Medium Term Trend: ↓Down (Changes to up above 12100)
Bounces Back: Nifty Bounced back smartly nearly recovering entire fall of the budget day. It opened strong above 11800 and kept on moving up. It finally closed at 11980 levels.
Yesterday we had changed the market trend to 'down' and had put the reversal level at 11975 levels, however considering the volatility and sharp moves we have adjusted it slightly and shifted it to 12100 levels.
We expect strong resistance in the 11950-12050 zone.
Further we had also mentioned that usually after a big fall we dont see V shaped recovery and in case it (sharp recovery) comes then there are chances that it wont be able to sustain. For markets to sustain higher levels its important that it consolidate and grinds first and then only start moving up its way up ( make some sort of a base before moving up).
Now what we have seen today is a clear V shaped recovery and we are not sure if markets have made any sort of base yet. Ideally speaking we would have liked to see some sort of consolidation before this bounce. Now since that didnt materialise, there is always a risk about sustainability of this upmove and it will be interesting to see if market manages to hold on to its gain and tries to move further up from here.
In our view, Inspite of a 250+ rally today the overall trend still remains down, the damage done during budget time was a big one and market needs little bit more time to heal itself.Right now it seems markets are trying to move without giving itself a chance to stabilize first and in such scenarios risk of falling back always remains.
In Nutshell, one should not get too excited seeing this pullback and as long as 12050-12100 is not conquered, there is always a risk of markets falling back to the recent lows (11600 levels) and one needs to keep that in mind. However in case market sustains these levels and goes on to cross 12100 in coming 1-2 trading sessions then probably something else is going on and we will have to reanalyze things but for now chances of market giving correction ( timewise and pricewise) remains.
Happy Trading!!
We keep guiding and advising our subscribers during live trading hours through regular whatsapp updates. To join us please click the below link/button or mail to rahulrtn412@yahoo.com or whatsapp:9319321906 (Pls don't call or send text for mkt view/opinion as we will not be able to respond to such msgs)
No comments:
Post a Comment