Nifty Today : Nifty analysis, Trend and Prediction: January 2020

Tuesday, January 28, 2020

Nifty Analysis: Outlook and Trend for 29th Jan 2020

Medium Term Trend: ↑ UP (Changes to down below 11770)

Bears Returns: Nifty open flattish but found stiff resistance at 12150 levels and crashed to 12050 levels. It closed at 12055,down 60 odd points.

In last update we had mentioned that the way charts were shaping up it seems nifty is ready to make a dash towards higher levels once again. However it wasnt to be and nifty opened with a gap down on Monday below 12200 levels (in line with a crash in all global markets). Weakness in global markets pushed nifty below 12200 and today markets made a new low which broke the previous swing low of 12105. Therefore it must be said the correction which started from 12400 levels is still on.

Now the levels of 11940-11975 assumes a lot of significance. Please keep in mind that overall trend of the market still remains up but in immediate term we may see some more volatility/correction. Bears need to take out previous low (which is sitting around 11930 levels) to make their position even more stronger. On the upside, Nifty needs to take out 12150-12180 levels for bulls to start making an impact and wresting controls from bears. The way option market has set up, it looks like expiry is going to be between 12k and 12200 levels hence real trending move is likely only after budget now.

In nutshell, the weakness in global markets have once again puts the brakes on the upmove and pushed Nifty back in uncertain territory but the overall trend still remains up and serious dent in this upmove is only likely below 11940 11975 levels. Markets are likely to make a trending move only after budget and its highly unlikely that much will happen in next 2 days.

Happy Trading!!

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Saturday, January 25, 2020

Nifty Analysis: Outlook and Trend for 27th Jan 2020

Medium Term Trend: ↑ UP (Changes to down below 11770)

Finding its Feet: Nifty opened flattish but remained steady and inched up all the way to 11270 levels and added 70 points.

In the last post we had mentioned that there is a possibility that Nifty slips all the way to 12050 12k levels, however real danger will come only once this level is taken out.

Nifty was making a new low everyday but it broke the trend in previous session and didnt break the low it had creates previous day. Now today(24th), it went a step further and created a new high as well. This and the way charts are shaping up, suggests that market can try make another dash towards higher level( therefore one is advised against being on the short side for now). Next week is budget week so volatility is expected to be high.

Overall trend of the market was always up but there was a threat building up for the short term which for now, it seems, has been subdued by bulls. Bears had a good opportunity to deal a good blow but bulls have again wrested the initiative.

From a trading perspective, we had booked profits in our long position around 12300+ levels and even created some shorts at those levels and profit booked below 12100 levels. Will be posting the detailed messages shared very soon.

Happy Trading!

Wednesday, January 22, 2020

Nifty Analysis: Outlook and Trend for 23rd Jan 2020

Medium Term Trend: ↑ UP (Changes to down below 11770)

Downmove continues: Nifty continue to fall and today even tested 12100 levels. It closed at 12106 with a loss of 60 odd points.

In last few post we had mentioned very clearly that 12300 levels is a good support however its already tested once and incase its tested again and broken then we can even slip all the way back to 12000 12050 levels. Having said this, real danger will come only when nifty breaks below 12k levels.

Now we are pretty close to12050 12000 range, its become very very interesting to see how mkt reacts once it reaches there. The way option mkt is trading it seems mkt is building a stiff resistance at 12300 levels. Now if mkt fall below 12050 12k levels then in all probability we are going below 11900 levels (11900 was the last low mkt had created in dec). Now if market makes a new low below 11900 then it will be a big bearish move as it would mean 100% retracement of last upmove (11900 to 12430) in less than 100% of time. This can carry huge bearish implications, however will cross that bridge when we get there.

For now one needs to see if 12k holds or not. If it does then bulls are still in game.

Happy Trading!

Monday, January 20, 2020

Nifty Analysis: Outlook and Trend for 21st Jan 2020

Medium Term Trend: ↑ UP (Changes to down below 11770)

Nifty sees a breakdown: Nifty opened strong today above 12400+ but immediately drifted down and kept on slipping throughout the day. it closed with a substantial loss of 125+ points at 12225. Today Nifty has posted a 'bearish engulfing candle' on daily charts (which is a bearish pattern).

In the previous post we had clearly warned and mentioned:-

"it needs a strong move above 12400-425 levels. In the recent times nifty has seen a steady rise from 11900 levels to 12400 so its very much possible that we see some sort of correction in next 1-2 days"

Now thats (again) exactly how the market played out immediately and Nifty gave up more than 200 points from the day high today and broken below 12300 levels. We had also mentioned (in previous posts) that 12300 is a good support but the way markets have bounced back from 12300 is not exuding confidence about the sustainability of the bounce and that market is exhibiting tiredness and lethargy at 12350+ levels which could result in markets giving correction(price wise or timewise) in near term.

Now that we have seen a sharp fall from 12400 levels to sub 12250 levels, we can safely say that the upmove for extremely short term has ended and a correction has started. Please keep in mind that overall trend of the market remains up however for extremely short term , the bounce which began from 11900 levels ( last 8-9 days) seems to be over. Now this correction might last few days or it can get over pretty soon hence its very important to observe markets to see how the correction is developing. If the fall continues to be intense then it can fall towards 12050-12100 levels but shouldn't fall much below these levels. Break of this level could put serious question mark on the overall trend of the market so in likelihood it should hold.

For now we need to see if 12050-12200 level is holding up. If it does then probably the corrective move will be over in few trading sessions and a fresh move on the upside could be expected to start again but if its broken in next 2-3 trading sessions then probably we could see a retest of recent lows of 11900. Bears for now are back in game and next couple of days will decide if they hold their fort and make their position stronger.Ideal strategy would be to wait for this correction to get over and enter only when charts shows that correction is over and fresh upmove has started.

Happy Trading!