Medium Term Trend: ↑ UP (Changes to down below 11770)
Global Crisis Pushes Nifty: Market opened in negative territory (around 12230) due to geo-political tensions and sudden jump in crude oil prices. It even dropped below 12200 intraday but recovered just below the end to close at 12230 levels. Down 50 odd points.In the last update we had mentioned that its likely that markets are still in correction/sideways mode and since then markets are broadly trading in 12150-12300 (150 point range) confirming the same.
Today, inspite of plethora of bad news (Geo-political tensions etc) Nifty failed to break this range which is indicative of the fact that maket is still is in sideways/corrective mode. However our analysis and chart reading is now suggesting that corrective/sideways trend is now over/likely to be over soon and Nifty is likely to move in a trend and the chances are that the move will be on upside.
I know many will raise serious doubt over our analysis (some could even find the idea of markets moving up from here laughable) specially considering the various things plaguing the markets right now but when we anlayse markets we have to see beyond the obvious and trust only 'price' and 'charts'. As of today prices and charts are suggesting that its likely that market has hit some kind of low already. To confirm this we need markets to protect 12160-12190 for next couple of trading sessions and then move above 12300.If that happens then there is a very strong (>80%) of markets moving up from here.
In Nutshell, keep an eye of 12150-12190 range if Nifty fails to break these levels in next couple of trading sessions then one more push on the upside is likely. However if it does break (even though the chances are less) then we will have to reanlyse and see things from a fresh perspective.
Happy Trading!
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