dropped more than 150 points from the days high which also added to the nervousness. Having said this I think its too early to conclude that markets are done with the current move. There is probably plenty of steam yet left in the markets and it can still move up from here. This nervousness and weakness could only strengthen the markets from here. Remember most of the world markets were having bad day on Friday and HangSeng was down more than 1000 points, yet Nifty recovered and was down only 60-70 points which could be a sign that strength is rebuilding in the markets.

On daily chars, Nifty made a doji pattern which signifies indecisiveness and on weekly charts it formed an 'hammer' pattern which can be a bullish sign ( once Nifty start trading above 9160 levels).

In previous post we had mentioned the probability of Nifty moving towards 9500 levels. We still feel that is possible but need Nifty to sustain above 9150 levels however if markets fails to move above 9150 and drops below 8970 levels ( Fridays low) then probably things will start changing again.

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Nifty Buy/Sell Algorithm

Nifty Algo Trade Summary 24th 2020 Feb onwards

Last updated till 21st Jun 2021

21st Jun 21: Buy call @ 15716. Position open

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14th Jun 21: Buy call @ 15705. Part profit booked @ 15870 on 15th Jun, & bal position exited @ 14750 on 16th Jun .Max gain 165 points

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11th Jun 21: Buy call @ 15820. SL triggered on 14 Jun @ 15640 .Loss 180 points

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03rd Jun 21: Buy call @ 15662. Part profit booked @ 15711 on 4th Jun, @15741 on 7th Jun, @ 15800 on 9th jun & bal position exited @ 14647 on same day (9th Jun) .Max gain 138 points

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21st May 21: Buy call @ 15063. Position closed @ 15166 on same day. Max gain 103 points

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17th May 21: Buy call @ 14820. Part profit booked @ 14918 on same day, @15092 on 18th May, @15450 on 28th May & bal position exited @ 15500 on 2nd Jun .Jackpot profit 680 points

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06th May 21: Buy call @ 14715. Part profit booked @ 14834 on 7th May, @14920 on 10th May & bal position exited @ 14765 on 12th Apr .Max gain 205 points

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27th Apr 21: Buy call @ 14625. Part profit booked @ 14875 on 28th Apr, @15010 on 29th Apr & bal position exited @ 14775 on 30th Apr .Max gain 385 points

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15th Apr 21: Buy call @ 14590. Part profit booked @ 14680 on 16th Apr & bal position Exited @ 14290 (gapdown open) on 19th Apr .Gain of 90 points on part & Loss of 300 points on Bal

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06th Apr 21: Buy call @ 14755. Part profit booked @ 14850 on 7th Apr, @14925 on 8th Apr & bal position exited @ 14795 on 9th Apr .Max gain 170 points

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30th Mar 21: Buy call @ 14850. Exit call @14675 on 5th Apr .Loss 175 points

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26th  Mar 21: Buy call @ 14478. Part profit booked @14540 on same day & bal position exited @14645on 30th March .Max profit earned 167 Nifty points

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16th Mar 21: Sell call (additional) @ 14965. Profit booked @14862 on 17th Mar. Max profit earned 103 Nifty points

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15th Mar 21: Sell call @ 14823. Part profit booked @14786 & @14709 on 17th Mar, @14601 on 18 Mar, @14377 on 19th march & final exit call @ 14740 on 19th march. Max profit earned 446 Nifty points

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09th  Mar 21: Buy call @ 15115. Part profit booked @15210 on 10th Mar & @15315 on 12th Mar & bal position exited @ 15065 on 12th Mar. Max profit earned 63 Nifty points

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04th  Mar 21: Buy call @ 15088. Part profit booked @15151on same day. Exit call @ 15021 on 5th Mar .Max profit earned 63 Nifty points

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26th Feb 21: Sell call @ 14787. Part profit booked @14684, 14620 & 14570 on same day & bal position exited at 14877 .Max profit earned 217 Nifty points

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19th Feb 21: Sell call @ 14950. Part profit booked @ 14770 & 14692 on 22nd feb & bal position exited at entry level.Max profit earned 258 Nifty points

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05th Feb 21: Buy call @ 15294. Part profit booked at 15400 level on 16th Feb & balance long exited @ 15233 on 17th Feb.Max profit earned 106 Nifty points

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05th Feb 21: Buy call @ 14938. Part profit booked at 15125 level on 8th Feb, @15202 on 9th Feb & balance long exited @ 15030 in 10th Feb.Max profit earned 264 Nifty points

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25th Jan 21: Sell call @ 14285. Part profit booked @ 14115 on 27 Jan, @13835 on 28th Jan, @13640 on 29th Jan. Bal profit booked @ 14025 on 1st Feb. Max profit earned 645 Nifty points

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20th Jan 21: Buy call @ 14563.Part profit booked @ 14660 on same day &14718 on 21st Jan. Bal Position exited @14540 (almost at par) on 21s Jan .Max profit earned 155 Nifty points

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23rd Dec: Buy call @ 13571-Part profit booked @ 13698 & 13740 on 24 Dec, @ 13847 on 28 Dec,@13940 on @9 Dec,@14017 on 1st Jan & Final exit call @14508 on 14 Jan. Jackpot Profit earned 937 Nifty Points

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18th Dec: Buy call @ 13658.Part profit booked @ 13714 &13750 on 17th Dec. Bal Position exited @13678 on 18th Dec. Max profit earned 92 Nifty points

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15th Dec: Sell call @ 13493.Position exited @13565 on same day. Loss 72 Nifty Points

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27th Nov: Buy call @ 13015- Part profit booked @ 1115 on 1st Dec, @13171 on 3rd Dec, @ 13221 on 4th Dec, @13480 on 9th Dec & balance position exited @13425 on 11th Dec .Max profit earned 465 Nifty points

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23rd Nov: Buy call @ 12952- Part profit booked @ 13045 on 24th Nov, @13143 on 25th Nov & for balance position SL triggered & exited @12890.Max profit earned 191 Nifty points

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02nd Nov: Buy call @ 11706 Part profit booked @11813 on 3rd Nov, @12067 on 5th nov, @ 12445 on 9th Nov & bal position exited @ 12800 on 19th November. Jackpot Profit earned 1,094 Nifty Points

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04th Nov: Buy call @ 11775 Part profit booked @11876 on same day & 100% profit @12067 on 5th Nov 2020.Max profit earned 292 Nifty points

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27th Oct: Buy call @ 11895-Position exited @11775 on 28th Oct. Loss 120 Nifty Points

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19th Oct: Buy call @ 11875- Part profit booked @11985 and balance long exited @11809 on 21st Oct. Max profit earned 110 Nifty points

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01st Oct: Buy call @ 11372- Part profit booked @11505 on 5th Oct, @11640 on 6th Oct, @11734 on 7th Oct and balance long exited @11840 on 14th Oct. Max profit earned 468 Nifty points

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21st Sep: Sell call @ 11318 -Part profit booked at 11255 on same day, @11155 on 22nd Sep,@10960 on 24th Sep & Bal short exited @ 11056 on 25th Sep.Max profit earned 358 points

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14th Sep: Buy call @ 11536. Part profit booked at 11610 on 16th Sep & bal position exited on 17 Sep @11520  Max profit earned 74 points

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04th Sep: Sell call @ 11370. Part profit booked @ 11314 on same day @11275 on 8th sep, @ 11185 on 9th Sep. Bal short exited at 11350 on 10th Sep. Max profit earned 185 points

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21st Aug: Buy call @ 11411. Part profit booked at 11467 on same day, 25 aug @11522, 27 aug @ 11601 & bal position exited on 31st Aug @ 11550 Max profit earned 190 points

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18th Aug: Buy call @ 11336. Part profit booked at 11390 on same day & 18 aug @11457 & bal position exited on 20th Aug near entry point Max profit earned 121 points

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06th Aug: Buy call @ 11225. Part profit booked at 11326 on 10th Aug & bal position exited on 14th Aug @11235 Max profit earned 101 points

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31st Jul: Sell call @ 11048. Part profit booked at 10912 on same day& bal position exited on 4th Aug @11067 Max profit earned 136 points

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17th Jul: Buy call @ 10801 Position open, part profit booked on same day @10885, 20Jul @ 10990, 21 Jul 11135 & 23 Jul 11210. Bal position exited at 11105 on 24th Jul.Max profit earned 409 points  

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16th Jul: Sell call @ 10600 exit call @ 10805: Loss 205 Nifty Points

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15th Jul: Buy call @ 10804 exit call @ 10670: Loss 134 Nifty Points

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14th Jul: Short/sell call @ 10708, part profit booked at 10600 on same day. Exit call @ 10798:Max profit earned 108 points  
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9th Jul: Short/sell call @ 10757 exit call @ 10820: Loss 63 Nifty Points
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01st Jul: Long entered @ 10405. Part profit booked on 2 Jul @10593, 6 jul @10715 & bal position exited @ 10710.Max profit earned 310 points  
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24th Jun: Short/sell call @ 10320. Part profit booked on 25th Jun @ 10200, Position exited at 10340 on 1st Jul: Max profit earned 120 points

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19th Jun: Long/Buy call @ 10088- Part profit booked on 22 Jun @10325, 23 Jun 10475, 24 Jun @10520 & bal exited @ 10325. Max profit earned 432 Points
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15th Jun: Short/sell call @ 9740. 18th Jun Exit call @ 9993: Loss 253 Nifty Points
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5th Jun: Long/Buy call @ 10127. Part profit booked on 08th Jun @ 10320 & balance long exited @ 10293: Max Profit earned 193 Nifty Points
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20th May: Long/Buy call @ 8949. Part profit booked on  26th May @ 9155, 27th May @9250, 29th May @ 9585, 1st Jun @ 9830 & Exit call @ 10060. Jackpot Profit earned 1,110 Nifty Points
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24 Feb- 18 May

Date	Trade Signal	Trade Progress/Outcome	Max profit/(loss)
24-Feb	Sell call @ 11945	Nifty went till 11036. Exit call @ 11330	909 to 615 points
04-Mar	Buy call @ 11280	Exit call @ 11287	NIL
05-Mar	Buy call @ 11312	Exit call @ 10645	(665 points)
13-Mar	Buy Call @ 9862	Nifty went till 10200. Exit call @ 9230	338 to (662) poiints
20-Mar	Buy Call @8237	Nifty went till 8850. Exit call @ 8000	613 to (237) points
24-Mar	Buy call @ 7915	Exit call @ 7780	(135) points
24-Mar	Buy call @ 8060	Nifty went till 9100 . Exit call @ 8265	1040 to 195 points
31-Mar	Buy call @ 8562	Exit call @ 8382	(180) points
07-Apr	Buy call @ 8570	Nifty went till 9200. Exit call @ 8890	630 to 311 points
17-Apr	Buy call @ 9275	Nifty went till 9400. Exit call @ 9005	125 to (270) Points
22-Apr	Buy call @ 9087	Nifty went till 9350. Exit call @ 9161	263 to 111 points
24-Apr	Sell call @ 9175	Exit call @ 9300	(125) points
27-Apr	Buy Call @ 9325	Exit call @ 9556	331 points
11-May	Buy Call @ 9336	Nifty went till 9450. Exit call @ 9225	114 to (110) points
13-May	Buy Call @ 9460	Exit call @ 9165	(295) points
15-May	Sell call @ 9141	Nifty went till 9040, Exit call at 9151	100 to (10) points
18-May	Buy call @ 8912	Exit call @ 8850	(62) points

Important- Pls note our Algo's range ( entry exit point) is defined by volatility (higher the volatility , higher the range of SL or exit point). During March/Apr'20 Volatility was at insane levels ( >60) hence sometimes exit calls were way below entry points (gapup/down of 500-700 point was the norm those days). During such times , its advisable to trade in extremely light qty (if must) and regular profit booking should be done at every stage. For ex. 24 Mar Buy call given at 8060 and Nifty went till 9100 ideally one should have booked 75 %  profit by then and not wait for the exit call. 1000 point or even 50% of it i.e, 500 points is a jackpot profit in one trade and 75% of the position  should have been booked before exit call.

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Nifty Buy/Sell Algorithm